6 Fantasy Football QBs Whose Touchdowns Are Trending Up & Down
Last week, we started this year's review of outlier touchdown data — and the relevant fallout for 2025 — with the running back position. Now, we swap over to quarterback, where our focus shifts to individual player efficiency and what the lessons of 2024 teach us about the studs (or duds) of 2025.
More Outlier TD Pieces: RB | WR | TE
In nearly every circumstance, touchdowns are the most volatile statistic to track. But, as we all know, they’re also the most crucial. In typical scoring, a quarterback can drive the entirety of the field, completing 10 passes for 98 yards along the way, and a single shovel pass for a touchdown from the goal line counts for more points than the prior 10 completions combined.
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But if touchdowns are so volatile and inconsistent, how will we ever find success predicting the year-to-year results? Through our old friend, Regression to the Mean. Put simply, the further a player is from their statistical average in a given sample, the more likely they are to regress back towards that average — whether positively or negatively — in successive samples. The average NFL-wide touchdown rate for qualified QBs in 2023 was 4.8%, and the average over the last decade is 4.6%. Over that same span, the data clearly shows that the further from the mean a quarterback strayed in a given season, the more drastic the correction appeared the following season.
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