Week 13 vs. Minnesota Vikings
The New England Patriots have a healthy implied team total of 27 points this week in a game hovering around an over/under of 50. Minnesota ranks top five in aFPA to RBs, and Rex Burkhead's return clouds James White's volume. Whereas White was a PPR RB1 for much of this season, he more of a PPR-only RB2 at this point with three options back in this rotation. Even before Burkhead's return, White's touches have already suffered (only 16 combined last two games) with Josh Gordon immersed into the offense, Julian Edelman healthy and Rob Gronkowski back from injury as well.
Week 12 at New York Jets
The Patriots come off the bye week motivated to not lose consecutive games, and their implied team total reflects that. New England is tied for the second-most expected points on the Sunday-Monday slate at 28.5 points. Plus, the Jets are just 27th in aFPA to RBs. Sony Michel is back, but James White should continue to see the majority of snaps in this backfield. Seven consecutive games of five or more receptions show how strong of a PPR staple he continues to be, despite struggling to put up RB1 numbers in his last game against the Titans. We expect a bounce back, even in standard as an RB2 in Week 12.
Week 10 at Green Bay Packers
The Patriots only have the eighth-highest implied team total of the Sunday slate at 26.5 points, a departure from their usual spot near the top of that weekly list. Perhaps some respect from the oddsmakers against a Titans defense that ranks sixth in aFPA to RBs. Sony Michel continues to practice on a limited basis this week, but James White is the primary fantasy back right now. White has more than 25 PPR points per game over his last three games. White is locked in as a RB1 in Week 10.
Week 8 vs. Green Bay Packers
In a showdown between Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers in Week 9, expect a lot of points. New England has a monster implied team total of 31.5 points, highest of the week. For James White, even if Sony Michel returns from injury, there should be no concern. In Weeks 4-6 where Michel saw at least 19 touches, White averaged 23 PPR points per game, high RB1 numbers. The Packers are 14th in aFPA to RBs this season. That's nothing to be worried about. White is locked in as an every week RB1 at this point in the season.
Week 8 at Buffalo Bills
The Patriots head to Buffalo Monday night to face a Bills team they've averaged 33.7 points against in their last three meetings. New England has also scored at least 38 points in each of its last four games and has a Week 8 implied team total of 29 points. For James White, Sony Michel will not play this week, increasing his chances to continue as a low-end QB1, as he's been much of this season. Yea, we'd say things are looking up for fantasy production this week. Start White with confidence.
Week 6 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Patriots have the highest implied team total of Week 6 at 31.5 points. The Chiefs are bottom five in the league in aFPA to RBs. And with New England down to two RBs in its rotation, the touches for James White in the passing game are turning into fantasy gold. KC has allowed 454 receiving yards and three touchdowns to RBs through five games in 2018. The Chiefs allowed 429 receiving yards and two touchdowns to RBs in all 16 games in 2017. White is primed for an RB1 performance in Week 6.
Week 5 vs. Indianapolis Colts (TNF)
The Patriots have the highest implied team total for Week 5 at 31 points, coming off a dominant performance against the Dolphins. Indy ranks just 10th in aFPA against RBs, but the Colts offense may have trouble moving the ball with a banged up O-Line and down its best pass-catcher in T.Y. Hilton. That could lead to even more possessions for the Patriots offense and positive game script for James White. With Rex Burkhead on IR, White's workload grew in Week 4. Consider White an RB2 with big upside in Week 5 and beyond.
Week 4 vs. Miami Dolphins
Remember what happened in the Saints' backfield last season when it went from a three-man RBBC to two with the Adrian Peterson trade? Well something similar has happened this year in New England with Rex Burkhead going on IR. Only Sony Michel and James White remain. Michel should dominate carries, with White dominating passing-down work. This is still a backfield that produced 48 total touchdowns in this offense over the past two years, despite early-season struggles. Plus, the Patriots are home favorites against a Dolphins defense ranked just 24th in aFPA to RBs through three weeks. They also have a large implied team total of 27.5 points. This adds up to White being a high-RB2 in PPR moving forward.
Week 3 at Detroit Lions
The Patriots have the second-highest implied team total of 30 points for Week 3. The Lions are also 28th in PPR points allowed to RBs this season after getting gashed by Matt Breida last week and Isaiah Crowell and Bilal Powell in Week 1. White has played 48 and 56 percent of snaps, respectively, the first two weeks, and most importantly, saw 9 and 8 targets. He's filling in on high success rate targets with Julian Edelman is still suspended. You can continue to ride him comfortably in Week 3.
Week 2 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Rex Burkhead is on the injury report with a concussion this week. Jeremy Hill is out for the year with a torn ACL. Plus, Sony Michel may not be ready for a significant role. White is trending towards the biggest workload of his career this week. He should easily be a reliable RB2, as the depth chart has thinned. His high usage last week was very encouraging, and the Jaguars defense was surprisingly not great against the run last season (19th in aFPA to RBs). They also got gashed by Saquon Barkley in Week 1. Start White with extreme confidence if Burkhead is inactive.
