Week 2 vs. Atlanta Falcons
Rob Gronkowski is still here, and he's doing much more than blocking in the Bucs offense. Gronk started the year with an 8-90-2 stat line on eight targets. The return of O.J. Howard was essentially non-existent as Howard only played six total snaps. In fact, Cameron Brate out-played Howard by appearing in 18 offensive snaps. We thought Howard would have a bigger role after returning from injury, but it's clear Gronk is the only tight end worth caring about in this offense. He should be viewed as a top 10 tight end heading into his Week 2 matchup against the Falcons.
Week 1 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Rob Gronkowski is returning for another season, his second post-retirement. The 32-year-old tight end looked pretty good in 2020, finishing with over 600 yards and seven touchdowns. But the Bucs are getting back O.J. Howard this year, who could eat into Gronk's production. Also, while Gronk did have a solid season, he also finished with two receptions or less in 12 of 20 games (including postseason) last year. He's not the worst play at tight end, but he's outside of our top 12 in Week 1. We're projecting around 2-3 receptions for about 40 yards from Gronk.
Fantasy Upside
Rob Gronkowski got off to a slow start last season but started to pick things up as he continued his first year back from retirement. From Week 5 on, Gronkowski averaged 5.3 targets per game and scored seven touchdowns, finishing as the No. 8 scoring tight end (half-PPR).
Fantasy Downside
Gronkowski was very touchdown-dependent for his fantasy scoring as he averaged just 38.9 yards per game in 2020, his lowest mark since his rookie season. He also set a career-low in catch percentage (58.4%) meaning he wasn’t converting his targets into catches. With O.J. Howard back and healthy this season, along with Antonio Brown playing a full year and the arrival of Giovani Bernard, it’s hard to see Gronk getting the same volume of targets as last year. And if his catch percentage remains low, it’ll be really tough for Gronk to put up fantasy points consistently.
2021 Bottom Line
Howard’s return to the lineup is likely going to be bad news for Gronk. We’re expecting lower total numbers for Gronk this season in receptions, yards and touchdowns despite the fact there’s an extra game on the schedule. This is an offense loaded with talent, and we’d expect Gronk to play more of a blocking role with an occasional catch or two each game. We have Gronk ranked around TE20 for this season, making him a bad value given his ADP.
Week 17 vs. Atlanta Falcons
Even with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown combining for 300 receiving yards and four touchdowns last week, Rob Gronkowski still had a productive 2-58-2 game. Gronk has been inconsistent with his yardage (four games below 15 yards), but he's scored seven touchdowns in his last 10 games. And while he's had some down-yardage games, he's usually reliable enough to get 30-40 yards. He gets a solid matchup this week against the Falcons, who have allowed the third-most receiving yards and third-most receiving touchdowns from tight ends this season. Gronk finished 3-29-0 in Week 15 against the Falcons.
Week 16 at Detroit Lions
Rob Gronkowski matched Mike Evans and Antonio Brown for the team-lead in targets last week, but he only finished 3-29. Not converting his targets into receptions has been a problem for Gronk this season as he has a career-low in catch percentage (57.7%). Gronk has had some productive games this year, but he now also has seven games below 30 yards. He has a high ceiling due to his targets and red zone presence, but he'll be a boom-or-bust play in Week 16 against the Lions. It is worth noting Detroit has allowed the third-fewest receiving yards to tight ends this season.
Week 15 at Atlanta Falcons
Rob Gronkowski found the end zone last week, but that's all he did as he finished with just the one two-yard reception. It's the third time this season Gronk has finished a game with just one catch, but overall he's been pretty reliable. In the 11 games since O.J. Howard's injury, Gronk has finished with 40+ yards seven times (63%). He's not putting up Travis Kelce numbers, but he's been a solid low-end TE1 play most weeks. He gets a solid matchup this week against the Falcons, who have allowed the fifth-most receptions and fourth-most receiving touchdowns to tight ends this season. Gronk remains a low-end TE1 play.
Week 14 vs. Minnesota Vikings
Despite the Bucs having Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones, it was Rob Gronkowski who came away as the star in the Bucs' last outing. Gronk saw seven targets and finished 6-106, his first 100-yard game with the Bucs. Aside from a weird two-yard game, Gronk has been pretty consistent since O.J. Howard's injury, averaging 3.5 receptions for 49.4 yards. That's about what we have projected for him this week in a favorable matchup against the Vikings (No. 25 aFPA). Minnesota has given up the ninth-most receiving yards to tight ends this season, so Gronk has some low-end TE1 appeal in Week 14.
Week 12 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Rob Gronkowski has been the odd man out since Antonio Brown's arrival. In the three games with Brown, Gronk has a total of five receptions. Although that's a little misleading, because Gronk has still seen a healthy 15 targets in those three games, an average of five per game. Despite some of his recent struggles, we still like Gronk as a low-end TE1 play. He gets an average matchup against the Chiefs (No. 22 aFPA) in Week 12.
Week 11 vs. Los Angeles Rams
Rob Gronkowski was averaging 4.3 receptions for 58.3 yards in the four games without O.J. Howard and before Antonio Brown's arrival. Since Brown arrived, Gronk is averaging 1.5 receptions for 26.5 yards. It's a small two-game sample size, but it's not a promising trend. The good news, however, is Gronk scored for the fourth time in the last five games. Backup tight end Cameron Brate also caught a touchdown while finishing 3-31. Gronk still has appeal as a low-end TE1, but as much as he did before Brown's arrival. He'll face a Rams defense that has allowed the eighth-most receptions to tight ends so far this season.
Week 10 at Carolina Panthers
Rob Gronkowski had a healthy six targets last week, but finished with a poor game, catching just one pass for two yards. Also noteworthy is the fact that in the first game with Antonio Brown active, Gronk played a season-low 54% of the offensive snaps with no reports of an injury. Despite the downsides, it's still promising to see Gronk get six targets. He should still be viewed as a low-end TE1 play, even in a tough matchup against the Panthers this week. Gronk had a goose egg the last time he played Carolina in Week 2, but things have changed since then, most notably the absence of O.J. Howard.
