Week 8 at Buffalo Bills
James White had a somewhat consistent role catching passes out of the New England backfield until Week 7 when he inexplicably had one touch for three yards. The New England backfield is a mess for fantasy purposes, particularly with Cam Newton looking so bad and getting benched in Week 7. White's extremely low usage in Week 7 was likely an outlier from what his role will be most weeks, but he is still a risky start in fantasy. Fortunately for White, he should be the player to benefit from negative game scripts if the Patriots continue to struggle, but the overall productivity (or lack thereof) in his team's passing game limits him to low-end RB3 projections in PPR leagues.
Week 7 vs. San Francisco 49ers
James White is likely the best running back play in the New England backfield this week because of his role as the designated pass-catching back. The 49ers boast one of the toughest run defenses in the league, suggesting the Patriots could struggle to execute their preferred run-heavy style in Week 7. If the offense struggles to move the ball between the tackles or the Patriots fall behind, White would be poised to see even more usage than normal. That possibility is exciting for fantasy, particularly when he has already attracted 17 targets over his last two games. The backfield in New England is always tough to gauge, but White's role makes him worthy of starting as an RB3 in PPR formats.
Week 6 vs. Denver Broncos
James White slotted right back into his usual role in his Week 4 return, drawing eight targets and catching seven balls for 38 yards. White has hovered exactly where we expected heading into the season in the games he has played to this point in 2020. He is a flex play in PPR leagues due to his unquestioned role catching passes out of the Patriots' backfield, but presents limited upside in this niche role on a team that wants to run the ball as much as possible. White could see a bump in volume in Week 6 as the Patriots host the Broncos, who boast a strong run defense but can be exploited through the air. You know what to expect from White, so start him as a flex if you lack better options in Week 6.
Week 5 vs. Denver Broncos
James White was back in his usual role in his Week 4 return, where he played 40 snaps and attracted eight targets from Brian Hoyer and Jarrett Stidham. White's niche role means he is heavily game-script dependent for fantasy purposes, as he will not see much volume in games where New England has a lead. That being said, this week's matchup with Denver may prove beneficial to White as the Broncos have been excellent at stopping the run this season. This could lead New England to throw more, which would benefit White along with Julian Edelman and N'Keal Harry. Even so, it is tough to trust White as anything more than a middling RB3 in PPR leagues.
Week 4 at Kansas City Chiefs
It looks like James White will return to the New England backfield this week after stepping away from the team to deal with a tragic family incident. The only problem with White's return is that is muddles an already cluttered backfield for fantasy purposes. Sony Michel had been throughly disappointing through two games only to eclipse 100 yards rushing last week. Rex Burkhead, a fantasy afterthought heading into the season, scored two rushing touchdowns and caught seven of his ten targets in the passing game. White will almost surely take over much of that passing down work, but with Bill Belichick at the helm there is no guarantee Burkhead will remain strictly a reserve option going forward. White's firm role in the New England offense makes him startable as a flex in deep PPR leagues, but it may be advisable to see how the backfield shakes out if you have other options at the position.
Week 2 at Seattle Seahawks
It was a slow Week 1 for James White, who totaled just 52 scoreless yards on eight touches. The primary reason for White's low volume is the new offensive scheme in New England that places a heavy emphasis on the power run game and utilizing Cam Newton's mobility on designed runs. Based on what we saw last week, White will have a tough time being a startable fantasy asset in games with a positive or neutral game script. However, this week's matchup against the Seahawks makes White interesting in PPR leagues as Seattle should be able to score enough points to demand more passing from Newton. White is on the RB3/4 borderline for Week 2.
Week 1 vs. Miami Dolphins
James White will assume pass catching duties out of the New England backfield in Week 1 against the Miami Dolphins. White's role is secure and it makes him a viable flex play in PPR leagues, but he carries some risk this week with the Patriots being favored by nearly a full touchdown. If the Patriots have the lead in the second half White likely won't see much usage as Cam Newton and the offense grind out the clock. Start White as a RB3 but understand his role makes him dependent on game script.
Fantasy Upside
James White logged another solid season as the preferred pass-catching running back in New England last year. White finished sixth among running backs in receptions with 72 and turned that into 645 yards, good for third at the position. White has steady hands and the trust of Bill Belichick and Offensive Coordinator, Josh McDaniels, on his side as he enters his seventh season. White’s outlook is bolstered by the addition of Cam Newton at quarterback, who should improve the overall offensive output in New England and demonstrated the willingness to target backs out of the backfield with frequency during his time in Carolina with Christian McCaffrey. Despite New England’s committee approach at running back, White should be able to shake off the loss of Tom Brady and have some value in PPR leagues this season.
Fantasy Downside
White cannot be counted on for any rushing output in a given week and there is more uncertainty surrounding his receiving role than ever before. He has never cleared 100 carries in a single season and will lose the vast majority of early-down work to Sony Michel or another member of the Patriots’ backfield. The Patriots also appear likely to adopt a more run-centric offensive philosophy after the departure of Tom Brady. This sort of philosophical shift would shrink White’s role, who thrived when he was being peppered with short targets from Brady, particularly in a hurry-up or negative game script situation. There is no guarantee White will see those situations as often with Newton under center, and he has never been a high-volume player in the Patriots’ offense to begin with. In the post-Brady era, White’s floor is lower than it has ever been before.
2020 Bottom Line
White is only playable in PPR leagues for fantasy purposes. Even in those leagues, he will struggle to produce when the right circumstances do not come to fruition during the game. White is currently being drafted as an RB3 in PPR leagues and should be playable as a flex in the right matchups.
Week 17 vs Miami Dolphins
James White has had a typically strong fantasy season as a receiving specialist at the running back position and enters Week 17 as the fantasy RB21. That might be a step behind his 2018 finish as the RB8, but part of the blame should rightfully be assigned to the Patriots' overall offensive struggles, and he's remained valuable as an RB2 despite the dip in touchdown production. White's fantasy returns have been all over the map over the last four games, as he's finished as the RB1, RB25, RB15, and RB47 in Weeks 13, 14, 15 and 16 respectively, which makes for a cloudy fantasy forecast.
The Patriots implemented their "pony" package frequently and successfully on offense last week, which features White and Rex Burkhead on either side of Tom Brady. While the Patriots are known for tailoring their offense to attack the weaknesses of their weekly opponents, they may continue to utilize that formation, which could result in the two running backs cannibalizing each other's fantasy value somewhat. James White has been the sixth-most targeted running back in 2019, and he should continue to earn enough targets in Week 17 for an RB2 finish.
Week 16 vs Buffalo Bills
James White was the fantasy RB16 last week against the Bengals, despite being out-touched nearly three-to-one by teammate Sony Michel. White's reception and receiving yardage are inherently more valuable in 0.5 PPR formats, and only Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara have averaged more targets per game than James White's 6.7. White is one of Tom Brady's most reliable receivers on an offense that continues to search for production from wide receivers not named Julian Edelman.
The Bills have done well to limit the points scored by their opponents, as only one of the past seven teams to face them has scored more than 20 points, and that was Baltimore. They have allowed some healthy reception and receiving yardage totals recently to the likes of Kareem Hunt, Patrick Laird, and Ezekiel Elliott, none of whom have White's level of skill as a receiver out of the backfield. White's a strong play as a high-end RB2 on his receiving volume alone, but his recent uptick in rushing usage just further raises his floor.
