Week 4 at Buffalo Bills
James White missed New England's Week 3 matchup with the Jets to witness the birth of his child, but was the RB22 in Week 1 in 0.5 PPR scoring formats and the RB24 in Week 2. With Rex Burkhead sharing passing-game snaps, White's target volume has been slightly reduced, but he is targeted on 20.0% of his snaps, second only to the now-departed Antonio Brown. White was targeted on 20.5% of his snaps in 2018, and averaged 7.7 targets per game.
While New England's Week 3 matchup with the Buffalo Bills doesn't appear to lend itself to a pass-heavy game plan for the Patriots, that doesn't mean White won't be utilized. White's skill in faster-developing, shorter receiving routes are often used as an extension of the Patriots running game, and if Julian Edelman misses the game with a rib injury, White would inherit some of his route responsibilities. The Bills have allowed 101 receiving yards to running backs, 13th-fewest, but they are one of only three teams to have allowed two receiving touchdowns to the position. White is a good bet to return top-24 running back value this week.
Week 3 vs New York Jets
James White has been on the field for a healthy 39% of the Patriots' offensive snaps, and while his role remains as a pass-catching weapon out of the backfield, he's now sharing the gig with Rex Burkhead. Michel's been targeted 11 times to Burkhead's 10, and he's been targeted on 20% of his snaps to Burkhead's 20.4%. He's been the 0.5 PPR RB22 and RB24 in Weeks 1 and 2, which is still very useful, but not what most fantasy owners thought they were getting at his ADP.
There will inevitably be some James White explosion games this season when New England relies on the short passing game to mitigate an opposing pass rush, and Week 3 versus the Jets has potential. The Jets have been far more susceptible to pass-catching running backs than traditional rushers so far in 2019, and New England should be operating with the lead for most of this contest, with Vegas giving the game a spread of -20 to New England. While White is ceding touch share to Burkhead, he's out-targeted him in the red zone three to one, and with injuries to both Patriots starting tackles, they may stay away from the longer-developing deep shots. White is a good start as a high-end RB3 with RB2 potential.
Week 2 at Miami Dolphins
James White faced a Steelers defense in Week 1 that effectively stifled opposing running backs in the passing game in 2018, allowing the third-fewest receiving yards to the position. White still managed an RB22 finish due to volume, as New England continued their tendency to target running backs more than the vast majority of the NFL.
Week 2 brings a matchup with a Miami defense that didn't do much defending in Week 1, allowing the most rushing yardage and the fourth-most passing yardage. It's a projected game script that doesn't favor White, as he tends to be utilized less in projected balanced or run-heavy game plans. That being said, New England needs to create a lead to maintain, and White should see enough volume in the first half alone to justify a start as an RB3 in PPR leagues
Week 1 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
James White is extremely valuable as a pass-catching running back, and he finished 2018 as the fantasy RB6 in PPR formats. In fact, White's touch totals also translated to standard league value, where he finished as the RB11. His touch share for 2019 is a bit cloudier after the Patriots drafted Damien Harris and reportedly plan to involve Sony Michel more in the passing game, but his role is unlikely to shrink drastically.
White matches up with the Steelers in Week 1, who were adept at defending pass-catching running backs even before drafting linebacker Devin Bush in the first round of the 2019 draft. 4for4's John Paulsen projects White as the fantasy RB31 in 0.5 PPR formats, making him a mid-range RB3. Better matchups are ahead.
Fantasy Upside
Over the past two seasons, James White has averaged 12.88 PPR points per game with Rob Gronkowski in the lineup. White has averaged 17.74 PPR points in games without Gronk, which (almost certainly) will be every game in 2019. White's 1.53 fantasy points per touch in 2018 was the highest mark among all running backs who averaged at least ten touches per game, and he finished as the RB8 in .5 PPR leagues, which might be his floor for 2019.
Fantasy Downside
New England drafted Damien Harris in the third round of the 2019 NFL draft, a talented running back with great receiving skills. If the Patriots look to involve Sony Michel more as a receiver to disguise their offensive tendencies, work in Harris to ease Michel's workload, and continue using Burkhead as a dual-threat in the backfield, White's slice of the receiving pie could get significantly smaller.
2019 Bottom Line
White has secured himself a top role as a receiver out of the backfield. He's established a clear rapport with Brady, and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels has a clear affinity for scheming White touches. With a lot of unknowns in the New England passing offense, White is right there with Julian Edelman as Brady's most dependable receivers. White is our RB23 in .5 PPR leagues, but he's being drafted as the RB27 in the late-fifth or early-sixth rounds by ADP. While White's target competition is real, he's got RB1 upside well within his range of outcomes in 2019, making him a great target at his ADP in redraft. He's even more valuable in bestball leagues, as you can cash in on every one of his spike games without having to navigate any difficult start/sit decisions.
Week 19 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers go west to east for the second consecutive week to take on the Patriots in New England with a trip to the AFC Championship game on the line. New England is a shrinking four-point favorite with a middle-of-the-pack implied team total of 25.5 points. The Chargers rank top five in aFPA to QBs, which makes Tom Brady a very risky option in the divisional round. That could mean good news for the ground game, as the Chargers rank 24th in aFPA to RBs. Michel should continue to see volume on the ground but remain a touchdown-or-bust option with James White getting most of the passing game work. That makes White the higher floor option in PPR formats.
Week 17 vs. New York Jets
The Patriots should send their starters out for a full 60 minutes this week in an effort to lock up a first-round bye in the playoffs. New England also has an outside chance at home field advantage with a win and Chiefs and Chargers losses. Because of this, New England is among the highest implied team totals this week at 29.25 points after being installed as almost two-touchdown favorites. New York ranks just around league average in aFPA to RBs. Sony Michel has been the undisputed early-down back in this offense, racking up at least 18 touches in four of his last five games. However, James White still dominates the passing down work, as Michel contributes nothing in that area. That keeps White among RB2 candidates for Week 17.
Week 16 vs. Buffalo Bills
The Patriots certainly have not looked like the Patriots over the past two weeks, but against the Bills this week, New England still has the third-highest implied team total on the Week 16 slate of 28.75 points. Buffalo ranks third in aFPA to QBs but only 25th in aFPA to RBs. So that's good news for Patriots RBs, but this is still a three-man RBBC with Rex Burkhead back in the mix. Coaches have indicated the need to get White more involved in the offense, and that may be even more true now with Josh Gordon back out of football. For these reasons, consider White a volatile RB2 in PPR leagues.
Week 15 at Pittsburgh Steelers
As usual, there are a lot of reasons to like Patriots players in fantasy this week. New England has an implied team total of 27.5, among the highest in the league. Only Baltimore is averaging more offensive plays per game this season than New England, and only Baltimore and Dallas have more offensive plays over the past three weeks. Plus, this game has an over/under of 52, among the highest of Week 15. Pittsburgh ranks 13th in aFPA to RBs though, and with James White coming off just six touches to tie his season-low, it's clear Rex Burkhead being active is affecting White's ceiling. He can't be viewed as more than a FLEX at this point in PPR leagues.
Week 14 at Miami Dolphins
The New England Patriots head to Miami with a top five implied team total, facing a defense that ranks just 29th in total defense this season. New England struggled at Hard Rock Stadium surprisingly, but this Dolphins defensive unit doesn't have the pieces it had last year. Miami ranks just 29th in aFPA to RBs. Sony Michel continues to dominate early-down and goalline snaps in this backfield and already had a successful day against the Dolphins earlier this year. Even with Rex Burkhead mixing in, there's still room for James White, evidenced by his game against this team earlier this season. White can be considered an RB2 in standard with RB1 upside in PPR.
