Week 12 NFL Player Prop Bets: Best Player Props to Bet from Connor Allen

We absolutely crushed in Week 11, going 7-2 for +5.89 units. We had some great, no-sweat wins, and a few lucky results as well.

Week 11 Plays

✅Noah Brown U41.5 rec yards

✅James Cook U59.5 rushing yards

✅JK Dobbins U14.5 carries

✅Jameson O41.5 & Alts

❌Cooper Rush U183.5 passing yards

✅Taysom Hill O18.5 receiving yards

✅Spears U 28.5 rushing yards

✅Lamar U46.5 rushing yards

❌Jaylen Warren U24.5 rushing yards

The easy wins: Noah Brown finished with 3 yards, James Cook averaged 2 yards per carry and finished close to 40 yards below his prop, Taysom Hill won in the first quarter, and Tyjae Spears finished with 0 rushing yards on 3 carries.

The sweaty wins: Jameson Williams was right around his regular prop of 41 before ripping a 64-yard touchdown near the beginning of the second half, hitting all of his alts as well. I was a bit worried they would just run the ball since they were up by so much but Dan Campbell kept his foot on the gas. Lamar Jackson won by half a yard despite him only carrying the ball 4 times all game.

The losses: Cooper Rush played terribly in the first quarter, throwing a pick and not completing many passes. He then got his act together and started slinging the ball as the Cowboys went into catch-up mode. If he threw another pick he probably would have been benched, but he actually played really well and finished with 350 yards. I was betting on Jaylen Warren not resuming his regular role, and while he wasn’t fully there, he still racked up a good amount of early down work but ceded passing down work to Najee, essentially the opposite of what I thought was going to happen.

All in all, the biggest reason I think I’m having a better year than previously is because I’m relying less on projections and looking at factors that are difficult to quantify in median projection. Sure, JK Dobbins could have gotten 15 carries last week, like he did the week before, and projections didn’t show a massive edge (13.5-14 in aggregate projections). Yet if Gus Edwards played more than anticipated, or the Chargers went pass heavy like they did in 2-of-3 past weeks, or they fell behind, it would be really difficult for Dobbins to hit 15+ carries. I’m not saying projections or even the line was necessarily wrong, it’s just difficult to put one number on something where multiple variables could significantly change the projection if one thing doesn't go according to plan. Especially when there is mostly downside with a lot of those variables like touch share, pass rate, game script, etc. Anyways, let’s keep the good times rolling, on to Week 12.

Week 12 NFL Player Prop Bets

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Mike Evans over 53.5 receiving yards (-115 DK)

Evans has missed the last few games with a hamstring injury but looks to be close to 100% coming out of the bye. He was a full participant in practice today and draws a great matchup against the Giants with zero target competition outside of Cade Otton.

Per Rich Hribar: "Evans has only run 58 routes since last season without Godwin on the field with Baker Mayfield at quarterback, but he has been targeted on 31% of those with 3.43 yards per route.

The Giants have allowed 9.6 yards per target to WR1 targets (28th)

They have allowed 13 receivers to post 54 yards this season in just 10 games.

Even if he is playing on a somewhat limited basis he could still easily go over this number. If we knew for sure he was at full health this would be lined close to 70 yards.

Risk to win 1 unit

Risk 0.25 units on 80+ receiving yards at DK +255 or CZRS +240)

Jameis Winston O208.5 passing yards (-120 DK)

Joint play with Stu and Noonan.

Jameis has 395 -> 235 -> 334 passing yards on 46 -> 46 -> 41 attempts as the Browns starter. They rank 6th in pass rate over expectation in his 3 starts. If we get anywhere near that volume this number will be way too low even in a tougher matchup.

The Steelers' defense is obviously good but ranks 6th/9th in dropback EPA/SR +12th in yards per attempt (6.88). Those are solid numbers but nothing to be terrified of. The Chargers rank better in all 3 metrics, and Jameis still finished with 235 passing yards.

In our opinion, the reason we are getting a discount is because everyone is assuming this will be a bad weather game. I trust Chris Allen a lot with weather reports, and this was his outlook: "Snow expected in OH Thursday but not enough to really accumulate. Chance for slight field degradation, but nothing to say passing rates will change. Wind from the WSW will be in line with the stadium (no cross breeze). At 12 mph max, no concern about passing rates here either. Kickers may be affected with mix of cold and rain/snow."

I think most passing props are getting knocked 15-20% here with weather concerns that will be alleviated by kickoff so we wanted to get this in early.

Risk 1.20 units to win 1 unit

Jerome Ford U20.5 rushing yards (-1145 DK)

Joint play with Stu originally at -114 at FD.

Ford saw his highest snap rate since Nick Chubb returned, with the Browns falling behind last week. The Steelers are only 4-point favorites her,e and the Browns HC admitted to managing Chubb's workload with a short turnaround. They have plenty of time to rest after this week, and I would expect Chubb to return to a 70-75% carry share, which would put Ford back in the 2-3 carry range. Even if he doesn't, this is a tougher matchup against the Steelers, who allow 3.97 yards per carry to opposing running backs, and Ford projects for 4-5 carries.

Beyond matchup and workload concerns, Jerome Ford has a career 4.1 YPC and virtually every time he gets a bigger opportunity, falls flat on his face.

Risk 1.14 units to win 1 unit

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This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks and those from the rest of the betting staff. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.

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