Super Bowl NFL Player Prop Bets: Best Player Props to Bet from Monotone Football

The Super Bowl is one of the most universally bet games of the season, and we are coming in locked and loaded with plenty of bets for the big game. It's the biggest prop board of the season, and I look forward to finding some value in these expanded markets that aren't normally offered.

Last round, we unfortunately saw my Commanders fall to the Eagles in the conference championships, but I look forward to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs avenging that loss. It's been a fantastic season, and while I hate to see it end, I’m excited to have one more fantastic matchup to bet on. Check out my best bets for the Super Bowl below!

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Super Bowl 59 Props

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Dallas Goedert over 46.5 receiving yards -114

with Noonan & Connor!

The Chiefs allowed the most yards to tight ends this season at 1,191 (66 yards per game), allowing 10 games with a TE clearing 46.5 yards. This includes:

• Brock Bowers: 140 and 58 yards
• Isaiah Likely: 111 yards
• Kittle: 92 yards
• Gesicki: 91 yards
• Otton: 77 yards
• Freiermuth: 60 yards
• Pitts: 59 yards
• Stone Smartt: 54 yards
• Ja'Tavion Sanders: 49 yards

Since Goedert returned from injury, he has been on an absolute tear with gams of 7/85, 4/56, 4/47, 4/55 (no Hurts). The other games all came with Jalen Hurts throwing the ball only 28, 20, and 21 times. There are plenty of scenarios where the Eagles have to throw the ball a bit more here so volume could also be a boost to Goedert. With a good matchup and potentially more volume, we wanted to get ahead of this one and think it could close in the low 50's.

Risk to win 1 unit (-114 at FD, 47.5 DK, 48.5 Builder, fine up to 51.5)

Patrick Mahomes o23.5 completions -125

Mahomes finished the regular season with a career-low 6.8 yards per attempt and a 67.5 completion percentage, running through the league with a 15-2 record despite a rather unexplosive offense. Philly has allowed 6.1 yards per attempt between the regular season and playoffs. That was the lowest among all NFL teams, and it’s clear the Fangio system is built around keeping everything in front of the defense and limiting big plays. The Chiefs have spent all season long efficiently dominating games while generating explosive plays at a below-average rate. I think if anyone is built to come in and take advantage of that scheme, it’s Mahomes.

Beyond the fact that Mahomes is the best quarterback on the planet, the Chiefs really don't have much of a choice but to pass, regardless of the game script. Kareem Hunt has been serviceable this season, but the RBs get a tough matchup, and Andy Reid is smart enough to put the ball in his superstar’s hands. Philly finished the regular season ranked second in PFF run D while allowing the second-lowest EPA per rush & fourth-lowest yards per carry to opposing running backs this season. With tougher conditions on the ground, I’m expecting increased passing volume that I don't think is being priced in enough.

Jayden Daniels and Matthew Stafford both posted top-5 completion games in the first two matchups, with 29 and 26 completions over the last two rounds.

-125 365/ESPN, -132 FD, -133 DK, -135 CZR Risk 1u playable to -140

Xavier Worthy o5.5 receptions +112

We’ve had a lot of success betting on Xavier Worthy in the second half of the season, and I think we can once again be in the Super Bowl. He ended the season with 6+ receptions in 4 of his last 5 games, establishing himself as the lead option on a stacked Cheifs roster averaging over 80% of snaps to end the season. I expect the Eagles to really focus on Travis Kelce, and with the Eagles forcing tons of quick passing, Xavier Worthy should be a guy who sees increased volume.

The Eagles are a heavy zone coverage defense, and they like to keep everything in front of them. Xavier Worthy has an insanely low 2.4 average depth of target, which means he has extremely high percentage targets to convert on. Since Hollywood Brown rejoined the team, Worthy is averaging over two screen passes per game, giving him an incredibly safe baseline. Not only is he leading all receivers in routes with the safest role on the team, but he also gets a bunch of short-yardage passes, making him an ideal target for receptions. He’s looked better every week and you can really see the trust with Mahomes.

It’s also positive to see the coaching staff echo these same sentiments, "The kid every week, has just gotten better and better," Reid said. "He's really put together a nice half of the season, the second half here, not that he didn't have good plays in the first half. But you could see he was learning in the first half”.

+115 MGM, +112 FD, +110 CZR playable to even money risk 0.5u

JuJu Smith-Schuster o1.5 receptions -115

H/T to Connor who has a good writeup on JuJu - I don’t think his snap share is quite accurately being priced in here. Love what his role should be over the middle.

Juju has seen his role grow substantially in the playoffs, with a 41% and 63% route run rate in the last two games. He has surpassed DeAndre Hopkins in the pecking order and only ran 4 fewer routes than Hollywood Brown last week. He went 2-60 last week against the Bills on 3 targets despite fairly limited passing volume from Mahomes.

It's also easy to forget that right after Rashee Rice's injury, Juju was his "replacement" and had a game with 130 yards and 7 catches. This is not comparable, given Worthy's ascension and Hollywood Brown's return, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Juju as an important part of this gameplan in the slot.

Without Nakobe Dean, LB Oren Burks has allowed 21-of-23 targets to be caught this season and Juju runs a ton of his routes over the middle and predominantly lined up in the interior last week. I fully expect Vic Fangio to have a plan for Kelce and maybe even stick Cooper DeJean on him a fair amount. With that happening and both outside corners likely holding their own, that leaves Juju and Xavier Worthy against linebackers over the middle. That's how he got a 30-yard catch last week, finding a pocket in the zone in between the linebackers on a slant. This will likely be one of the Chiefs' biggest matchup advantages on offense in the Super Bowl as well.

Even if the entire handicap doesn't pan out, this number is so low he could get this in one play like he did last week. If the handicap is right and the Chiefs have to throw to move the ball (I expect this to be the case), Juju could have a surprisingly big game and easily clear his alts.

-115 365/MGM/ESPN, -123 DK, -125 CZR playable to -130 risk 0.57u to win 0.5u

For the most up-to-date picks, check out my Twitter, and subscribe to our Discord. This sheet, from Dan Rivera, tracks all my betting picks (and those from the rest of the betting staff). Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.

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