Week 3 at Jaguars
Mike Gesicki emerged with a strong Week 2 game, leading all Dolphins players in the top receiving categories. He saw a healthy 11 targets and finished 8-130-1, setting career-highs in receptions and receiving yards in a game. Gesicki had a promising finish to the 2019 season, and is off to a solid start in 2020. He gets a favorable matchup in Week 3 against a Jaguars defense that's allowed the most receiving yards to tight ends so far this season. We like Gesicki as a lower-end TE1 play in Week 3.
Week 2 vs. Buffalo Bills
As we figured, the Dolphins putting Durham Smythe as the starting tight end on the depth chart meant nothing. Mike Gesicki led all tight ends in playing time (73% of the offensive snaps). He had an OK outing, finishing 3-30 on five targets. Gesicki is just outside of the top 12 tight end options, making him a fringe TE1 option. He draws a tough matchup against the Bills where we have him projected to finish with a similar statline as last week.
Week 1 at New England Patriots
Mike Gesicki was a fantasy sleeper heading into 2020, but the Dolphins' depth chart release has added some skepticism to that. Surprisingly, Durham Smythe was listed as Miami's starting tight end over Gesicki. We won't read too much into the depth chart as Gesicki offers way more upside than Smythe. Still, Gesicki isn't a strong fantasy option at tight end. He played well down the stretch in 2019, but still had six games with 20 yards or less. Until he's consistently producing, Gesicki isn't much more than a TE2 or matchup-based play.
Fantasy Upside
Mike Gesicki showed promise in his second season, finishing 51-570-5 on 89 targets, all second-best numbers for Miami in 2019. He especially came on strong late, outscoring all but seven tight ends over the final seven weeks. Miami didn’t make any major changes to receivers this offseason, so expect Gesicki to be third in the receiving order behind DeVante Parker and Preston Williams. Gesicki turns 25 this year, which is the age where we typically see tight ends peak.
Fantasy Downside
Most of Gesicki’s production last year came after injuries to Dolphins receivers. Miami lost Williams and Jakeem Grant in the second half of the season, forcing Gesicki into a larger role. With those players coming back, and the arrival of running back Matt Breida, we could easily see Gesicki’s targets go down. Gesicki only averaged 5.5 targets per game last season with a 57.3% catch percentage, so he really can’t afford to see fewer targets in 2020.
2020 Bottom Line
Once you get outside of the elite tight end options, there are a few players who offer some intrigue, and Gesicki is one of them. He’s more of a receiving threat than a blocking tight end, and could spend some time in the slot in Chan Gailey’s offense. He’s an interesting player, but shouldn’t be viewed as someone you want to start every week. He should be seen as a late-round flier in leagues where you can start multiple tight ends.
Week 17 at New England Patriots
Mike Gesicki had one of his best games of the season last week, finishing 6-82-2. Gesicki is an odd player as he's been relevant for a few games this season, but has struggled to be consistent. He likely won't be a good option this week in a tough matchup against the Patriots. He finished with 11 yards off of one catch when he played New England earlier in the year.
Week 16 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Mike Gesicki finished 4-47 on eight targets last week as he continues his barely relevant fantasy season. Gesicki had a brief stretch of relevancy, but he's far too inconsistent to trust as an every-week starter. Just two games ago he finished a game with just one catch. He gets a tough matchup this week against the Bengals and shouldn't be viewed as a good option.
Week 15 at New York Giants
As we mentioned last week, Mike Gesicki wasn't suddenly a TE1 just because he finally caught some touchdown passes. He caught just one pass for six yards last week and now has seven games with 30 yards or less. He should be viewed as a touchdown-or-bust fantasy option moving forward, and he's only scored twice in his career. He faces a Giants defense that's allowed six touchdowns to tight ends in 2019.
Week 14 at New York Jets
Mike Gesicki was actually valuable last week, finishing 5-79-1 on seven targets. He's now caught a touchdown in back-to-back games after not finding the endzone all season. He's trending in the right direction, but it's still hard to trust someone who was so bad for most of the season. He has seven games this season below six PPR points, with five of those being below four. He did play well against the Jets the last time he played them, finishing 6-95, so there is some reason for optimism this week. He should be viewed as a borderline TE1 in Week 14.
Week 13 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Mike Gesicki had a decent 3-28-1 performance on seven targets last week. Gesicki has been OK on certain weeks, but without that touchdown, he wouldn't have contributed much. And Gesicki isn't much of a red-zone threat with just one touchdown this season (and for his whole career). If you're looking for a tight end who won't score zero points, Gesicki will do, but don't expect 10+ points from him unless he has a very rare score.
Week 12 at Cleveland Browns
Mike Gesicki finished 4-18 on six targets last week. That's now five of his 10 games this season where he's finished with fewer than 20 receiving yards. He's hit-or-miss, and his "hits" haven't been that great. Gesicki still has no touchdown receptions on the season, so he's not a great option in Week 12 against the Browns.
