Forecasting 2020 NFL Rookie WR Success: 3-Year Model

May 04, 2020
Forecasting 2020 NFL Rookie WR Success: 3-Year Model

The 2020 NFL Draft is now in the books, giving us dozens of new offensive players to consider for our fantasy teams. In this article, I will discuss some of the key rookie wide receivers to focus on going into 2020 fantasy drafts.


Other Rookie Forecasting Articles: RB | LB


Our friends over at Dynasty League Football (DLF) have already released post-draft rookie ADP, and as expected, CeeDee Lamb and Jerry Jeudy are the top two receivers off the board. Both are extremely talented and worthy of a first-round pick. In fact, they are arguable bargains right now, as you can sometimes get them in the middle of the first round. (Many rookie drafts are starting out by taking five running backs, which leaves Lamb and Jeudy available at the 1.06. Even if you aren't quite that lucky, there is a strong chance at least one of them is available at 1.05.

Below, we will look at some of the receivers you can get later in the draft that also have a good chance to turn into high-quality fantasy assets for your dynasty team.

Forecasting Wide Receiver Success

As in the past three years, I am using a combination of two models. The first is a standard statistical model (built using logistic regression) and the second is a more sophisticated machine learning model. The odds reported below take a weighted average of the individual predictions of the two models, which tends to be more accurate than each model individually.

In past seasons, the model has highlighted undervalued players like Cooper Kupp, Kenny Golladay and Michael Gallup.

Next, we will look at the top rookie values at the wide receiver position for 2020:

For those interested, there is a table at the end that shows the predictions from both models for all drafted receivers.

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