Week 19 at Kanas City Chiefs
Despite being five-point underdogs in Kansas City, Vegas expects a shootout between the Chiefs and the Colts. That has pushed the Colts implied team total in the divisional round up higher than 25 points. In the passing game, KC ranks just 25th in aFPA to WRs. T.Y. Hilton hasn't practiced in weeks but keeps playing. He's in a position for a big week again if he can make it through the game. If he struggles to stay on the field, Dontrelle Inman has emerged as the Colts WR2 and makes for a solid sleeper option in the divisional round.
Week 17 at Tennessee Titans
The Colts offensive starters, if healthy, will play a full 60 minutes in Week 17 in what has turned into a play-in game against the Titans. Indianapolis is a 3-point road favorite with an implied team total of 23.25 points. Tennessee is just 26th in aFPA to WRs, and T.Y. Hilton should feast. He torched Adoree Jackson mostly in Week 11, finishing with his best game of the season. With at least eight targets in six consecutive games, Hilton is locked into WR1 status in Week 17.
Week 16 vs. New York Giants
The Colts host the Giants as more than a touchdown favorite with a top five implied team total of 28.25 points in Week 16. New York ranks 14th in aFPA to WRs this season. That's nothing T.Y. Hilton can't beat, even as his practice time has dwindled late in the season to keep him healthy for kickoff. No other Colts WR is on the fantasy radar though.
Week 15 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Indianapolis has an above average implied team total this week against a tough Dallas defense. That implied total is 25 points. However, the Cowboys rank top five in aFPA to RBs, foreshadowing a pass-heavy attack for the Colts. The Cowboys may rank top 10 in aFPA to WRs, but T.Y. Hilton is as dependable as they get in terms of targets lately, with three straight 10+ target games. Monitor his status before kickoff to make sure he's active, but if he is, you have to start him.
Week 14 at Houston Texans
The Colts have a very modest implied team total of 22.75 points this week, with negative game script expected on the road in Houston. The Texans rank only 22nd in aFPA to WRs, and T.Y. Hilton has torched the Texans, as you'll see below. Plus, Browns' WR Antonio Callaway had two 70-yard+ receptions in Houston last week, one negated by holding and one where Callaway fumbled inside the five-yard-line. Hilton has a chance to be elite this week and should, at worst, post low-end WR1 numbers.
Week 13 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Remember when facing the Jaguars defense was a near death sentence for a player's fantasy prospects? That's not the case anymore. The Jags are tough against RBs (2nd in aFPA), but the Colts have an implied team total of 25.5 on the road. This should mean the Jags are a pass funnel offense this week, despite ranking 10th in aFPA to WRs, benefiting Colts pass catchers. Jacksonville's offense also operates at a faster pace when Leonard Fournette is out, which should mean additional offensive plays for the Colts too. Heavy targets should continue to come T.Y. Hilton's way, especially now with Jack Doyle on IR. Consider him a volume-based high-end WR2 with WR1 upside in this match-up.
Week 12 vs. Miami Dolphins
The Colts come off another strong offensive performance against the Titans, and this week, Indianapolis has the highest implied team total on the Sunday slate, nearing 30 expected points. Miami ranks just 20th in aFPA to WRs this season as well. As the undisputed top target in this offense with a quarterback that has thrown at least three touchdown passes in seven consecutive games, T.Y. Hilton is a WR1 in Week 12.
Week 11 vs. Tennesee Titans
The Colts have a high implied team total of 25 at home against Tennessee, and maybe the best offensive line in the NFL right now, helping the Colts air attack by protecting Andrew Luck better than he's ever been protected. This week against a pass funnel Titans defense that ranks second in aFPA to RBs but only 28th against WRs, T.Y. Hilton should thrive. He's back in the WR2 mix for us, against a Titans defense he torched with Andrew Luck two years ago for a couple 20-plus-point PPR games. No other Colts receivers are on the fantasy radar though, as the tight ends and running backs operate as the secondary options to Hilton in the pass game in this offense.
Week 10 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Colts have a middle-of-the-road implied team total against the Jaguars this week, and Jacksonville ranks 3rd in aFPA to WRs. T.Y. Hilton is expected to see shadow coverage from Jalen Ramsey. With just nine targets in two weeks since coming off an injury, there is again risk in starting Hilton this week. Quarterbacks are only targeting Ramsey 15 percent of the time this season with a completion percentage less than 50 percent. Hilton is a risky WR2 in Week 10.
Week 8 at Oakland Raiders
T.Y. Hilton was eased into things in his return from injury last week, playing less than 60 percent of snaps but cashing in for two touchdowns. So we have some concern that he won't be back to full snaps again this week, which could cap his upside, but the Raiders present far too good of a match-up for Hilton in an offense that's throwing more passes than any other in the NFL. He will be, at the very least, a WR2 in Week 8.
