Week 6 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Patriots have the highest implied team total of Week 6 at 31.5 points. The Chiefs are bottom five in the league in aFPA to TEs. Gronk looked good in Week 5 after dealing with ankle issues. He played 91 percent of snaps a week after only playing 67 percent. He's still been limited in practice this week, but ten days between games should certainly help. On the field, seven targets in Week 5 with Julian Edelman and Josh Gordon in the mix were also encouraging. Be patient. The touchdowns should come. The tight end position is so thin anyway that you'd be crazy not to keep starting Gronk in Week 6.
Week 5 vs. Indianapolis Colts (TNF)
The Patriots have the highest implied team total for Week 5 at 31 points, coming off a dominant performance against the Dolphins. Indy ranks just ninth in aFPA against TEs, but the Colts offense may have trouble moving the ball with a banged up O-Line and down its best pass-catcher in T.Y. Hilton. That could lead to even more possessions for the Patriots offense. Gronkowski has been double-teamed constantly through four weeks, and owners have to monitor his status with an ankle injury. The hope is Julian Edelman's return from suspension will free up Gronkowski more moving forward. Nevertheless, the tight end position in fantasy is a wasteland. You have to keep starting Gronkowski each week. His ceiling is among the elites at the position.
Week 4 vs. Miami Dolphins
Rob Gronkowski used garbage time last week to get some below-average production in Week 3 after a brutal Week 2. Confidence should remain high in Week 4, with the Patriots having a 27.5-point implied total. Miami only ranks 17th in aFPA to TEs and allowed two touchdowns in the one game Gronk was healthy for against them last year. Continue to start him.
Week 3 at Detroit Lions
The Patriots have the second-highest implied team total of 30 points for Week 3. Gronk had a poor Week 2 against the best defense in the conference, but that's no reason to worry about him moving forward. His ceiling is the overall TE1 this week. Start him with confidence.
Week 2 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Patriots WRs face the toughest secondary in the league. Jacksonville was first last year in aFPA to WRs. This likely means more targets funneled to Gronk, even if shutdown corner Jalen Ramsey moves over to cover him. The Jags were just 16th in aFPA to TEs last year. It's Gronk. You start him no matter who he plays.
Week 1 vs. Houston Texans
Julian Edelman is suspended, clearing the way for Rob Gronkowski to have an extremely high Week 1 ceiling. Not only is Gronk our top TE this week, but we only have Antonio Brown and DeAndre Hopkins projected for more points than Gronk among WRs. Get excited. You should be swimming in points come Sunday evening.
Fantasy Upside
There is a massive projected gap between the three elite TEs this season, including Gronkowski and the rest of the fantasy tight end field. Plus, Gronkowski's injury concerns have depressed his ADP compared to previous years. The early third round for Gronk has not been seen in some time. He's finished as a top-two TE in five of the past seven seasons in PPR. He could also be in line for a target boost with Brandin Cooks gone and Julian Edelman suspended four games.
Fantasy Downside
Gronk has had surgeries on his back, forearm and knee in recent years. He has missed 24 regular-season games the past five seasons because of those injuries. Due to his body frame and over-the-middle usage, he carries injury risk.
2018 Bottom Line
The price is right for Gronk in 2018. If he slips to the third round in your drafts, it should be close to an automatic pick. The upside far outweighs the injury risk.
Super Bowl vs. Philadelphia Eagles
What matters in this different one-game format is not so much how many points we project each player for but how much each player costs per point. In FanDuel's half-point PPR format, here's how we value the tight ends, strictly in terms of dollar/FanDuel point: Rob Gronkowski>Zach Ertz>Trey Burton>Dwayne Allen.
As for DraftKings' full PPR scoring, here's how we value the tight ends in terms of dollar/DraftKings point: Zach Ertz>Trey Burton>Rob Gronkowski>Dwayne Allen.
AFC Conference Championship vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
There is some mystery to how healthy Tom Brady is going into the conference championship game because of an apparent injury to his right hand. Reports out of New England range from Brady is okay to it will affect him slightly. However, Rob Gronkowski's playoff production can't be denied, even if the Jaguars are the best defense in our aFPA versus TEs. Gronk has scored seven touchdowns in his last six playoff games. Fade him at your own risk.
Divisional Round vs. Tennessee Titans
The Patriots have the highest implied team total as 14-point home favorites in Vegas this week, and that total is a fantasy juicy 31 points. This is also a pass funnel defense as the Titans run defense finished fourth in the NFL. The Titans are just 28th in aFPA vs. TEs and allowed a big day from Travis Kelce last week, despite Kelce leaving early with a concussion. Gronk is the elite option at the position this week and is worth paying up for if you can figure out how to fit him in your DFS lineups.
