Week 10 at Denver Broncos
Want to play fantasy football Russian Roulette? Because that's what figuring out which Patriots RB to start each week and whether to start them at all is like. Plus, the Broncos are fifth in our aFPA vs. RB rankings. If there is one to start, James White is your man in PPR leagues, especially with Chris Hogan likely out. Consider White a low-end RB2 in Week 10
Week 8 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
This one could be another shootout, as Chargers-Patriots has the second-highest over/under of Week 8, and Tom Brady has eluded to having to get the ball out of his hands quickly against the Chargers' pass rush. Those could be good things for James White against a Chargers defense ranked 25th in our aFPA vs. RB rankings. White is averaging about 12 PPR points a game, making him an RB2 in that format for Week 8. However, he's a borderline FLEX in standard leagues.
Week 7 vs. Atlanta Falcons
The Super Bowl hero gets a Super Bowl rematch. White had 11 receptions in the greatest comeback in Super Bowl history, and the Patriots have the highest implied total this week, which could mean this turns into a shootout. Plus, the Falcons are just 28th in our aFPA vs. PPR RB rankings, making White an RB2 this week.
Week 6 at New York Jets
James White is on pace for more than 90 receptions this year. He is directly benefiting from Julian Edelman being out for the year. White has four games with 9+ PPR points, and he is a FLEX consideration (or bye week RB2 replacement) against a Jets team ranked 31st aFPA vs. PPR RBs. Be on the look out for Dion Lewis though, as he's starting to cut into White's snaps.
Week 5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Patriots utter lack of a defense through four weeks has meant New England has played from behind more often than most expected. That has helped James White stay on the field. Whereas Mike Gillislee only played 18 snaps last week, White played 43 snaps. He's scored 9+ PPR points in 3-of-4 games, making him an RB2 candidate in that format once again in Week 4; however, he's a FLEX, at best, in standard leagues.
Week 4 vs. Carolina Panthers
James White is a low-end FLEX this week. The Panthers are top-10 in FP allowed to PPR RBs so far this year; however, they have allowed 22 receptions to opposing RBs in three weeks (fourth-most). White only caught 1 pass last week against a tough Texans front-seven, but the Panthers' seventh-ranked defense in our aFPA vs. PPR RBs still makes it hard to start White, even if Rex Burkhead is out again.
Week 3 vs. Houston Texans
The Patriots are double-digit home favorites against the Texans and have the highest Vegas implied team total for the second week in a row at 29 points. Rex Burkhead is also questionable (ribs). All of this adds up to White potentially getting more touches this week, after 13 and 10 touches the first two weeks. Consider him an RB2 in PPR and a solid FLEX option in standard, as the Texans are ranked only 21st in our aFPA vs. PPR RB rankings.
Week 2 at New Orleans Saints
The Patriots have the highest implied total in Vegas for Week 2, despite playing on the road, with an absurd implied total of 31 points. You're going to want to start most Patriots in Week 2. That includes White. He played 43 snaps to Mike Gillislee's 24 last week and even had 10 carries. White is an RB2 in PPR leagues and a FLEX option in standard leagues for Week 2.
Week 1 vs. Chiefs
James White will always be more valuable in PPR formats than in standard leagues, due to his role as the pass-catching Patriots running back; however, with the pecking order going into Week 1 for New England's re-tooled backfield still unclear, it's likely best to keep White on your bench to start the season. To be a top-36 PPR back last season (fantasy points per game), it meant averaging at least 10 PPR points. White reached that mark only 44% of the time in 2016.
Fantasy Upside
White's upside resides in PPR leagues. The Super Bowl LI hero was the RB22 in that format upon Tom Brady's return in Week 5. The Patriots also extended White's contract for three years, with $4.7 million guaranteed. Compare that to Dion Lewis' $600,000 guarantee, and it seems evident White has secured the passing down role. White could also see a slight increase in expected targets with Julian Edelman out for the season.
Fantasy Downside
4for4's Chris Raybon wrote an extensive study on what to expect from the Patriots backfield. On White: "Given a target expectation in the low 60s to the low 70s, and anywhere from 3–6 carries per game, if White performs at his baseline career efficiency we can expect roughly anywhere from 128–164 PPR points and 83–112 standard points. That would have been good for an RB24–RB38 finish in PPR and an RB29–RB45 finish in standard in 2016." Therefore, White's fantasy downside is as an inconsistent option week-to-week with only some flex appeal.
2017 Bottom Line
White may be best suited for best-ball formats, as it will be difficult to predict how many touches he will get week-to-week. However, at his depressed ninth-tenth round ADP, he may be worth the gamble in PPR leagues, just in case the Patriots go more pass heavy in 2017. Just don't expect anything higher than RB2 results in PPR.
