2022 Fantasy Upside
Mike Gesicki saw career highs in targets (112), receptions (73), and receiving yards (780) last season as he became more involved in the offense. Gesicki was fairly consistent with his production, finishing with at least three receptions and 40 yards in 12 of his 17 games. Gesicki will maintain his role as TE1 this year with no real competition on Miami’s depth chart. Gesicki has been solid in Miami, proving himself to be a valuable low-end TE1 in fantasy with finishes as TE11 in 2021 and the TE8 in 2020. Gesicki was brought back this season via the franchise tag, so in a way it’s like a contract year for him. If he plays well, he’s setting himself up for a big contract.
2022 Fantasy Downside
Gesicki’s increased usage last season can largely be attributed to Miami’s injury concerns at the WR position. Miami brought in some additional help this offseason, including adding Tyreek Hill, Cedrick Wilson and even RB Chase Edmonds. Miami also hired a new coach in Mike McDaniel, so Gesicki’s previous usage isn’t guaranteed to carry over. With so much change, it seems unlikely Gesicki will see 100+ targets again like he did a season ago.
2022 Bottom Line
Gesicki will likely see a somewhat similar role in 2022 that he’s had the previous seasons. His production might take a slight hit this year compared to last, but he should remain in the range between TE10 and TE15. If he continues to play the year under the franchise tag, he’ll have a lot to prove this season in order to get a big contract in the offseason. He’s also playing in McDaniel’s system, which was able to utilize the tight end a lot in San Francisco.
Week 17 at Tennessee Titans
Mike Gesicki finished 3-22 on four targets last week, which is one of his poorer performances this year. It's his fourth game below 25 receiving yards, but outside of those four games, Gesicki has finished with at least 40 yards. It's been an odd year for the Dolphins tight end, who can look great one week and then do nothing the next. Most weeks, however, he's usually good for about 4 to 5 receptions for 40 to 50 receiving yards. That's around what we have projected for him this week against the Titans. He should be viewed as a lower-end TE1 option heading into Week 17.
Week 16 at New Orleans Saints
Mike Gesicki saw eight targets last week, finishing 5-43. Gesicki has been pretty consistent this year outside of his two no-catch games. Gesicki has finished within the 40-60 yard range in eight games this season while averaging 4.6 receptions. He could struggle a bit this week against the Saints, though. New Orleans has been tough on tight ends as they're top 10 in the league in the fewest receptions and receiving yards allowed to the position. And they've given up just three touchdowns to tight ends as well, tied for third-fewest in the league. It's not a great matchup, but Gesicki has been productive enough throughout the year to be viewed as a top 10 tight end play this week.
Week 15 vs. New York Jets
Mike Gesicki tied the Dolphins with a team-high 11 targets last week, finishing 7-46-0. Gesicki has been more involved in Miami's offense this season, averaging a nice 6.9 targets per game. He already set a career-high in targets and receptions this season, and is currently averaging a career-high in yards per game. Look for Gesicki to continue his productive season this week in a favorable matchup vs. the Jets. New York is giving up the fifth-most receiving yards to tight ends this year. And with Jaylen Waddle out this week (COVID), we could see Gesicki getting a bump in targets. We like Gesicki as a top 10 option at tight end this week.
Week 13 vs. New York Giants
Mike Gesicki saw just three targets last week, finishing 3-17-0. Gesicki has only scored two times all season, with his last touchdown coming in Week 7. Outside of his scoring issues, Gesicki has been mostly consistent with at least three receptions and 40 or more receiving yards in all but three games. We're expecting a similar 3-4 reception, 40-50 yard game from him again this week in a fairly tough matchup against the Giants. Gesicki will be a high floor, low ceiling play as a lower-end TE1 in Week 13.
Week 12 vs. Carolina Panthers
Mike Gesicki finished 5-50-0 on six targets last week. It's a solid bounce-back game following his goose egg in Week 10. Outside of his two zero catch games, Gesicki has been pretty consistent this year with at least 40 yards in every game and at least 50 yards in all but three games. We'd expect a similar type of game from him this week, although it will be a tough matchup vs. the Panthers. Carolina has allowed the 10th-fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends this year. Still, with the tight end position being so shallow, Gesicki should be a top 10 option at the position in Week 12.
Week 11 at New York Jets
Mike Gesicki led Miami in targets last week with seven but remarkably finished with zero receptions. This almost seems like a record, but the record is actually 10 (held by two players). While it was a frustrating goose egg for fantasy owners, it's at least encouraging that he still had targets. He should bounce back this week against the Jets' defense. Gesicki finished with at least 40 receiving yards in eight straight games before last week, so he should clear that mark in Week 11, making him a strong TE1 play.
Week 10 vs. Baltimore Ravens
Mike Gesicki saw eight targets last week, which was second on the team, and finished 4-54. Gesicki has benefitted this season from DeVante Parker and Will Fuller missing practically the entire year. Gesicki has a career-high in yards per game (58.8) this season and is about to surpass his season-high in receptions. He hasn't been a strong red zone presence with just two touchdowns, but he's done enough to become the TE3 in scoring so far this year. He gets a great matchup against the Ravens this year, who have a good defense overall but have surprisingly given up a lot of fantasy points to tight ends. Baltimore has given up the second-most average fantasy points to TEs so far this year. And with Gesicki's production, he should be viewed as a strong TE1 play in Week 10.
Week 9 vs. Houston Texans
Mike Gesicki finished 3-48-0 on four targets last week. He likely saw a dip in production mostly because of DeVante Parker's return, as well as it being a tough matchup vs. the Bills. His production should ramp up this week as Parker suffered an injury setback in practice, and he gets a much better matchup vs. the Texans. Houston is 32nd in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to tight ends. The Texans have allowed a league-high (tied) six touchdowns, and have given up the 8th-most receiving yards to the position. Gesicki is a top-five option at the tight end position in Week 9.
Week 8 at Buffalo Bills
Mike Gesicki had one of his better games of the season last week, finishing 7-85-1 on eight targets. It's his third game this season with 80+ receiving yards, which is notable considering he had just five games hitting that total in his career before this season. Gesicki has been a reliable option outside of his Week 1 goose egg, finishing with at least 40 yards every game while averaging 71.2. He gets a tough matchup against the Bills this week, who are third in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to tight ends, but he should still be viewed as a mid-tier TE1. If DeVante Parker is out again, the Dolphins are limited on receiving options which is partly why Gesicki has been playing so well this year. He had an OK game against Buffalo earlier this year, finishing 3-41 on six targets, but that was with Jacoby Brissett at QB. We'd expect him to finish around 60 yards this week with Tua Tagovailoa quarterbacking.
