Exploiting Defenses in DFS - Week 11

Exploiting Defenses in DFS - Week 11

By Mike Woellert (IDP Expert), last update Nov 20, 2015

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Mike is an IDP veteran, writing about and ranking IDP for over six season. He finished 6th in overall IDP rankings and 1st overall LB rankings in 2014 at FantasyPros. When he's not poring over IDP depth charts, he can be found agonizing over his Cleveland sports teams.

Follow Mike Woellert on Twitter: @Mike_Woellert.

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When it comes to DFS lineups, looking at matchups and opportunities will be key in constructing a winning lineup. Everyone knows that A.J. Green is a top receiver, but that doesn’t necessarily make him a slam dunk starter every week in DFS; sometimes the matchup doesn’t play out. Green is typically one of the top wide receivers, but there will always be one with a cheaper price tag in a similar spot for production with a better matchup. Although, it’s worth noting that Green’s price tag is still reasonable.

We’re hitting Week 11 and sample sizes have become trends. If a particular cornerback is getting burned, he’s someone to target each week. The same goes for run defense. At this point of the season, if a defense is bad, they aren’t going to magically improve, so start to use the numbers to your advantage.

It’s one thing to look at match-ups and see which team is allowing the most fantasy points to a position, however, it's best to dig even deeper. Each week, I’ll help you exploit specific defensive players and also touch on non-skill offensive players (read: the offensive line) to help you make the right choices on which players to roster and which players to fade in DFS lineups.

Last week we had our hits with Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, Brandin Cooks, Rishard Matthews, Jarvis Landry and Danny Amendola. We also had our misses with Doug Martin (who I think I’m done with writing up), the Cincinnati running backs, James Starks and Jordan Matthews. Let’s enjoy the wins and try to increase our hit rate even more in Week 11.

This week represents a few challenges, as some of our favorite targets (Saints, Browns and Giants) are on bye this week. As always, we’ll look at those favorable situations, but I’ll also point out some of the tougher matchups this week.


Situations to Exploit in the Passing Game

Marvin Jones might’ve hauled in only four catches last week, but he still saw nine targets and now has five straight games of five or more targets. Though the Bengals draw a tough matchup with the Cardinals, Jones is the receiver I’d target in this one. He is likely to draw cornerback Jerraud Powers in coverage this week. Powers has been the weakest link in the Arizona secondary, as he’s allowed 28 catches for 421 yards, including 110 yards after the catch. He’s also been responsible for three scores. I think Jones flies under the radar this week.

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