Calvin Ridley’s Fantasy Outlook Is Stronger Than His ADP Suggests

Calvin Ridley enters 2025 with perhaps the largest upgrade at quarterback of any fantasy-relevant receiver. The 30-year-old veteran finished with 64 receptions for 1,017 yards and 4 touchdowns in his first Tennessee season. That was his second consecutive 1,000-yard campaign despite brutal play from the likes of Will Levis and Mason Rudolph. With first overall pick, Cam Ward, now under center, and Ridley currently being drafted at 55.7 ADP as WR32, fantasy managers have a rare opportunity to acquire a proven target monster at a steep discount.
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Volume Foundation Built on Target Dominance
Ridley's 2024 season saw him maintain elite involvement despite organizational dysfunction at the most important position. His 120 targets led Tennessee. The next closest pass-catcher on the Titans trailed behind by 50 targets. His 1,017 receiving yards more than doubled the next receiver, demonstrating clear alpha receiver status in an offense that desperately needed reliable hands.
Ridley was among the league leaders in air yards and downfield receptions while catching passes from largely incompetent passers. If the quarterback situation is resolved, Ridley's skillset and usage should be a recipe for fantasy gold. The addition of veterans Tyler Lockett and Van Jefferson provides depth but shouldn't significantly impact Ridley's target share given their complementary skill sets and his established role as the primary downfield threat.
The Quarterback Upgrade
The most encouraging aspect of Ridley's 2025 outlook is the dramatic improvement expected at quarterback with Cam Ward's arrival. Ridley's substantial involvement in the downfield passing game was frequently wasted due to poor quarterback accuracy and decision-making, highlighting how much production was left on the field. Ward's accurate arm and aggressive downfield approach should immediately improve the quality of targets Ridley receives.
Ward has dubbed Ridley a "dawg" and a top-five NFL wideout. The two new teammates have reportedly been inseparable over the past few months following the draft. This developing chemistry suggests the connection should be functional from Week 1, avoiding the typical growing pains associated with rookie quarterback-veteran receiver partnerships.
The upgrade becomes even more apparent when examining Ward's college profile. Ridley's skill set as a route-runner who can create separation and make contested catches aligns perfectly with Ward's strengths. We could be looking at a highly productive partnership that could prove valuable for fantasy managers.
Red Zone Regression Correction
Perhaps the most compelling case for Ridley's 2025 upside lies in his dramatic red zone usage decline. Ridley's red zone usage from 2023 to 2024 was one of the most severe declines we've seen in recent memory. Whether it was quarterback play, trust, or just the offensive struggles as a whole, his touchdown equity held him back.
Ridley's two biggest fantasy seasons were directly tied to touchdown equity, as he was among the league leaders in end zone targets in both 2020 and 2023. His track record suggests that when quarterbacks trust him and offenses can move the ball effectively, he naturally becomes a primary red zone weapon. Ward's arrival should hopefully restore both of those key elements. If his target share stabilizes and we see a bump in red zone success, his ADP will look foolish come playoff time.
Supporting Cast and Value Assessment
Tennessee's offseason additions of Tyler Lockett and Van Jefferson provide veteran depth without directly competing for Ridley's primary role as the downfield threat. Both newcomers profile as possession receivers who can handle underneath work, potentially freeing Ridley for higher-value assignments. The developing Ward-Ridley connection suggests the organization views him as a cornerstone piece rather than a short-term solution.
At his current ADP, Ridley represents one of the most compelling options in 2025 fantasy drafts. His combination of proven target dominance, quarterback upgrade, and possible red zone regression creates a profile that could easily finish as a top-20 fantasy receiver while being drafted outside the top-30 at the position. The 5th-round ADP allows fantasy managers to secure reliable weekly volume with significant upside if Ward develops quickly.
His durability and consistent production suggest he is still in his productive window despite hitting his age-30 season. Ridley should be able to maximize his production this season.
The Bottom Line
- Proven volume with elite target share
- Led Tennessee with 120 targets despite poor quarterback play, commanding 50 more targets than the next receiver and maintaining his role as the clear alpha in the passing offense.
- Dramatic quarterback upgrade potential
- Less than two-thirds of his targets were catchable in 2024, with Cam Ward's accuracy and downfield aggression representing a massive improvement that should unlock significant production gains.
- Severe red zone regression primed for correction
- Plummeted from league-leading 25 end zone targets in 2023 to just 4 in 2024, creating substantial touchdown upside with improved quarterback play and offensive efficiency.
- Exceptional value at current ADP
- Being drafted as WR32 at 55.7 ADP represents strong value for a proven target monster whose situation improvements could easily produce top-20 fantasy receiver results.
Target Ridley in Round 5 as a high-ceiling WR2 with the floor of a consistent weekly starter and the upside of a top-15 fantasy receiver if Tennessee's quarterback upgrade translates to the red zone opportunities his talent deserves.