Thursday Night DFS Single-Game Breakdown: Eagles at Packers
If you would have told me at the beginning of the season that the Packers were 3-0, I would have surely thought they were led there by the arm of Aaron Rodgers. Instead, it has been a stalwart defense that has shut down opposing offenses and has been the talk of the team. Rodgers, in fact, has struggled somewhat adjusting to Matt LaFleur's new offensive scheme. Their opponent this week, the Philadelphia Eagles, came into the season with hype and expectation, but have been a major disappointment thus far with a 1-2 record. They'll be doing everything in their power to not drop to 1-3 and I half expect them to go into Green Bay and win this game.
Let's break down the game and how we can find the edge that might get us at the top of the leaderboards.
- Jake Kumerow, GB, WR - Questionable
- Jimmy Graham, GB, TE - Questionable
- Corey Clement, PHI, RB - Questionable
- DeSean Jackson, PHI, WR - Doubtful
Graham is expected to play, but outside of Week 1, he's been a ghost on the field. DeSean Jackson remains out, but Alshon Jeffery and Dallas Goedert return to the field. These two coming back is a significant hit to the values of Nelson Agholor, Mack Hollins, and J.J. Arcega-Whiteside.
Evaluation of Vegas Spread and Total
Green Bay -4.5 Over/Under 45
Vegas expects Green Bay to win this game, with it being somewhat competitive and a moderate amount of points being put up. I broke it down into probabilities based on the Vegas spread, but I also put in parentheses what I personally think are the probabilities. I'm doing this because I can see a world where the Eagles get out fast and force the Packers to increase their tempo and thus the number of points being scored. I also see a potential for either team to get a big lead and hold onto it. The probability is still that it's going to be a competitive game (I give that a 70% likelihood), but some outlier games are also possible and that the 45 point over/under is probably 2-3 points too low.
Let's look at the likely game flow given this spread and total and assign some probabilities to each potential outcome.
- Close, low-scoring game (<40 points) - 25% (10%)
- Close, average-scoring game (40-49 points) - 35% (40%)
- Close, high-scoring game (50+ points) - 15% (20%)
- Blowout for the home team, low-scoring game - 10% (0%)
- Blowout for the home team, average-scoring game - 15% (10%)
- Blowout for the home team, high-scoring game - 5% (10%)
- Blowout for the away team, low-scoring game - 0% (0%)
- Blowout for the away team, average-scoring game - 0% (5%)
- Blowout for the away team, high-scoring game - 0% (5%)
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