Week 4 vs. Los Angeles Rams
Dak Prescott went from throwing 50 passes one week to 18 the next. Dallas probably likes the second number better because that means the running game is churning and Prescott can be more effective. Last week, he threw for 183 yards, but also threw 2 touchdowns. He also ran for a score, making it a decent week for the second year signal-caller.
Prescott will be back in Big D this week and faces a Rams defense ranked 17th in aFPA to quarterbacks. With the decent matchup and the offense righting the ship in Week 3, Prescott is ready to put up numbers similar to his breakout 2016 campaign. Start Prescott as a solid QB1.
Week 3 at Arizona Cardinals
Not sure if the Cowboys want Dak Prescott throwing 50 times per game. That goes away from the Cowboys' strength and it also usually means they were down, big as was the case last week against Denver. Even with the extra throws, Prescott's numbers weren't great. He threw for 238 yards and 2 touchdowns but also 2 interceptions. It just wasn't a great day for the Dallas offense.
Another road game will be a challenge for the Cowboys on Monday night. The Cardinals rank 12th in aFPA to quarterbacks. The absence of a running game hurt Dallas last week, so that's going to be a priority for the offensive game plan. And not to get behind.
The Cowboys face a stiff challenge and we expect Prescott to be more effective, but not so heavy with fantasy numbers. He only rates as a low-end QB1 for Week 3.
Week 2 at Denver Broncos
Fantasy owners have to love the fact that Dak Prescott threw 39 passes in the opener. His other numbers were average with 268 passing yards and one touchdown and throw in 24 rushing yards for good measure. This is what many preseason predictions saw happening and it could be the norm for the second year QB.
However, Prescott did play against a very good New York Giants defense so take that into account. And it won't get any easier Week 2 when the 'Boys have to travel to Denver to face one of the best defenses in the NFL.
Prescott will be a fantasy starter for you in certain matchups, but not this week. He is a low-end QB2 against the Broncos for Week 2.
Week 1 vs. New York Giants
Dak Prescott is ready for his second season. Can he replicate or succeed his rookie season results? Prescott has offensive weapons around him, and with Ezekiel Elliott playing Week 1, it increases Prescott's value.
However, the Cowboys do have a tough matchup in the opener against divisional rival New York. In their two meetings last season, Prescott only completed 51% of his passes, throwing 1 touchdown to 2 interceptions. The Giants swept the 'Boys in the season series because of their defense, a defense that ranked fifth in aFPA to quarterbacks in 2016.
Prescott could still be in play for Week 1 as a starter, but it would be as a low-end quarterback. Most think the Giants defense is going to be even better this year, and with last year's results, it would not be surprising if Prescott struggles.
Fantasy Upside
It was a great rookie season for Dak Prescott who was thrown into a starting role when Tony Romo was hurt during a preseason game. Prescott handled it like a seasoned-veteran en route to a fantasy QB6 performance. He completed 68 percent of his passes and threw for 3,667 yards, 23 touchdowns, and only 4 interceptions. On paper, things are lining up for a repeat performance. His offensive line, which is one of the best in the league, returns intact. And he plays alongside a premier running back and legit No. 1 receiver in Ezekiel Elliott and Dez Bryant, respectively. With Romo no longer a Cowboy, Prescott won't have to look over his shoulder every time he throws an incomplete pass.
Fantasy Downside
Sophomore slump? Will his rookie season be an aberration? Those are always the questions to ask when any player has a successful rookie season. Prescott did well with the pressure of playing in Dallas, but that could turn on him if he puts up a couple of bad performances in Jerry World, where everything is always magnified.
2017 Bottom Line
Yes, Prescott overachieved during is rookie campaign, but even if he takes a step back, he will be a quality quarterback. But there is no doubt fantasy owners are overvaluing him. He is the eighth quarterback coming off the board at his ADP of 76 overall. However, we have him ranked as the QB12. Part of the reason for over-drafting him is the Cowboys aura that surrounds him. If you draft Prescott, you will get a borderline QB1 who could repeat his 2016 performance, but there are several other quarterbacks with better values who could be had later.
Week 19 vs Green Bay
Dak Prescott had a great rookie season, but can he repeat that performance in the post season? He finished the season with over 3,600 yards passing and an impressive 23 touchdowns compared to 4 interceptions.
In an earlier meeting this season, Prescott completed 18 of 27 passes for three TDs and 1 INT. Packers are 29th in aFPA to quarterbacks. This is a good matchup for the rookie at home. Start him as one of the top quarterbacks for Divisional Playoff weekend.
Week 16 vs Detroit
Dak Prescott answered his critics with a very effective outing against Tampa. He completed 32 of 36 passes for 279 yards and scored a rushing touchdown. It wasn't anything spectacular, but it did show Prescott is probably going to be the Cowboys QB the rest of the season and playoffs.
Prescott will face the Lions, who are 16th in aFPA to quarterbacks, so the matchup is neutral. The Monday night game is very important for Detroit, who is trying to win the division. Prescott has been a cool customer in these big games, but his numbers could end up being conservative. Keep him on the bench for Week 16 as a high-end QB2.
Week 15 vs Tampa Bay
Dak Prescott didn't look good last week against the Giants, and the talk shows in Dallas have already started throwing Tony Romo's name out there. It's unlikely to happen any time soon, but you do have to be concerned that Prescott is running into the proverbial rookie wall. He threw two interceptions in a game for the first time in his career and has now thrown under 200 yards in the last three games.
The matchup is not great against the Buccaneers, who are 8th in aFPA to quarterbacks. Although his overall numbers are still very good, you should be cautious with Prescott's recent play. Start him as a low-end QB1 at home this week, as he should put up good enough numbers to help your team.
Week 14 at New York Giants
Dak Prescott threw a season-low 18 passes last week and that hurt his overall numbers (139 passing yards with one touchdown). He did run for 37 yards, but also had fourth lost fumble of the season. Minnesota's defense had a lot to do with it.
In the season opener against New York, Prescott was 25 for 45 for 227 yards without a TD or INT. But throw that game out because it was Prescott's NFL debut and he has matured as the season has gone on. The Giants are sixth in aFPA to quarterbacks, so it will be a tough game on the road for Prescott. For that reason, keep him on the bench. He does rate a high-end QB2 so if you do need someone, you can take a flyer on him. But don't expect too much.
Week 13 at Minnesota
Dak Prescott came back down to Earth a little on Thanksgiving. He threw for 195 yards, which was his lowest passing yardage total of the year and it was the first game since Week 5 he did not throw multiple touchdowns. He did score his fourth rushing touchdown of the season, which was a bonus.
Prescott has a tough matchup this week at Minnesota. The Vikings are second in aFPA to quarterbacks and have been one of the best defenses all season long.
It might be good to sit Prescott out this week as a high-end QB2. The Cowboys will probably let him play game manager on the road in order to win the football game, so Prescott's impact will be limited.
