Week 7 vs. Atlanta Falcons
Mike Gesicki looked strong last week, finishing 8-115 on nine targets. It's just Gesicki's second career 100-yard game in 53 games played. Aside from his goose egg in Week 1, Gesicki has been pretty productive this year, averaging 6-68.4 from Week 2 through Week 6. His only downfall is he's scored just once all season. He gets a tough matchup this week against the Falcons, though, who have given up just 18 total receptions to tight ends this season, the fifth-fewest in the league. Despite the tough matchup, we still like Gesicki as a top-five option at his position in Week 7.
Week 6 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Mike Gesicki saw the second-most targets among Miami's receiving options last week, seeing seven. He finished 4-43-0, which isn't awful. He's had at least three receptions and 40+ yards in four straight games, so he's been consistent ever since his goose egg in Week 1. He gets a favorable matchup this week vs. the Jaguars who are 30th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to tight ends. Jacksonville has allowed four touchdowns to the position, which was tied for the most heading into the week. Gesicki will be a solid TE1 play in Week 6.
Week 5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mike Gesicki had another strong game last week, finishing 5-57-1 on six targets. Gesicki has averaged 6-61.3 in the three games where Jacoby Brissett has taken over, after finishing with zero yards in Week 1 with Tua Tagovailoa. He should have another good game this week in a favorable matchup against the Bucs. Tampa Bay has allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season, including the second-most receptions. Gesicki will be a top 10 option at tight end in Week 5.
Week 4 vs. Indianapolis Colts
Mike Gesicki came out of nowhere to finish with 12 targets in Week 3, putting up a stat line of 10-86. It's a career-high for receptions in a game for Gesicki, who has been playing since 2018. Gesicki has gotten back on track ever since his goose egg in Week 1, putting him back in low-tier TE1 territory. He gets a somewhat tough matchup against the Colts this week, who have allowed the sixth-fewest receiving yards to tight ends this season.
Week 3 at Las Vegas Raiders
Mike Gesicki seemed to improve with Jacoby Brissett at QB. The tight end had no receptions from Tua Tagovailoa in Week 1, and didn't see a target from Tagovailoa in his brief Week 2 play. But with Brissett, Gesicki had six targets, finishing 3-41. Still not great, but it's better than zero. This week he faces a Raiders defense that's allowed just 56 yards and no touchdowns to tight ends this season. We're not expecting much from Gesicki, placing him outside of our top 15 tight ends for the week.
Week 2 vs. Buffalo Bills
Mike Gesicki finished with a big fat goose egg in Week 1. Even more concerning is the fact Gesicki played on just 21 of 54 (39%) offensive snaps. Dolphins tight end Durham Smythe out-snapped Gesicki by playing on 38 snaps (70%) and rookie Hunter Long played nearly the same amount, seeing 18 snaps. And this was all without tight end Adam Shaheen, who will likely return this week from the COVID list. We don't want to panic too much off of one game, but this is a tough look for fantasy owners expecting a big year from Gesicki. We have Gesicki outside of the top 15 options at tight end for Week 2. Although he does face a Bills defense that he had success against in 2020. Gesicki finished 8-130-1 in his first game vs. Buffalo and 5-47 in his second game.
Week 1 at New England Patriots
Mike Gesicki draws a tough matchup against the Patriots in Week 1 as New England allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends last season. Tight ends averaged just 4.3 receptions per game against New England, but most notable was the fact the Patriots gave up just three touchdowns to the position all season. Gesicki himself finished 3-30 against the Patriots in his game against them last year. We're projecting similar numbers for him in Week 1, putting him around the 15th ranked TE.
Fantasy Upside
Mike Gesicki had a career year in 2020 despite a rotation of quarterbacks, setting highs in receptions (53), yards (703) and touchdowns (6). His strong year led him to finish as the No. 7 scoring tight end in fantasy (half-PPR). Gesicki also had slightly better numbers with Tua Tagovailoa at QB in 2020, so their connection will continue in this upcoming season.
Fantasy Downside
Gesicki’s 2020 season only really got going later on in the year when the Dolphins had a number of injuries at receiver. In the first half of the season, Gesicki finished four games with one reception or less. The Dolphins not only have those receivers healthy for this year, but they also added in Will Fuller and Jaylen Waddle.
2021 Bottom Line
We’re expecting numbers closer to Gesicki’s 2019 season when he finished as the No. 11 scoring tight end rather than his improved 2020 season when he finished 7th. The injuries to wide receivers late in the season helped boost Gesicki’s totals, and the arrival of two-star receivers will bring his numbers back down in 2021. Still, tight end is a shallow position and Gesicki has enough talent and opportunity to finish as a top 10 scorer at tight end this season.
Week 17 at Buffalo Bills
Mike Gesicki returned to the lineup last week, and led the team in targets (7), receiving yards (54). It was a solid game for him considering Miami's struggles as Tua Tagovailoa finished below 100 passing yards before being replaced. Gesicki has actually been productive under Tagovailoa after some inconsistent play under Ryan Fitzpatrick. Although, Gesicki had success with Fitz in Week 2 against Buffalo when he finished 8-130-1, his most productive game of the season. With another matchup against Buffalo this week, there's reason to like Gesicki as a solid TE1 play in Week 17.
Week 16 at Las Vegas Raiders
Mike Gesicki was inactive last week as he deals with a shoulder injury. He's been limited in practice this week and is listed as questionable, so his health is worth monitoring. If he does play, he'll be a strong option considering his success in recent weeks. He's scored in three straight games while maintaining high production in receptions and yards. If active, he'll be a low-end TE1 play in Week 16 against the Raiders (No. 12 aFPA).
