Scott Smith’s Top Plays for UFC Denver: Namajunas vs Cortez

After a one-week hiatus, the UFC is back and at altitude. The Mile High city will affect many fighters on this card so you can expect finishes this week. The main event will feature Rose Namajunas against Tracy Cortez. Cortez is taking this fight on short notice, and elevation takes time to prepare for.

Best Bets for UFC Denver: Namajunas vs Cortez

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Luana Santos + Gabriel Bonfim to win (-159, DraftKings)

Fight Breakdown: Luana Santos vs Mariya Agapova

Agapova is 2-3 in the UFC and likely on the verge of being cut. Agapova’s wins have come against fighters that are no longer on the UFC roster and it’s hard to find a solid win on her record. The fighters that she has beaten have been unable to compete at the UFC level, and Agapova herself is probably the same type of fighter. Agapova has some power in her come-forward striking style, but she is often undisciplined and takes some time to settle in and become technical. The real issue for Agapova is that her takedown defense is horrible, and in this fight, it will be put on full display.

Santos is a bright young prospect that excels with her judo and takedowns. Her striking is still a work in progress, but the gap between these fighters on the feet is much smaller than the gap in clinch and grappling work. Santos should be able to get this fight to the ground, where she can use her excellent top control to set up a submission. This is an excellent matchup for Santos, and I expect her to make it look that way.

Fight Breakdown: Gabriel Bonfim vs Ange Loosa

Both of these fighters are coming off embarrassing performances. Loosa flat out quit in a fight that he was losing thus getting a no contest. Bonfim on the other hand, gassed out badly in a fight that he was a -650 favorite in. Bonfim is the better fighter here and our projections give him the highest chance of winning via finish here.The projection itself is somewhat odd as Loosa has never been finished.

The danger in this fight comes from the altitude. Bonfim should be able to threaten for finishes early, and I think he can get a submission. If he struggles against the durability of Loosa and that altitude comes into play, things could get hairy. I believe that Bonfim has had time to prepare for this fight and will put up a better performance and possibly pull off the sub.

Risk: 1.59 units on DraftKings to win 1 unit.

Charles Johnson +3.5 (-155, DraftKings)

Fight Breakdown: Joshua Van vs Charles Johnson

I am a big fan of Joshua Van. I think he wins this fight, but the line is too wide. Johnson has been on a roll as of late and seems to have found his footing after a rough start in the UFC. Johnson typically struggles when opponents spam wrestle him. I don’t see that happening with Van this week. I expect this to largely be a striking affair, and in that case, Johnson only needs to do two things to cover this spread. First, he needs to not get finished. That should be a safe proposition as he has never been finished in his career. Secondly, he just needs to win a round. Many analysts think Johnson wins this fight as the underdog but the state of UFC judging and how many split decisions there have been recently make me comfortable in targeting this line.

Risk: 1.55 units on DraftKings to win 1 unit.

DFS Cash Game Plays For UFC Denver

Our strategy for MMA DFS cash games revolves around creating lineups that are projected to get at least four wins on fight night. Targeting fighters in 5-round fights give us more scoring upside and both fighters are usually featured in our lineups. Scoring favors grappling heavy fighters with takedowns and control time being heavily targeted in our lineup construction. Finish rate and stylistic matchups are other considerations when searching for a winning combination on fight night.

Premium Plays ($9000 and Above)

Evan Elder $9400 - Elder is at the top of the ticket this week. The fight is on short notice and at altitude, which should favor Elder, who seemingly has a technical advantage everywhere. Flowers hits hard, but that’s about it. Elder will be able to outwork him everywhere.

Gabriel Bonfim $9300 - Bonfim projects as the best overall play in multiple metrics this week. His finishing upside will be unmatched this week, and he should be able to top 100 points with a first or second-round finish.

Luana Santos $9200 - Santos should be able to dominate this fight with her takedowns and top position. She doesn’t have the best striking but her judo is top notch and she gets a fighter in Agapova with horrible takedown defense. I don’t see a scenario in which Santos scores less than 100 points this week.

Rose Namajunas $9000 - Thug Rose gets a 5-round main event, and for that purpose, she projects as the top scorer for the week. The danger in stacking the main event this week is that neither fighter looks to have much finishing upside in this fight. So, for Rose, she will have to be volume-dependent in this fight, and with her inconsistent performances, there is some danger. The advantage that she has in this fight is it being at altitude which she is used to training in.

Midrange Plays ($8000 - $8900)

Christian Rodriguez $8900 - Rodriguez is one of the best young prospects in the division. His grit and toughness get him through most sticky situations. While Erosa is dangerous, it takes time for him to get going and that will be dangerous early. I think Rodriguez catches Erosa at some point in this fight.

Montel Jackson $8600 - Jackson has the power to put people away and that is exactly what he does in most instances. Jackson can have trouble getting taken down, and when he loses, that is generally the reason why. There is a bit of risk in playing Jackson against Blackshear this week because of that but that is also the reason why he is a midrange play this week.

Value Plays ($7900 and Below)

Jasmine Jasudavicius $7800 - Jasmine has improved a lot over the course of her UFC career. She is a tall and well-rounded fighter that isn’t scared to get hit. She has shown the ability to adjust game plans and impose her will on fighters when she is the bigger fighter, as she will be against a UFC fighter making her debut on short notice. Getting her at this price is a value proposition for a fight that our model projects her to win 57% of the time.

Da’Mon Blackshear $7600 - Blackshear has landed at least one takedown in all of his UFC fights. Blackshear has looked good in his UFC wins, scoring north of 110 DFS points in both cases. Montel Jackson has heavy hands, but in his losses, he has struggled with his defensive wrestling, being taken down 15 times in those affairs. Blackshear has the blueprint for success here and will need to use it to avoid the power. A win will come by way of wrestling and likely score well.

Tracy Cortez $7200 - Cortez’s lone loss came in her professional debut via guillotine. Aside from that, she has largely been a decision fighter, with only two of her eleven wins coming by way of finish. What Cortez brings to the table is decent wrestling with improved striking and a history of going the distance. Up until her last fight, Cortez has been landing multiple takedowns in her fights. If she can do that and go the distance in this spot, she will return positive results at this price point regardless of the outcome.

Cash Game Lineup:

Gabriel Bonfim $9300

Luana Santos $9200

Christian Rodriguez $8900

Jasmine Jasudavicius $7800

Da’Mon Blackshear $7600

Tracy Cortez $7200

UFC Denver Picks and Projections

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