Week 15 at Cincinnati Bengals
James White has led Patriots running backs in snap share in three of their last four games, including a 78% share in Week 13 and a 61% share in Week 15. In addition to his well-established prowess as a receiver out of the backfield, White has amassed 175 rushing yards over his past five games after totaling 66 rushing yards through his first seven games. He's the RB17 overall in 0.5 PPR scoring formats, and has the second-most red-zone targets among all offensive players, as well as the highest catch percentage among the top 30 in that group.
The Patriots have struggled offensively since their bye, and have seen their last two opponents regularly double-team their top two options on third down, Julian Edelman and James White. The Bengals have seen 65 targets to running backs against them, and have allowed 56 receptions, and 86.2% reception rate allowed that's the second-highest in the league. Those 65 running back targets are among the lowest totals among all 32 teams, presumably due to opposing quarterbacks seeing wide open wide receivers against Cincinnati. New England targets their running backs more than any other team, making White a safe bet as an RB2 in Week 15.
Week 14 vs Kansas City Chiefs
James White went fully nuclear in Week 14, catching eight passes for 98 yards and two touchdowns in addition to his 79 yards rushing on 14 attempts. White outscored every other running back on the slate despite getting just five total touches in the first half. The could portend a James White renaissance in the fantasy playoffs, or it may have just been a result of a facing a Houston team that has a potent offense and a poor run defense.
Either way, the Patriots' Week 13 matchup with Kansas City offers immense potential for White. The Chiefs rank 31st in aFPA to running backs, and they're averaging 29 points scored per game, offering a similar potential game script to last week's. Only one player has more than White's 17 red-zone targets, and that's teammate Julian Edelman with 18. It would be foolish to expect White to outscore every starting running back again, but White should be an auto-start as an RB2 with RB1 potential in the event of a shootout.
Week 13 at Houston Texans
The Patriots' Week 12 game against the Cowboys appeared to lend itself to a big game for James White but instead resulted in one of White's worst fantasy performances of the season. He was targeted just three times and caught a single pass for -6 yards, and saw his lowest snap share of the season at 30%. The Patriots leaned heavily on Sony Michel against Dallas, but that shouldn't define roles moving forward given New England's tendencies as a game-plan offense.
The Houston Texans have allowed the most running back receptions of any team along with the second-most receiving yards, and their four receiving touchdowns allowed to running backs are tied for the third-most. With Phillip Dorsett and Mohamed Sanu looking likely to return, White should see plenty of favorable coverage as a receiver. White should be an essential part of the Patriots offense in its most efficient form moving forward, and for this week, he's a high-end RB3 start with a vaulted ceiling.
Week 12 vs Dallas Cowboys
Like teammate Sony Michel, James White had his worst fantasy output of the season in Week 11, finishing as the RB36 with just 36 total yards. White remains the RB30 overall on the season, and retains a dominant target share at the position, as only Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler have more than White's 62 running back targets.
The Patriots will be without recently acquired wide receiver Mohamed Sanu in Week 12, leaving them with Julian Edelman, rookie Jakobi Meyers, and newly-returned rookie N'Keal Harry as the starting wide receivers. White should see even more work as a receiver than he usually does. While the Cowboys haven't yet allowed a receiving touchdown to an opposing running back, they have allowed the ninth-most receptions and the seventh-most yards to the position. White is the ninth-most frequently targeted player in the red zone (including wide receivers and tight ends), and along with some increased volume likely, he's a fairly-safe RB2 as usual.
Week 11 at Philadephia Eagles
James White's five-game zero-touchdown streak finally ended in Week 9 against the Ravens, when the receiving specialist ironically scored on a rushing attempt from the one-yard line. White led Patriots running backs with a 42% snap share, and for the first time this season, he had more rushing attempts (nine) than passing targets (three). White was the RB11 for the week and stands as the RB32 through Week 10 in 0.5 PPR formats.
The Patriots face an Eagles defense in Week 11 that's allowing just 21.6 aFPA to opposing running backs, fewer than all but eight teams. White does benefit from a pass-oriented game plan as the primary pass-catching running back for New England, and it wouldn't be surprising to see White lead the Patriots backfield in snap percentage as he did in Week 9. While this defensive matchup doesn't project to be easily exploitable, White's target volume and continued heavy red zone usage make him a relatively safe bet for RB2 numbers.
Week 9 at Baltimore Ravens
James White 41% snap share matched Sony Michel's exactly in Week 8, and White's 75 yards on four receptions actually outproduced Michel's totals, earning White an RB26 finish with 9.9 fantasy points. White is actually averaging exactly 9.9 fantasy points per game in 0.5 PPR scoring formats, fourth-most on the Patriots behind Brady. Edelman, and Michel. White garnered another red zone target, leaving him with 12 targets as a receiver in the red zone through eight weeks, tied for second-most, yet he's still scored just one touchdown.
Week 9 presents a Patriots matchup with the Ravens that should play out in favor of White, as Baltimore's defense creates a matchup that's better attacked via the air than on the ground. White's 52 targets are the second-most among all NFL running backs, and his 0.41 PPE points per snap leads all Patriots running backs. White projects as a low-end RB2 for Week 9.
Week 8 vs Cleveland Browns
James White has averaged a 42% snap share through seven games but saw a season-high 54% snap share in Week 7. He turned eight targets (nearly his 7.8 per-game average) into seven receptions and 59 yards and a fantasy RB15 ranking for the week. White remains a strong candidate for positive touchdown regression, as he's caught just one touchdown despite his 11 red-zone targets which lead all players, wide receivers and tight ends included.
The Browns have actually limited receiving production by opposing running backs effectively, as their 29 receptions allowed to the position ties them for eighth-fewest, but White's target volume and efficiency make him virtually matchup-proof. White remains a weekly RB2 start with significant touchdown upside in this Week 8 matchup with Cleveland.
Week 7 at New York Jets
James White had nine receptions on nine targets in Week 6, and those receptions along with his 46 receiving yards made him the RB30 for the week. White is nothing if not consistent in fantasy, finishing between RB22 and RB30 every week this season in 0.5 PPR scoring formats. White has the highest target rate on the Patriots roster at 25.8%, which is what gives him such a solid floor week-to-week. This remains true in the red zone, as White's nine red-zone targets are tied for the most in the NFL, while White has just one touchdown. It's just a matter of time before positive reversion to the mean results in some RB1 weeks for White.
The Patriots travel to New Jersey to face the New York Jets in Week 7, and while they've allowed just 23.0 aFPA to running backs overall, the 13th-lowest figure, they've been somewhat more vulnerable to pass-catching running backs. The Jets have allowed the 15th-most receptions and 14th-most receiving yards to the position, while allowing the eighth-fewest rushing yards. The return of linebacker C.J. Mosley could lower White's ceiling, but starting him as anything more than an RB3 is a bet on him scoring a touchdown.
Week 6 vs New York Giants
After seeing 52% of New England's offensive snaps in Week 4, White took a bit of a back seat to Sony Michel in Week 5, with a 40% snap share to Michel's 49%. White still maintained a heavy target share, and his nine targets tied Julian Edelman for the team lead. James White was Week 5's fantasy RB30, and his lack of touchdown scoring has kept him from reaching the RB2 echelon. White's 6 end zone targets are tied with Matt Brieda for the most among all running backs, so he's due for some positive regression to the mean in that department.
White's Week 6 opponent the New York Giants present a defense that would seem to invite a pass-heavy approach. They've allowed the sixth-most aFPA to quarterbacks while allowing the 16th-most aFPA to running backs. They've been more effective at stopping rushing attempts than defending targets out of the backfield, as their 254 receiving yards allowed to running backs is eighth-most. This should only improve White's prospects for the week, who should yet again be a safe RB3 start with RB2 upside if this turns out to be a week in which his touchdown luck begins to normalize.
Week 5 at Washington Redskins
James White's fantasy value directly benefited from Rex Burkhead's absence in Week 4, as he saw a season-high 52% of offensive snaps. That lead to a season-high ten targets, which he turned into eight receptions for 57 yards and a fantasy RB28 finish in 0.5 PPR scoring formats. White is averaging 10.3 fantasy points per game, making him a safe RB3 each week. White's four red-zone targets tie Julian Edelman for the team lead, which gives White RB2 upside in the right matchups.
The Redskins have only allowed 136 receiving yards and a touchdown on 20 receptions to opposing running backs through four games, but 40% of that yardage total along with the touchdown came just last week at the hands of Wayne Gallman. With Rex Burkhead currently questionable with a foot injury, White could see another snap share North of 50%, and he should be more likely to convert a red zone target into a touchdown against Washington than he was last week against an excellent Bills defense. White's a no-doubt RB3 in Week 5 with an RB2 finish well within his range of outcomes.
**UPDATE 10/5 @ 12:00pm: Rex Burkhead was listed as out today for this game, which only raises James White's value further, as he should dominate targets out of the backfield. Consider White a solid RB2 with RB1 upside against Washington.**
