Chalkboard Week 16 Player Prop Bets Article
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What is Chalkboard?
Chalkboard Fantasy Sports is a mobile app where you pick “higher” or “lower” on player stat lines, stacking two-to-eight picks for payouts that can climb to about 5,000× your entry. You can play real-money DFS in eligible states or switch to a free sweepstakes mode, and built-in chatrooms let you share picks with friends. Extra options like Max Cash for high upside and Shield Play for pick insurance let you dial up or down the risk.
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Every week, I’ll be posting a few of my favorite plays in this article with brief write-ups of each play. I’ll use this space below to recap the previous week and share any thoughts or takeaways I have going forward.
Week 15 Recap
We notched our third straight green week on Chalkboard and were just a hair away from a true smash. One of the losses that kept it from being a blowout was Robinson over 21.5 rushing yards, which I still believe was a strong bet—especially after the CMC questionable tag surfaced on Saturday and only added to the conviction. Robinson ended with nine carries and finished at 21 rushing yards after losing a yard on his final attempt. It was a brutal beat, and I’d happily take over 21.5 rushing yards on any player seeing nine carries in a game. One of our wins was Bryce Young under 30.5 pass attempts. Carolina is a run-first team, and in a game environment like Sunday’s, 30.5 was simply too high of a number for Bryce. He finished with just 24 attempts, making this one completely sweat-free.
The final bet I want to highlight is Michael Wilson over 4.5 receptions. As I noted in the original write-up, his role without Marvin is absurd. Wilson saw double-digit targets for the fourth straight game in Marvin’s absence, and any player commanding that level of usage should not be priced at 4.5 receptions. Here’s hoping the green streak keeps rolling.
Week 16 NFL Bets
Baker Mayfield UNDER 32.5 Pass Attempts
Baker has gone under 32.5 pass attempts in five of Tampa Bay’s seven wins this season, and with the Bucs sitting as 3-point road favorites in a must-win divisional game against Carolina, the setup points to a similar script. The Panthers’ offense consistently drags games down, ranking second-to-last in PROE and 27th in total plays run. In fact, the most recent quarterback to throw 33 or more passes against Carolina was Jordan Love back in Week 9—and that was in a game the Panthers somehow won.
Travis Kelce OVER 4.5 Receptions
stepped in on the Chiefs’ final drive last week after Mahomes was injured and immediately leaned on Kelce, targeting him on three of his five pass attempts. I expect that trend to continue, with Minshew and the offense funneling volume toward Kelce—especially with Rice out. I’m usually not one to buy into narratives, but there’s a real chance these are the final three games of Kelce’s career. If that’s the case, why not go out swinging? He needs just 203 yards over the final three games to reach 1,000 on the season.
Justin Jefferson OVER 4.5 Receptions
I honestly can’t remember the last time Justin Jefferson was lined at just 4.5 receptions. Even with an up-and-down season, his role has remained firmly elite. In Week 15, the Vikings posted the fifth-highest PROE (+4%), and Jefferson still saw eight targets, including a touchdown that was called back, a drop in the end zone, and a wide-open miss from McCarthy. While Minnesota is out of the playoff picture, the final three games are important for evaluating whether McCarthy is the quarterback of the future. Jefferson is far too talented for this level of inefficiency to persist, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Vikings lean into him with heavy volume as they try to finish the season strong.
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