Week 3 NFL Survivor 2025 Pool Picks

All was calm again in Week 2. My guess is that most pools are still around 80% - 90% full at this point. Using the tools we have available to us from our friends over at PoolGenius, we can look at this week with an eye towards the future to set ourselves up for success. They have great tracking tools, too, with custom rankings based on your pool size and entrants left!

Week 3 Strategy

You never want to go too crazy looking far into the future, but thinking about a team's value in the next few upcoming weeks can prove profitable. We’re not targeting games in December right now, obviously, but foregoing Buffalo in all three of our pool picks so far gives us some flexibility over the next couple of weeks. They face Miami, New Orleans, and New England the next three weeks.

To be successful at survivor, you need to think about the following and adjust accordingly:

• Pool characteristics (size, rules, etc)

• Current remaining entries

• Personal risk tolerance

• Game theory (thinking of opponent choices and behavior)

The Chalk

As I mentioned, Buffalo seems to be high on everyone’s priority list this week. With a -805 moneyline and a -11.5 point spread, it’s easy to tell why. They have the most future value, though, of any team in the immediate future.

The Ravens have the second most future value, per our friends at PoolGenius, but the real meat of their value hits from Week 8-13, with five of six games in the 80%+ win probability range. We may use them before then, but it’s tempting to hold off for a bit if other options shake out properly. They’re firmly out of the conversation this week with a big matchup against Detroit, so that conversation can wait.

The second-most popular team this week, behind the Bills, is the Seahawks. The Bills and Seahawks should soak up about 50% of most pools’ picks. With a heavy game theory outlook that makes them both very intriguing fades this week, but Seattle won’t have much value over the next month and a half. Hosting the Saints seems like the best chance we’ll have at using them until at least the double-digit weeks.

Just below them in popularity are the bays. Tampa Bay and Green Bay are projected for 17% and 11%, respectively. Both intriguing options that have looked very good in the first two weeks of the season.

Off The Beaten Path

I don’t love going past everyone I’ve listed thus far, but if you’re feeling daring, Atlanta represents a huge leverage opportunity this week. They are on the road against Carolina, where they’re favored by 5.5 points. It will almost definitely be the last time they are favored over the next month, so now may be the time to pounce and save the Bills, Packers, and Ravens.

Official Picks

I’m going to give three picks and track how the season goes for each as if it were its own pool. Pool A is our conservative pool. Pool B is straying a little bit from the most popular options but not going too far. Pool C will only be our “Off The Beaten Path” picks.

• Pool A: Seattle Seahawks vs New Orleans Saints (Used: PHI, BAL)
• Pool B: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New York Jets (Used: ARI, DAL)
• Pool C: Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (Used: WAS, LAR)