Week 4 NFL Survivor 2025 Pool Picks

For the first time in my larger pool, there was some real carnage. Hopefully, you stuck with our more reasonable picks and didn’t fly off the beaten path with the Falcons. Does it count as flying when you don’t cross your opponent’s 30-yard line all game? Using the tools we have available to us from our friends over at PoolGenius, we can look at this week with an eye towards the future to set ourselves up for success.

Week 4 Strategy

I got burned last week by Atlanta. They came in around 6% of that pool that I’m in, and I think given that and the situation heading into the game, I would have done the same thing. That may be stubborn, but that play had plenty of leverage on the field. Green Bay’s loss wiped out up to 20% of some pools. If Tampa Bay doesn’t close that game against the Jets, you’d have been sitting pretty with the Falcons if they were even slightly competent on Sunday.

I know that’s a lot of “ifs” but that’s the game we play. We sometimes trade in some EV for leverage, and we pay for it.

To be successful at survivor, you need to think about the following and adjust accordingly:

• Pool characteristics (size, rules, etc)

• Current remaining entries

• Personal risk tolerance

• Game theory (thinking of opponent choices and behavior)

The Chalk

The Bills and Lions will likely account for over 50% of the remaining picks in most pools.

Buffalo is a -1800 favorite against the clear worst team in the NFL. They have the added benefit of playing this game at home, but I don’t care if it were being played in Antarctica, on Saturn, or in the middle of the ocean; it wouldn’t affect the outcome. The Bills have plenty of future value. Looking through their schedule, there doesn't seem to be a game where they'd be the underdog for the rest of the season.

Detroit gets a matchup against Cleveland. The Browns seem to be the living embodiment of the kombucha girl meme. Are they good? No? Maybe? Yes! Meh. The Lions are 9-point favorites and looked good on Monday Night Football. With 81% win probability, fading them is probably getting way too cute, but something about it just doesn’t feel great. With multiple entries, they’re obviously in play, but with just one pick in a pool, I’m not fully confident in burning them this week.

Off The Beaten Path

Two teams are tempting to me. Green Bay, even though they are on the road in Dallas, is very intriguing. They aren’t going to be useful again for a few weeks and have a difficult schedule down the stretch. Houston is another option. They can’t go 0-4, right? It’s a divisional matchup, which can be scary, but I just can't imagine the Texans dropping this game. The other advantage to using them here is that I don’t know if they will be in the survivor conversation again until Week 11. They seem like the perfect pick for Pool B. If they can get their first win, that pool is set up quite nicely with no juggernauts off the board.

Official Picks

I’m going to give three picks and track how the season goes for each as if it were its own pool. Pool A is our conservative pool. Pool B is straying a little bit from the most popular options, but not going too far. Pool C will only be our “Off The Beaten Path” picks. Since that pool was eliminated, we’ll leave that marked off, but I’ll still give some alternative options in that section of the article.

• Pool A: Buffalo Bills vs. New Orleans Saints (Used: PHI, BAL, SEA)
• Pool B: Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans (Used: ARI, DAL, TB)
• Pool C: (Used: WAS, LAR, Eliminated: Atlanta Falcons)