How to Play NFL DFS in 2025
In my last article, I discussed why Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) is worth playing in 2025. In this one, let’s shift gears into the how — specifically, how to build winning lineups in NFL DFS.
I recently joined Pat Mayo and Tyler Tamboline on the Mayo Media Network to talk through this exact topic — you can catch that episode here:
In this article, I’ll review some of the strategies we discussed on the show, along with additional tips that can give you an edge this season.
It’s a Numbers Game, Literally
At its core, NFL DFS is a puzzle. You’re building a lineup that mirrors a traditional football roster:
- 1 QB
- 2 RBs
- 3 WRs
- 1 TE
- 1 FLEX (RB/WR/TE)
- 1 DST
Each player is assigned a salary by the site (DraftKings, FanDuel, etc.), and you’re required to build a lineup that fits under the salary cap. Players earn fantasy points based on their performance that day, according to the site’s scoring system. Whichever lineup scores the most points wins.
Some quick reminders here — even for seasoned players:
- “That day” matters. Future potential is irrelevant. Every week, people ask about a backup who might go off if given the chance. Unless you have direct info about an increased role, that player’s potential doesn’t matter if he’s not on the field. Opportunity is what matters.
- Scoring system matters. DraftKings is full PPR, FanDuel is half PPR. That difference changes player value significantly. On FanDuel, touchdowns and yardage carry more weight, and with its looser salary cap, rushing QBs and non-pass-catching RBs often gain value.
Contest Selection Matters
The DFS lobby can feel overwhelming. You’ll see everything from massive “Milly Maker” tournaments with hundreds of thousands of entries, to small, single-entry contests where everyone submits just one lineup. Picking the right contest is just as important as building the lineup itself.
Cash Games
Cash games (50/50s, double-ups, triple-ups) pay out roughly half the field at a flat rate. The goal is just to finish above the line. That means focusing on safe, high-volume players.
Tournaments (GPPs)
Tournaments are different. Only the top ~20% of lineups cash, with a huge chunk going to first place. To win, you need ceiling outcomes. That means stacking players for correlation, embracing variance, and finding lower-owned plays to separate your lineup.
My Contest Strategy
Personally, I lean tournaments over cash games. Cash games have grown tougher with projections and optimizers widely available. Within tournaments, I suggest starting with lower stakes. For example, if you’re playing $20, enter four $5 contests instead of one $20 contest. It reduces variance and lets you diversify lineups.
I also recommend single-entry contests. They’re overlooked by casual players, level the playing field, and often return higher ROI than massive multi-entry GPPs.
Projections and How to Use Them
One of the biggest shifts in DFS over the past decade is the rise of projections. Ten years ago, most players relied on gut instinct and highlight reels. Today, nearly every serious DFS player uses projections.
As part of the 4for4 DFS package, you’ll have access to weekly projections for both fantasy points and contest ownership — built by some of the sharpest, most data-driven analysts in the industry.
📝 Sign up: https://4for4.com/plans
🎟️ Choose the DFS plan
💸 Use code SQUIRREL for 25% off the $99 season sub
The best projection systems factor in Vegas lines, matchups, weather, injuries, and historical performance — and they update constantly. These systems are very good at estimating long-term outcomes, but they’re not crystal balls.
The Projection Trap
A common mistake is playing the highest-projected lineup every week. In all my years, I’ve never seen the “optimal” lineup take down a large-field tournament. Football is too volatile. Injuries, game flow, and variance can derail even the best projections.
When a chalky, highly-owned player fails, half the field can sink with them. That’s why successful players combine projections with ownership, leverage, and correlation.
Stacking with Projections
This is where projections get powerful. By themselves, they show individual expectations. But DFS is about lineups, not just players.
Stacking — pairing a QB with his WR/TEs and often a “bring-back” from the opposing team — creates correlation. If the game shoots out, your lineup rockets up the standings. A QB projected for 20 and a WR projected for 18 aren’t independent — if the WR smashes, the QB usually does too.
Ownership Matters — But Maybe Not Like It Used To
Ownership projections tell you how popular certain players will be. They matter, because if a player at 50% ownership busts, half the field goes down with him —and a pivot gives you leverage.
But ownership isn’t everything. Other players are thinking about it too, and DFS simulations can even pull ownership away from certain spots unexpectedly. My own research has shown projected ownership sometimes correlates with winning lineups more than projected fantasy points —which suggests some players are over-correcting by avoiding chalk.
Still, fading everything chalky isn’t the answer. Most winning lineups include a mix of popular and contrarian plays. Chalk is often chalk for good reason — injuries or matchups that make a player a great value. The trick is balance: mix strong chalk with smart pivots.
Have Fun
At the end of the day, DFS is supposed to be fun. Yes, it’s competitive and can be profitable, but don’t forget why you started playing in the first place — the sweat of watching your players rack up points on Sunday and competing against other people.
- Play within your means and keep things set at a level that won’t get you stressed if you lose.
- Manage your bankroll wisely.
- Enjoy the process — win or lose.
I hope you’ll join us at 4for4 this season with our DFS plan. You’ll get access to my weekly write-ups and picks for the main NFL slate, along with Thursday Night Football and Monday Night Football, as well as our subscribers-only Discord channel (where I’ll be on Sunday mornings), weekly podcasts, cash game recommendations, and additional primetime slate write-ups. The time to join is now – our DFS plan comes with all of the benefits of our excellent season-long package, meaning you can get the best preparation for your upcoming drafts and add the DFS plan for less than $20 more with the code below.
📝 Sign up: https://4for4.com/plans
🎟️ Choose the DFS plan
💸 Use code SQUIRREL for 25% off the $99 season sub
