NCAAB Conference Tournament Betting Preview: Big East

Mar 07, 2022

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There are very few things better than Big East basketball at Madison Square Garden.

The Big East Tournament kicks off in New York with a trio of opening-round games and then finishes four days of incredible action with the championship game on Saturday night.

The Providence Friars earned the No. 1 overall seed by finishing as the conference champions for the first time in their school's history. Providence finished at 14-3, earning the top seed with a higher winning percentage than Villanova at 16-4. It was a fantastic year for head coach Ed Cooley's Friars, who were projected seventh in the preseason poll.

The Wildcats have been the Big East's most dominant team over the past decade, winning seven conference titles during that span. The Wildcats have also won four Big East Tournament Titles over the past six years, and have again earned the top spot as the tournament favorite at +150.

Connecticut met expectations with a strong third-place finish, but both No. 4-seeded Creighton and No. 5-seeded Marquette far exceeded preseason expectations. The Bluejays were projected eighth in the preseason and the Golden Eagles were expected to finish among the bottom tier of teams in the 11-member Big East.

The 8th-11th seeds start on Wednesday before quarterfinal action begins in full on Thursday afternoon. The games are played on four consecutive days, with the eventual champion earning the Big East crown on Saturday.

2022 NCAA Tournament Betting Previews

Big East Conference Tournament Bracket

Big East Conference Tournament History

Just like the regular season, Villanova has also dominated the Big East Tournament in recent history. The Wildcats have won four of the past six tournaments, including a streak of three in a row from 2017-2019. Last season was the first time since 2016 that the Wildcats failed to even make the finals.

The Big East Tournament has enjoyed the electric backdrop of Madison Square Garden since 1983. Georgetown's surprise run to the championship last season gave the Hoyas their eighth overall championship, breaking a tie with Connecticut. Villanova's recent success has placed them tied for the third-most titles with five, shared by former Big East-member Syracuse.

Big East Conference Tournament Odds & Betting Breakdown

*Lines accurate at time of publication. (Odds via FanDuel)

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The Defending Champion

Georgetown Hoyas (No. 11 Seed)

ODDS: +30000

It would be a massive shock if Georgetown could again replicate its success from last year and repeat as Big East Tournament champions. The Hoyas entered last year's tournament as the No. 8 seed, winning four games in four days en route to a dominant 73-48 championship win over Creighton. Head coach Patrick Ewing's team has experienced challenges all season, finishing winless (0-19) in the conference and entering the tournament on a brutal 20-game losing streak.

There is always magic when Ewing enters Madison Square Garden, but even winning just one game would be considered a massive success for Georgetown.

The Favorites

Villanova Wildcats (No. 1 Seed)

ODDS: +150

Death, taxes, and Villanova as the favorite to win the Big East Tournament. The Wildcats have been the king of the conference, dominating the regular season over the last decade. Villanova has won five of the last seven tournament titles.

Head coach Jay Wright has built a template for how to win a National Championship at Villanova. The Wildcats won their three previous titles with veteran players, strong defense, a deliberate pace, superior free-throw shooting and incredible interior efficiency. This year's version of the Wildcats had all of those characteristics for most of this season, except two-point efficiency.

Now, the Wildcats rank second in Big East play in two-point success, scoring at a 52.2% rate in conference play. Villanova ranks in the top 30 in adjusted defensive efficiency and leads the nation at 82.5% from the free-throw line.

The Wildcats starting backcourt of Collin Gillespie (16.3 PPG) and Justin Moore (15.3 PPG) are versatile scorers, both shooting over 36% from deep. Villanova does not have a deep bench, but that is less important in a tournament setting with a slower pace.

I hate betting the favorites, but +150 for the two-time National Champions is certainly worth considering. Especially when their team structure is starting to resemble those of Jay Wright's past champions.

Connecticut Huskies (No. 3 Seed)

ODDS: +330

On the surface, Connecticut has the ideal profile and roster as a legitimate Big East Tournament contender, but something gives me pause when handicapping their chances. They were 22-8 in the regular season and 13-6 in the conference, finishing alone in third place in the Big East. Metrically, Connecticut is strong, ranking in the top 23 in adjusted offensive efficiency and in the top 30 in adjusted defensive efficiency, and they are massively strong on the offensive boards. The Huskies rank third overall in offensive rebounding percentage, led by 6-foot-9 Adama Sanogo's 8.6 rebounds per game.

However, they have critical statistical concerns on both ends of the floor. The Huskies allow 34.3% (217th) from three-point range overall, and 35.6% within Big East play. Also, for a team strong on the offensive boards, they are shockingly poor at interior scoring, only finishing inside the arc at a 48.3% rate overall, and 47.5% clip (eighth-best) in the conference.

The Huskies are an enigma. They had a run of five straight wins over St. John's, Seton Hall, Xavier, Villanova and Georgetown, before losing to Creighton. But with the exception of that victory over the Wildcats win, are they just "king of the little people?" Connecticut does clearly have Marquette's number, defeating the Golden Eagles twice. It's difficult for me to project that Connecticut can actually win the Big East Tournament, but they do have the pieces to make a deep run if they can just find consistent scoring on offense.

Best Value

Providence Friars (No. 1 Seed)

ODDS: +500

Many have criticized Providence for being "the luckiest team" in college basketball, en route to their first-ever Big East regular-season title. Villanova fans have been extremely vocal, citing their two more wins as a reason for the unfair conference standings. The Friars are 24-4 and 14-3 within the Big East, but could not play twice against Creighton, Seton Hall and Connecticut twice due to COVID-19 cancellations.

Providence plays at a slow and deliberate pace ranking 289th in adjusted tempo. Per KenPom, they are top-30 in adjusted offensive efficiency and top-65 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Friars are strong at defending the interior, allowing just 46.2% overall, and equally strong at defending the arc. Providence opponents are shooting just 31.4% from deep overall and 31.1% from three-point range in Big East play. Providence relies on center Nate Watson and potential Big East Defensive Player of the Year, Justin Minaya, to stifle opponents both on the interior and perimeter.

The hot-shooting of senior A.J. Reeves (10.4 PPG, 29.4% 3P) has been a critical weapon down the stretch of the season. Reeves has scored 15+ points in four of the past five games. He completes a fantastic guard trio of Al Durham (13.3 PPG, 85% FT) and big-shot Jared Bynum (12.9 PPG, 43.8% 3P).

The public can keep doubting the Friars, but I'm backing Providence as my favorite play at +500 to win Ed Cooley's second Big East Tournament title.

The Home Underdog

St. John's (No. 7 Seed)

ODDS: +2200

Any time you examine the Big East Tournament, it's easy to justify backing the St. John's Red Storm. They are great at forcing turnovers on defense and don't turn the ball over on offense with a guard-heavy attack. They are also strong at defending inside the arc, allowing opponents to shoot only 47.3% from two-point range. The struggle to consistently defend the three-point shot, allowing opponents to shoot almost 35% from deep (243rd worst in the nation).

St. John's is terrible at the free throw line, shooting just 67.5%, which drops to 66.3% in Big East play (worst in the conference). The Red Storm will need a huge tournament from junior Julian Champagnie (18.9 PPG), who has struggled to find offensive efficiency throughout the season. St.John's just hasn't been able to find consistent success, especially against the Big East's top teams, losing twice to Providence, Villanova, and Connecticut. It's difficult to see a team winless against the conference's elite notching four victories in four days, but head coach Mike Anderson will always have hope and a big home-court advantage at Madison Square Garden.

The Upstart

Marquette Golden Eagles (No. 5 Seed)

ODDS: +800

One of the biggest surprises in the country this year was the Marquette Golden Eagles led by first-year head coach Shaka Smart. After a frustrating tenure in Texas, Smart's "in your face" aggressive style has resonated with the young Golden Eagles, finishing a respectable 18-11 on the season. Marquette started 8-2 in the non-conference with impressive consecutive wins over Illinois, Mississippi and Virginia.

In Big East play, Marquette rattled off seven consecutive wins in the middle of the year, including a home win over Providence and a road win at Villanova. The Golden Eagles are dangerous, young, confident and have nothing to lose. Marquette stumbled down the stretch, losing four of their last seven games, including road losses to DePaul, Creighton and Butler. However, in a single-elimination tournament, the upstart Golden Eagles is a team no one wants to play.

Smart's team is playing quality defense across the board, ranking in the top 40 in adjusted defensive efficiency and allowing just 31.6% from three-point range and 45.9% from inside the arc. The key with Marquette is will they shoot well enough because they are the absolute worst rebounding team throughout the entire Big East. However, in Big East play, their defensive metrics have been slightly-below their seasonal averages, but their offensive statistics have been much better. The Golden Eagles are shooting 37.2% (second-best) from beyond the arc and 53% from two-point range (first overall). They have also made their free throws at a 77.7% clip in Big East play.

Marquette is such a hard team to project, they play at a quick pace (third-fastest overall) but their lack of rebounding would probably be their downfall against a team such as Connecticut, who beat them twice this year. However, with the Huskies on the other side of the bracket, the Golden Eagles are a great bet at +800 as a team that Villanova and Providence will hope gets eliminated early.

The Wild Card

Seton Hall (No. 6 Seed)

ODDS: +1500

Much like Connecticut, Kevin Willard's Pirates are an enigma. Seton Hall is 20-9 overall and enjoyed a fantastic 9-1 start to the season after non-conference play. They tallied an impressive road win at Michigan and a close, neutral-court loss at Ohio State, but then lost six of their first nine Big East games. Those losses had fans questioning just how good Seton Hall can be this season. They have finished off the year in strong fashion, with five consecutive victories, including two true road wins at Xavier and Creighton.

Seton Hall looks good metrically, but their offense has holes. They rank 297th in two-point efficiency, shooting only 46.8%, and only manage 33.2% from beyond the arc. Their defense is solid, ranking in the top 28 overall in adjusted defensive efficiency while allowing opponents to shoot just 31% from three-point range and 45.5% on the interior. The Pirates have also suffered from horrific luck, with opponents shooting a blistering 77.2% from the free throw line.

It's difficult to back an offensively-challenged Seton Hall team that is good, but not great, defensively. Their lack of consistent interior scoring will be an even bigger problem in the slower pace of the Big East Tournament. I like teams like Marquette and even Creighton (without Ryan Nembhard) much more than Seton Hall, as the Pirates have too many concerning holes.