Scott Smith’s Top Plays for UFC 304: Edwards vs Muhammad 2

The UFC flies across the pond to Manchester this week for a card that is heavily anchored by British favorites. Belal Muhammad gets a rematch and long-awaited title shot against welterweight champ Leon Edwards. Heavyweights mirror the main event in another fight that was stopped due to a freak injury.Tom Aspinall has been the class of the division, and he puts his interim belt on the line against Curtis Blaydes

Best Bets for UFC 304: Edwards vs Muhammad 2

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Preston Parsons to win (-148, DraftKings)

Fight Breakdown: Preston Parsons vs Oban Elliott

Elliott showed himself to be well-rounded in his debut against Val Woodburn. While Woodburn has some power, he doesn’t offer much else and doesn’t have a UFC-level skill set. Elliott will have a more difficult fight on his hands this week against Parsons. Elliott will likely have to depend on his scrambling and ability to get back to his feet against the takedowns of Parsons to extend the fight into the later rounds where he should have a cardio advantage.

Parsons will be the much more dangerous fighter in this match-up. While Parsons’ striking isn’t necessarily fluid, it is powerful, and he uses it well to set up his wrestling entries. Parsons has 14 takedowns over the course of his four UFC fights. He is at his best when he uses his wrestling to control the fight on the mat, where he can set up his submissions. Parsons has 9 of his 11 finishes by way of submission, and that will be his best route to victory this week. Elliott isn’t dangerous in anything that he does but will be prepared to fight the full 15 minutes. I expect Parsons to threaten early and have a solid shot at getting the sub. If the fight gruels on deep into the third is where the danger would lie as Elliott will have the better cardio.

Risk: 1.48 units on DraftKings to win 1 unit.

Belal Muhammad +5.5 (-120, DraftKings)

Fight Breakdown: Leon Edwards vs Belal Muhammad

This will be the second meeting between these two, with the first fight marred by an accidental eye poke. In that fight, Edwards was winning and looking good. Muhammad, however, took the fight on short notice. A lot has happened since that fight, with Leon becoming champion and Muhammad beating everyone in his way to finally getting this shot.

Edwards has beaten Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington, who both employ wrestling-heavy gameplans similar to Muhammad. The line on this fight likely reflects those performances. The difference in this fight is that I think Muhammad brings a different pace and pressure. There are many different ways that I could see this fight playing out. I think Muhammad is the stronger fighter the later the fight goes, and Leon has shown a propensity for fighting cautiously, and I think that could lead to dropping some rounds. I don’t mind the money line for Muhammad but I think the line here returns value on a multitude of possible outcomes. I could very easily see this fight going 48-47 for either guy.

Risk: 1.2 units on DraftKings to win 1 unit.

DFS Cash Game Plays For UFC 304

Our strategy for MMA DFS cash games revolves around creating lineups that are projected to get at least four wins on fight night. Targeting fighters in 5-round fights give us more scoring upside and both fighters are usually featured in our lineups. Scoring favors grappling heavy fighters with takedowns and control time being heavily targeted in our lineup construction. Finish rate and stylistic matchups are other considerations when searching for a winning combination on fight night.

Premium Plays ($9000 and Above)

Tom Aspinall $9400 - Aspinall has the highest scoring ceiling on this card. He is well rounded and has some of the fastest hands in the heavyweight division. His wrestling and jiu jitsu keep him dangerous on the ground as well. He is the best heavyweight in MMA right now and his performances reflect that. The question for Aspinall at this price point is will the fight go long enough for him to return value at this price point.

Sam Patterson $9300 - There is some danger in Patterson at this price point. We have seen two completely different performances in his UFC outings. Our model likes Patterson a lot this week and he should be live for an early submission. The biggest issue is his tall man defense, in which he moves in straight lines and keeps his chin in the air. The scoring upside is there this week, albeit with more danger than others in this range.

Molly McCann $9200 - McCann could be a bit of a sleeper this week. She is fighting at home in a plus matchup that should see her win. In her UFC wins, McCann averages 104.45 DFS points, while only finishing two of those fights. She has scoring potential whether the fight goes long or ends early. She is getting a fighter in Brazil that is 1-2 in the UFC with her only win coming against a debut fighter also on this card.

Midrange Plays ($8000 - $8900)

Leon Edwards $8800 - Edwards is the favorite to defend his title this week. The main event is the fight to target for stacks this week. The fight is projected to go the distance, and both fighters have the potential to score well over the course of 5-rounds. The issue is that Edwards has failed to hit 100 points over his last four 5-round fights. If you want to play for a bit more upside in cash games or tournaments, you could even consider leaving Edwards out of lineups.

Caolan Loughran $8700 - Loughran will be the bigger fighter and will look to wrestle and rack up control time. I like the matchup against Jake Hadley coming in on short notice. Loughran has five takedowns in his two fights and that theme should continue here.

Preston Parsons $8600 - Parsons and Loughran are in similar positions this week. They both offer wrestling upside at similar prices. Parsons may have the tougher matchup this week. He is a little bit cheaper so he should be in consideration if you are tight on salary and can’t fit Loughran into your lineup.

Muhammad Mokaev $8400 - Mokaev’s rinse and repeat wrestling approach always sees him score well. There is however some concern about how well that style will play out at the top of the division. His last fight was a bit of a lackluster performance that he blamed on a staph infection. Regardless of all of that, Mokaev has never been this cheap and has averaged over 106 DFS points. It’s hard to get that upside at this price.

Value Plays ($7900 and Below)

Gregory Rodrigues $7900 - Jasmine has improved a lot over the course of her UFC career. She is a tall and well rounded fighter that isn’t scared to get hit. She has shown the ability to adjust game plans and impose her will on fighters when she is the bigger fighter as she will be against a UFC fighter making her debut on short notice. Getting her at this price is a value proposition for a fight that our model projects her to win 57% of the time.

Belal Muhammad $7400 - Muhammad is my favorite value play this week. He gets a 5-round main event and has consistently scored over 100 points on the back of his pressure wrestling approach. His wrestling is where he has the biggest advantage in this fight and it should be heavily implemented over the course of a fight that projects to go the distance.

Giga Chikadze $7300 - I think Arnold Allen will make this fight look easy. Chikadze is a salary relief pick here for a few reasons, however. First and foremost, he has never put up an absolute dud. In his lone loss to Calvin Kattar, Chikadze managed to still put up over 56 DFS points. Secondly, he has never been finished in the UFC. That gives him a solid shot at getting a reasonable return at a price point that allows you to fit premium plays into your lineups.

Cash Game Lineup:

Tom Aspinall $9400

Leon Edwards $8800

Caolan Loughran $8700

Mohammad Mokaev $8400

Belal Muhammad $7400

Giga Chikadze $7300

UFC 304 Picks and Projections

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