Week 9 vs. New Orleans Saints
Rob Gronkowski had another great game last week, finishing 4-41-1 on four targets. He's now had at least 40 yards and a touchdown in three straight games as he's found his role in this offense. Gronk's role might be affected by the arrival of Antonio Brown, but it could be for the best as it takes attention away from the tight end. This week Gronk faces a Saints defense he struggled against earlier in the year (2-11), but a lot has changed since then. We like Gronk as a strong TE1 play this week in a favorable matchup vs. New Orleans. The Saints are tied for allowing the third-most touchdowns to tight ends this season.
Week 8 at New York Giants
Rob Gronkowski has been heavily involved in the Bucs' offense ever since O.J. Howard's injury. Despite claiming he came in to be a blocking tight end earlier in the season, Gronk has been very productive as a receiver. In the three games without Howard, Gronk is averaging 7.3 targets and finishing with an average stat line of 4.3-64-0.7. Those are easily TE1 numbers, especially in a season where the position is shallow with talent. He does face a Giants defense that's been tough on tight ends this season, but we still like Gronk as a top-five tight end play this week.
Week 7 at Las Vegas Raiders
After a slow start, Rob Gronkowski has seemed to found a nice role in this Bucs' offense. He had his best game of the season last week, finishing 5-78-1 on a season-high eight targets. He's averaging 3.8 receptions and 51.8 yards over his last four games, and that's about what we're projecting for him in Week 7 against the Raiders. The Raiders gave up 108 yards to Travis Kelce earlier in the season, so there's opportunity for success against this defense. Gronk is in TE1 territory.
Week 6 vs. Green Bay Packers
Rob Gronkowski finished with a season-high 52 yards last week on three receptions (six targets). Gronk has 12 receptions through five games, and half of those receptions came in one game. He might see more snaps with O.J. Howard done, but we'd expect his receiving role to decrease with Chris Godwin's return. It's also worth noting Gronk has not scored all season. He's still in TE1 range due to the shallow nature of the position, but don't expect many dominating performances from Gronk like we saw with the Patriots.
Week 5 at Chicago Bears
Despite the Bucs being down several offensive weapons, Rob Gronkowski was still not featured as an offensive weapon in Week 4. He played on 85% of the offensive snaps, but finished with just one catch for 29 yards on three targets. Even with O.J. Howard done for the year, it seems the Bucs are content with keeping Gronk as a blocker in this offense. He might get some increased looks with Howard out, but the Bucs also like Cameron Brate, who scored a touchdown last week.
Week 4 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
After a zero-catch game in Week 2, Rob Gronkowski saw a season-high seven targets in Week 3, finishing 6-48, in easily his most productive game. Gronk also played a season-high 93% of the offensive snaps, the first time he's topped 80% in a game this season. Despite the small breakout, Gronk's main role in this offense is to block. He's been open about that, and so has coach Bruce Arians. He's not really worth fantasy consideration until he consistently produces.
Week 3 at Denver Broncos
Rob Gronkowski had a goose egg in Week 2 after catching just two passes for 11 yards in Week 1. In other words, he's been useless in fantasy so far this season. When asked about his role, Bruce Arians was pretty blunt: "We haven’t had that many red-zone opportunities and I don’t see him running 40 yards past people any more. We brought him in to just play tight end. If that means no catches, that means no catches. If it means 10 catches, it means 10 catches because he's open and that's where the ball goes." Gronk isn't worth starting in fantasy this week.
Week 2 vs. Carolina Panthers
Rob Gronkowski is back, but not better than ever. Gronk had a quiet return, finishing with 11 yards on two catches off three targets. The good news is Gronk was able to play on 77% of the offensive snaps. But his low production makes him a touchdown dependent TE2.
Week 1 at New Orleans Saints
Rob Gronkowski is back after sitting out all of 2019, and he's back with a familiar face in Tom Brady. While there's some initial skepticism on Gronk considering his play fell off in 2018 and he's been out of football for a year, there's also reason for optimism. He's playing with Brady again, and although he wasn't dominant in 2018, he was still the No. 11 scoring tight end in fantasy that year. We expect him to be that fringe TE1 player again in 2020, and he's near that range in Week 1 against the Saints. We're projecting a 3.2-45.9 performance out of Gronk this week.
Fantasy Upside
Rob Gronkowski is back after taking one season off, and he joins a high-powered offense with his friend Tom Brady. Gronk was a force when he was active as he has the highest career yards per target of any player (with at least 500 career targets). Even in his final year when he wasn’t at his peak, Gronk still finished as the No. 8 tight end (half-PPR) in fantasy points per game.
Fantasy Downside
There are many reasons to be skeptical of Gronk in fantasy this season. For starters, he returns after taking a full year off, and he looked trimmed down in offseason photos. Second, he joins a Buccaneers team coached by Bruce Arians who has a bad history with tight ends. In Arians’ last nine seasons (as head coach or offensive coordinator), he’s never had a tight end finish in the top-18 in total fantasy points scored for tight ends. And finally, Gronk’s health. From 2016-2018, Gronk missed 15 games due to injury and played through a questionable injury in 11 games.
2020 Bottom Line
This isn’t the Gronk that spiked his way to 17 receiving touchdowns in a single season. There’s enough here to make you pause about drafting him, but there are also plenty of worse options. The tight end pool in fantasy is shallow, and Gronk at least offers some promise. If he’s able to stay relatively healthy, he should finish with low-TE1 numbers.
