Week 2 NFL Survivor 2025 Pool Picks: Risk vs Reward

All was calm in Week 1. There wasn’t even much sweat with our three selections from last week, so we’re turning our attention to Week 2. Using the tools we have available to us from our friends over at PoolGenius, we can look at this week with an eye towards the future to set ourselves up for success.

We've partnered with PoolGenius again this year to bring some extra insight to our picks for this piece. You can get a free trial to test drive their site for Week 2 by clicking here!

Week 2 Strategy

We’re still trying to keep things simple to start the year. There’s a very clear choice at the top with a double-digit spread to use. Beyond that, though, there are some spicy options. The choice for Week 2 really comes down to risk tolerance. The question is, what are you trying to optimize for? Your two choices are: surviving the whole year or maximizing your chance at winning the pool. Those two things may sound similar, but they’re not the same.

To be successful at survivor, you need to think about the following and adjust accordingly:

• Pool characteristics (size, rules, etc)

• Current remaining entries

• Personal risk tolerance

• Game theory (thinking of opponent choices and behavior)

The Chalk

The absolute chalk is Baltimore this week. They are favored by 11.5 points at home against Cleveland. The Browns hung in the game against Cincinnati in Week 1, but the Ravens aren’t the Bengals. Our good friends at PoolGenius have the Ravens projected for about 32% of the picks this week. That’s a huge chunk, but it seems warranted given the -850 moneyline. As of right now, the Ravens look like they’ll be favored in every game for the rest of the season, so you’ll have to weigh your risk tolerance and decide if it’s worth burning them in Week 2.

The duo of Arizona and Dallas accounts for about 30% of the picks this week. So we’re looking at nearly two-thirds of picks on these three teams. Neither team has much future value, so it would make sense to target them this week. They’re both just shy of being touchdown favorites, and they’re both hosting teams that aren’t necessarily scaring anyone. The combination of the large spread and the lack of future value makes them very enticing this weekend.

No other team is projected for a double-digit pick percentage at this point, but there are some intriguing options across the next few popular teams.

Off The Beaten Path

The Rams, Bills, and Lions have a 70% or higher win probability, and all three also boast decent future value. The next largest spread the Rams will have doesn’t come until Week 9 when they host New Orleans, so they’re the most intriguing option of that trio for me. Being on the road did give me brief pause, but then I remembered the shenanigans the Titans pulled off in Week 1, and I felt better.

Buffalo hosts the Dolphins, the Saints, and the Patriots over the next three weeks, so we will likely use them at some point during that stretch. The Lions host the Browns in Week 4, which might be the best week to target them.

Official Picks

I’m going to give three picks and track how the season goes for each as if it were its own pool. Pool A is our conservative pool. Pool B is straying a little bit from the most popular options, but not going too far. Pool C will only be our “Off The Beaten Path” picks.

• Pool A: Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns (Used: PHI)
• Pool B: Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants (Used: ARI)
• Pool C: Los Angeles Rams at Tennessee Titans (Used: WAS)