Week 19 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers go west to east for the second consecutive week to take on the Patriots in New England with a trip to the AFC Championship game on the line. New England is a shrinking four-point favorite with a middle-of-the-pack implied team total of 25.5 points. The Chargers rank top five in aFPA to QBs, which makes Tom Brady a very risky option in the divisional round. Even though the Chargers rank top ten in aFPA to TEs as well, Rob Gronkowski still ranks top four at the position this week thanks to an utter lack of good tight ends left. Obviously, his floor is zero though at this point.
Week 17 vs. New York Jets
The Patriots should send their starters out for a full 60 minutes this week in an effort to lock up a first-round bye in the playoffs. New England also has an outside chance at home field advantage with a win and Chiefs and Chargers losses. Because of this, New England is among the highest implied team totals this week at 29.25 points after being installed as almost two-touchdown favorites. Tom Brady is in a bounce-back spot against a defense ranked dead last in aFPA to QBs. However, Gronk giveth and Gronk taketh away in 2018. His floor is zero points, as evidenced by last week. His ceiling is high-end TE1. The state of fantasy TE keeps him among those ranked as a TE1, but he's extremely volatile in Week 17.
Week 16 vs. Buffalo Bills
The Patriots certainly have not looked like the Patriots over the past two weeks, but against the Bills this week, New England still has the third-highest implied team total on the Week 16 slate of 28.75 points. Buffalo ranks fourth in aFPA to TEs, and Gronk struggled against the Bills in the first meeting, only catching three of eight targets. The state of fantasy TE is such that Gronk is still a weekly TE1, but those with Gronk have seen the roller coaster it is to roster him in 2018. Flip a coin on whether you see the floor or ceiling Gronk in Week 16.
Week 15 at Pittsburgh Steelers
As usual, there are a lot of reasons to like Patriots players in fantasy this week. New England has an implied team total of 27.5, among the highest in the league. Only Baltimore is averaging more offensive plays per game this season than New England, and only Baltimore and Dallas have more offensive plays over the past three weeks. Plus, this game has an over/under of 52, among the highest of Week 15. Pittsburgh ranks just 25th in aFPA to TEs, and Gronk's re-emergence last week has us very excited for more this time around, as he has a strong history against this opponent. Gronk is averaging more than 120 yards and 1.25 touchdowns in his last four regular season games against Pittsburgh.
Week 14 at Miami Dolphins
The New England Patriots head to Miami with a top five implied team total, facing a defense that ranks just 29th in total defense this season. New England struggled at Hard Rock Stadium surprisingly, but this Dolphins defensive unit doesn't have the pieces it had last year. Miami ranks poorly in aFPA to TEs, but inconsistent targets keep Gronk out of the top tier of TEs at this point in the season. On the plus side, he was removed from the injury report Thursday and Miami has hemorrhaged scores to this position. Outside the big names at TE, few offer better fantasy playoff TE upside than Gronk.
Week 13 vs. Minnesota Vikings
The New England Patriots have a healthy implied team total of 27 points this week in a game hovering around an over/under of 50. Minnesota ranks 11th in aFPA to TEs, but it's still an easier match-up than the top five rating they have against WRs. Rob Gronkowski's return last week was extremely encouraging. He saw four end zone targets, converting one of them. At a position so thin, Gronk is a sure fire start each week for the rest of the season.
Week 12 at New York Jets
The Patriots come off the bye week motivated to not lose consecutive games, and their implied team total reflects that. New England is tied for the second most expected points on the Sunday-Monday slate at 28.5 points. Rob Gronkowski looks poised to return from back and ankle injuries, with the extra rest from the bye week, but the Jets are top 10 in aFPA to TEs. Regardless, we imagine few fantasy teams have a better option to start at TE than Gronk on their rosters. Gronk did score twice in his last match-up against this team a year ago and still had seven or more targets in three of his last four games this season. Few have the weekly ceiling at TE that Gronk does, which keeps him among the top five TE options in Week 12.
Week 10 at Green Bay Packers
The Patriots only have the eighth-highest implied team total of the Sunday slate at 26.5 points, a departure from their usual spot near the top of that weekly list. Rob Gronkowski continues to practice on a limited basis with back/ankle issues. Fantasy owners should continue to prepare to not have Gronk in Week 10.
Week 8 vs. Green Bay Packers
In a showdown between Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers in Week 9, expect a lot of points. New England has a monster implied team total of 31.5 points, highest of the week. It just hasn't happened for Gronk though since Week 1. First, he battled an ankle issue, and now he's dealing with back problems. He was downgraded from limited Wednesday to DNP on Thursday, a bad sign for his availability Sunday. If he plays, the landscape of the TE position dictates that you have to keep starting him, but given the injury report, be prepared to find another option.
Week 8 at Buffalo Bills
The Patriots head to Buffalo Monday night to face a Bills team they've averaged 33.7 points against in their last three meetings. New England has also scored at least 38 points in each of its last four games and has a Week 8 implied team total of 29 points. All great signs if Rob Gronkowski can return from back spasms. He practiced on a limited basis Thursday, and hopefully, we get some indication of his status before early kickoffs Sunday. The final injury report will come out Saturday. If he's active, you play him. Just hope we find that out well before Monday evening.
