Fantasy Upside
After trading Brandin Cooks to the Patriots, the Saints signed Ted Ginn in free agency to help fill the need for a vertical threat in Sean Payton’s offense. Ginn isn’t Cooks, but he does possess more speed than any receiver on the Saints’ depth chart. He was also listed as the starter opposite Michael Thomas on the team’s first unofficial depth chart and drew praise from QB Drew Brees. Even if he doesn’t catch a ton of passes game-to-game, Ginn will have weekly opportunities to tear the top off a defense in the Saints’ explosive passing game.
Fantasy Downside
Ginn has always had speed, but, unfortunately, he’s also a drop machine. Brees loves to spread the ball around and he has plenty of options in the passing game, from Thomas to Snead, Ginn and Coby Fleener. The Saints also have a new pass-catching back in third-round pick Alvin Kamara, who could be used in a Reggie Bush/Darren Sproles-type role in Payton’s offense.
2017 Bottom Line
Ginn has appeal as a WR3/FLEX option, but he’s going to frustrate owners like he does every year. There will be some weeks where his big play ability elevates your squad. Then there will be other times when he gives you next to no production and you'll kick yourself for starting him. If you’re fine playing Russian roulette with your flex spot every week, then Ginn offers some value at his current ADP of 14.06. Just don’t fool yourself into believing Ginn is going to be a different player just because he signed with New Orleans. He is who he is.
Week 16 vs. Atlanta
Ted Ginn Jr. had four catches for 64 yards against Washington last week, including a 30-yard touchdown reception. Ginn now has a touchdown in four of his last five games, and has been targeted 32 times in that span. The Panthers have looked his way frequently as of late, which is reminiscent of the way he finished last season.
This week, Ginn could be in for another good game against a Falcons pass defense that has allowed the third most passing yards per game this season. Ginn is always risky because he has such boom/bust tendencies, but with his targets up and a nice matchup, he could be worth gambling on as a WR3 if you need upside in your lineup.
Week 14 vs. San Diego
Ted Ginn Jr. had a 55-yard touchdown reception last week against Seattle and was the lone bright spot in a blowout loss for the Panthers. Ginn finished the game with five catches for 80 yards and now has a touchdown in three straight weeks. He and Cam Newton have looked more like their 2015 versions the last few weeks.
This week Ginn faces a San Diego defense that gives up yards but not a lot of touchdowns to opposing passers. They’ve allowed only 17 touchdown passes all season, tied for 10th in the league, and they lead the league in interceptions. While Ginn has boom-bust potential in any week, he’s likely no more than a desperation play in a game that could turn ugly.
Week 12 vs. Oakland
Ted Ginn Jr. caught a 40-yard touchdown pass last week against the Saints. Good thing too, because he only ended up with 46 yards on three receptions for the entire game. Ginn is always hit or miss and a lot of his production is reliant upon the occasional big play. Desperate owners got lucky with him last week. Against a Raiders team that has given up 18 touchdown passes and the fifth worst passing yards per attempt to opposing passers this year, can Ginn repeat his performance? If you’re desperate, you could do worse than gamble on another big play from Ginn in a nice matchup.
Week 11 vs. New Orleans
Ted Ginn Jr. has quietly had five receptions in each of his past four games. While he hasn’t eclipsed 54 yards in any of those contests and has yet to score a touchdown this season, it’s good to see Cam Newton continuing to target him, despite having a healthy Kelvin Benjamin in the offense.
Ginn is a risky fantasy option, but if you’re desperate, he has some boom-bust potential this week against the Saints. New Orleans allows more passing yards per game than any other team in the league this year and Ginn has been known to make big plays from time to time. If he gets another five catches this week, he could be in for a quality game.
Fantasy Upside
Ted Ginn Jr. is coming off a career year. Stepping in for the injured Kelvin Benjamin, Ginn led all Carolina wide receivers with 44 catches, 739 yards, and a team-high 10 touchdowns. He also retained his role as the primary punt returner, averaging 10.3 yards per punt return on the year. Ginn remains a lightning fast deep receiving option for strong-armed quarterback Cam Newton, and should continue to be an important part of Carolina’s quick-strike attack. Two of Ginn’s three best seasons have come as a Panther, making it more likely he’ll continue to thrive in Carolina.
Fantasy Downside
At 31, Ginn should be starting the downside of his career. For a speedster, that downside usually comes with a sharp edge once that extra gear is gone. The return of Benjamin to the starting lineup will affect the number of targets Ginn receives, as could any progression from last year’s second-round pick Devin Funchess. Ginn’s 10 receiving touchdowns last year were a big reason for his fantasy success, and because that’s double his previous career high, it seems unlikely he’ll continue to score at such a pace.
2016 Bottom Line
Ginn is going toward the end of drafts and he’s not a bad boom-or-bust option off the bench in most fantasy leagues. While he’s unlikely to reproduce his 10 touchdowns from last year, he will benefit from playing in a potent offense that led the league last season by averaging 31.3 points per game. He has additional value in best ball leagues, where owners don’t have to guess which weeks he’ll catch a long touchdown pass.
Super Bowl vs. Denver
Ted Ginn only caught two passes in the NFC Championship Game, but he ended up with 52 yards, as he remains a very good deep threat for the Panthers. Additionally, he took a reverse 22 yards for a touchdown, setting the pace early on in what turned into a blowout victory over the Cardinals to make it to the Super Bowl.
Ginn is a little bit of an all-or-nothing type of fantasy option, but he’s been the most consistent of the Panther receivers this season and seems to have a nice rapport with quarterback Cam Newton. Ginn should be used in most fantasy leagues as a risky, high upside option behind the two Denver starters and could be a cheaper option in most lineups that may allow for better options at the RB, QB, or TE spots.
NFC Championship vs. Arizona
Ted Ginn was a little banged up going into the game against Seattle last week, and he ended up ineffective, missing the only ball that was thrown his way. His only fantasy points came from an 11 yard run, as the Panther offense was clicking early in the victory.
This week, Ginn will face the league’s eighth best pass defense and may be lined up against cornerback Patrick Peterson, one of the best in football. Ginn has speed and big play ability and has been productive with Cam Newton throwing the ball, but he’s a risky, boom or bust type of player and we have him as one of the least valuable starting WR’s this week. Use him at your own risk.
Week 19 vs. Seattle
Though he only had 44 catches and 739 yards this season, Ted Ginn was quietly tied for tenth in the NFL this year with 10 touchdown receptions, the same number as Antonio Brown and A.J. Green, and one more than the likes of Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson. Ginn is an inconsistent option in the passing game, but he can make big plays that sometimes pay off for fantasy owners that gamble on him.
This week, he may struggle against a tough Seattle defense, as he had only one catch for 18 yards when they met early in the season. Seattle allowed the least amount of receiving touchdowns this year, and the second least amount of yards to opposing passers, making Ginn perhaps a little riskier than usual. Fantasy owners should consider him a boom or bust prospect this week that might be worth a flyer as a flex or WR2 option in leagues where you need some low cost value, but make no mistake that he’s more likely to net you one point than he is to net you 20.
Week 17 vs. Tampa Bay
Ted Ginn had only one catch for nine yards last week against the Falcons, and he suffered an injury that will leave him questionable for the season finale against the Bucs. He’s a low end option regardless due to his inconsistent targets and production, but if he’s active, he’s always a hail mary option in league’s that reward long touchdowns, even if he’s a risky boom/bust player in all formats. Fantasy owners would probably be better looking elsewhere whether he’s active or not.
