Week 6 vs. Cincinnati
Rob Gronkowski had five catches for 109 yards on seven targets in New England's 33-13 win against the Browns in Week 5. Last year, Gronk held a 23.5-percent market share in the red zone for the Patriots, but has lost some targets to Bennett so far in this area of the field. Gronkowski did out-snap Bennett 81-to-69 percent last week. With Brady back under center, Gronk ran 34 routes after just 17 total in the previous two games. Gronk will be high-end TE1 against the Bengals, who grade out as an average team in aFPA against the position.
With just one catch in his first two games back, and running a measly 13 routes on 22 pass plays in Week 4, his hamstring injury has really limited him so far in 2016. Last year Gronk held a 23.5 percent market share in the red zone for the Patriots so it may not take many targets to make his fantasy day. Gronk will be a mid TE1 against the Browns, who grade out as one of the worst teams in the league against the position.
Week 4 vs. Buffalo
Gronkowski was targeted just once in Week 4 and spent most of the game blocking. Last year Gronk held a 23.5-percent market share in the red zone for the Patriots, so it may not take many targets to make his fantasy day. Gronk will be a mid-range TE1 against the Bills, who grade out as an average team against the position.
Week 3 vs. Houston
Rob Gronkowski could make his season debut against the Texans in Week 3. Last year, Gronk held a 23.5 percent market share in the red zone for the Patriots, so it may not take many targets to make his fantasy day. Gronk will be a mid TE1 against the Texans, who grade out as one of the better teams in the league against the position.
Week 2 vs. Miami
Rob Gronkowski (hamstring) did not play in Week 1 and is reported to not “be close to 100 percent”, even if he does play in Week 2. Last year Gronk held a 23.5 percent market share in the red zone for the Patriots so it may not take many targets to make his fantasy day. Gronk will be a mid TE1 against the Dolphins, who grade out as one of the better teams in the league against the position.
Week 1 at Arizona
Rob Gronkowski (hamstring) has said his injury has limited him in practice throughout the week. He comes into Week 1 against the Cardinals in his own tier at the position cumulatively, finishing first in yards after the catch and receiving yards, second in total touchdowns and fourth in targets last season for tight ends. He also held a 23.5 percent market share in the red zone for the Patriots. Gronk will be a TE1 against the Cardinals, who grade out middle of the pack in TE aFPA.
Fantasy Upside
It’s saying something when if a player does not finish #1 at the position it would be a huge disappointment but that is Rob Gronkowski. He has been extremely consistent registering 29 touchdowns in the last 35 games averaging 78 yards per game over that span. He finished twelfth in red zone targets last season of all pass catchers and is head and shoulders above the rest of the tight end field.
Fantasy Downside
There is increased depth at the tight end position in New England with the addition of Martellus Bennett. This could in theory cut into his red zone involvement but Gronk has performed just fine with an elite TE option alongside him before. Considering his injury history and the fact that Tom Brady will miss the first four games of the season could possibly knock him out of first round consideration in redraft.
2016 Bottom Line
Gronk can be moved around and line up wide and be a matchup nightmare for any team. He could see a dip in targets this year but let’s get real, Gronk has four top-two finishes at the position in the past five years and is in a tier all by himself at the top of the postion.
AFC Championship at Denver
Gronk put up a monster 7-83-2 line last weekend, against a top ten aFPA matchup, reminding us Gronk is matchup proof. This weekend on the road against Denver, Gronk faces the friendliest fantasy matchup on the Patriots. Denver's defense is ranked inside the top eight stingiest in our aFPA to every offensive position, save TE, where they are ranked 22nd. Our top option every week of the season he was healthy, Gronk is our top tight end this weekend, with only four teams remaining.
Week 19 vs Kansas City
To the surprise of no one, Gronk finished the season as fantasy's top tight end. He enters this Divisional Round our top tight end option, again to the surprise of no one. In PPR, though, we are giving Travis Kelce a slight edge. I admit it's weird to see a name other than Gronk at that top slot, but Gronk is not far behind, if at all.
Week 17 at Miami
We come to week 17, and a healthy Gronk is our top-ranked option on the weekend at his position. An injury that cost Gronk essentially a game and a half is the only reason he wasn't our top option 17 consecutive weeks. While Week 16 was another "floor" game for Gronk, with a 4-86 line off six targets, he rolls into Miami this weekend with a motivated Patriots group seeking to clinch home field advantage, versus an already eliminated Dolphins team which has not been strong (18th ranked aFPA) versus opposing TEs.
As I've said almost every other week this season: If you have Gronk, start Gronk.
