Consistent Thunder: Why David Montgomery's Price is Right in 2025

Fantasy managers are rightfully in love with Jahmyr Gibbs' ceiling and explosiveness. The only thing left to debate is whether Detroit can support two fantasy-relevant running backs. David Montgomery has consistently provided reliable weekly production as the "Thunder" to Gibbs' "Lightning." Montgomery finished as a mid-range RB2 in half-PPR scoring despite missing the final three games with a torn MCL. He averaged 14.6 fantasy points per game when healthy. Montgomery is being drafted as the RB24 with an ADP of 71.6 which is a totally reasonable price given his personal track record, health, and team context heading into 2025.

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The Reliable Producer's Track Record

The "Thunder" type running backs don't always get the same press and hype as the "Lightning" guys, but Montgomery has been as steady as they come. Over his two seasons with the Lions, he's established himself as the preferred early-down and goal-line option, averaging 15 carries per game. His ability to earn first downs and find the end zone has been invaluable for this version of Detroit.

His 2024 season showcased exactly that. Montgomery scored touchdowns in 10 of his 14 healthy games, demonstrating the type of reliable red zone production that forms the backbone of fantasy relevance. Before suffering his MCL injury, he had 17 carries inside the five-yard line on the season. His receiving isn't talked about too often, but he earns high-value touches there as well. In 2024, he had 3+ receptions in 9 of his 14 healthy games. After averaging just over one reception per game in 2023, this newfound receiving work added weekly floor helped maintain and expand his fantasy relevance.

Health and Age: The Double-Edged Sword

We can't ignore Montgomery's torn MCL at the end of the season, but the fact that he returned for the playoffs is certainly a huge green flag for his availability and health heading into 2025. Montgomery has played 14 or fewer games in all but one of the last four season. It's hard to ignore those stretches where he's earning zero points for your squad.

It feels hilarious writing this as a 37-year-old, but at 28 years old this year, Montgomery is practically over the hill for running backs. Gibbs remains in the prime 22-25 age range where backs typically show their best combination of power and explosiveness.The age factor becomes more significant when considering Montgomery's role as the physical, between-the-tackles runner who absorbs the majority of contact in Detroit's system.

While his style has made him effective in short-yardage situations, it also increases his injury risk and could accelerate any decline. Luckily, a few games missed is priced in at his ADP. It's hard to imagine a scenario, even if he misses a few games, where he doesn't return value at his current draft price. The looming concern, though, is when do those missed games come. Weeks 6-8...who cares? Fantasy playoffs...not ideal.

Coaching Changes: Opportunity or Threat?

Ben Johnson's hiring in Chicago leaves a void at the offensive coordinator position in Detroit and introduces some volatility into Montgomery's projection. New coordinator John Morton inherits that working recipe from last season, but he has his own philosophy that could reshape the backfield in ways we aren't anticipating. Morton and the addition of Tashard Choice as the new running backs coach are both an opportunity and a risk for Montgomery. On one hand, a new set of eyes might be able to figure out how to better deploy Montgomery and keep him involved. On the other hand, it could also backfire for Montgomery's value.

The risk is that Morton decides to simplify the backfield by leaning heavily on Gibbs, potentially reducing Montgomery to a true backup role. Nobody would fault Morton for heavily featuring Gibbs' superior explosiveness and pass-catching ability, but it would crater Montgomery's value.

Draft Strategy and Value Assessment

Montgomery has a floor and a ceiling that are rare at the point in drafts where you're scooping him up. It's an appropriate price for his role limitations and his age/durability concerns. It's easy to envision him still paying off his ADP if he misses a few games or sees a slight dip in workload. This range of outcomes makes him neither a steal nor a reach at current cost.

Montgomery's value lies in understanding exactly what you're getting. If he is simply a goal-line specialist and/or early-down grinder, he will still provide consistent touches when in the lineup. His ceiling is capped by Gibbs' presence, but his floor is established by Detroit's philosophy.

While the fantasy community focuses on Gibbs' explosive potential, Montgomery continues doing what he's done for two seasons—providing reliable weekly production without the excitement. He's not the pick that wins leagues through domination, but rather the type of solid contributor that rarely loses a week for your squad. For managers who value dependable points, his combination of touchdown upside and steady usage fits perfectly into lineup construction strategies well.

The Bottom Line

• Proven role with touchdown upside
  • ​Established goal-line and early-down specialist who scored in 10 of 14 healthy games in 2024, providing the type of reliable red zone production that maintains weekly fantasy relevance.
• Health and age concerns create risk
  • ​History of missing games due to injury combined with entering age-28 season raises questions about durability and effectiveness in a physically demanding role.
• Coaching changes add uncertainty
  • ​New coordinator John Morton and RB coach Tashard Choice could alter backfield distribution, with risk of reduced role if they favor Gibbs' explosive ability over Montgomery's steady production.
• Appropriately priced for role limitations
  • ​RB24 ADP accurately reflects his ceiling constraints in a timeshare while acknowledging his reliable floor, making him neither undervalued nor overpriced at current cost.

Target Montgomery at or beyond ADP as a steady RB3/Flex option with RB2 upside if he stays healthy, understanding his value comes from consistent production rather than explosive performances in Detroit's proven two-back system.