Scott Smith’s Best bets for UFC Vegas 77: Holm vs Bueno Silva
The theme continues for these UFC cards that take place in the Apex. Holly Holm versus Mayra Bueno Silva is hardly the main event to get fans excited. The rest of the card is filled with match-ups that leave a lot to be desired. Jack Della Maddalena will get the co-main event after having multiple fights fall through recently. He will be heavily favored against talented grappler Bassil Hafez. While this is a tougher fight than most realize, it won’t keep Della Maddalena from being part of this week’s parlay. Let’s take a look at the other fights we’re targeting.
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UFC Vegas 77 Best Bets
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Parlay of the Week - Jack Della Maddalena, Evan Elder, and Azat Maksim to win (-103, DraftKings)
Fight Breakdown: Jack Della Maddalena vs. Bassil Hafez
Jack Della Maddalena has had some bad luck with fighters dropping out against him. This is his third opponent in the span of 2 weeks. Elevated to the co-main event, this is seemingly a showcase spot for Della Maddalena. Della Maddalena has some of the best boxing in the division. He stays in the pocket and throws crisp, powerful combinations. His jiu-jitsu is slightly above average and available when he needs it. He has a 71% takedown defense but has been taken down in his fights.
Bassil Hafez is taking advantage of the opportunity to make his UFC debut. Hafez is a strong grappler that uses explosive takedowns to get the fight to the ground where he can control position and do damage with ground and pound. Hafez fights with good pace and power on the feet but will be at a disadvantage trying to strike with Della Maddalena. Jack Della Maddalena is rightfully the big favorite in this fight and will be live to finish the fight. I feel comfortable with him as the main piece of this parlay, but there is some slight concern with multiple weight cuts over the last two weeks. Hafez has a high pace, although he tends to fade as the fight goes on. Jack is the pick here, but I may also throw a small play on the long shot Hafez closer to fight time as a hedge since the odds are a bit wide.
Fight Breakdown: Evan Elder vs. Genaro Valdez
Genaro Valdez is 0-2 in the UFC. He is a grappler with a well-rounded skill set that is able to fight everywhere. He is a willing striker but primarily uses his striking to set up his takedowns. Valdez is tough, as evident by the abuse he took at the hands of Matt Frevola. Valdez will look to get this fight to the ground, but his back is against the wall, with another loss likely leading to his release.
Evan Elder is solid nearly everywhere. He has good striking that mixes in heavy leg kicks; He uses wrestling to get fights to the mat, where he is patient and controlled in doing damage and improving his position. His submission defense is tested, which makes him hard to finish. The biggest issue with Elder is he has a tendency to take a little bit too much damage on the feet. Both of these fighters have a negative striking differential, but the bet is on Elder, who is slightly better everywhere. Valdez’s 7.63 strikes absorbed per minute will likely be his downfall here.
Fight Breakdown: Tyson Nam vs Azat Maksum
Tyson Nam is a 39-year-old striker who is 3-4 in the UFC. Nam has solid power in his hands and is always dangerous. Nam has a number of trends working against him in this fight. The age trend heavily favors Maksum here, but you also have to be concerned with the damage Nam took 3 months ago. With the damage piling up over his career, Nam has started to slow down. Nam will be looking to land that big right-hand. Outside of that, I don’t see another scenario for him to win.
Azat Maksum is one of the more talented prospects to enter the UFC. He has top-notch skills no matter where the fight takes place. His striking is technical and offers diversity along with power. Maksum also features a diverse grappling skill set with both his wrestling and submission game. Maksum has beaten multiple different-styled fighters and has done so with flying colors. He is ready for this step up and has multiple ways to win. As long as he avoids a big right hand, he should have no issues winning this debut.
Risk: 1.03 units on DraftKings to win 1 unit (Playable down to -125)
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