2024 NFL Futures Bets: Player Props, Win Totals & More
Football never sleeps. The offseason quickly turned into free agency, which then turned into the draft. We are through the early parts of the offseason but now have a chance to look at team and player futures bets. We have been profitable in futures bets every year since we started, and in my opinion, is much softer than in-season props.
I understand not wanting to tie up too much money for the entire season but if you have the bankroll for it, it’s worth the squeeze. Last offseason I wrote about how season-long player props have gone under at a 60%+ clip for 3 consecutive years, even if you aren't getting the best number.
A lot of the hit rate for under has to do with the natural amount of outs an under provides compared to overs. A player can go under their total if they miss games due to an injury, they aren’t as efficient as originally projected due to a variety of factors, or another key player’s injury/lack of effectiveness drags down the offense as a whole. This is factored into the market more each season, but there are still edges periodically. Our first play of the offseason is unsurprisingly an under.
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2024 NFL Futures Bets
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Exact AFC North Finish 1-2: Bengals-Browns (+1000 CZRS, +900 DK, MGM)
I am higher on the Bengals and Browns this season relative to market and a bit lower on the Ravens. The market has the Ravens as the division favorites but if that's wrong, there are some big payouts by looking down the board. I touched on this more on Move The Line but the Ravens' defense was a pretty big surprise last season. They finished 2nd in EPA/Play and 6th in success rate but lost Jadeveon Clowney, Patrick Queen, and Ronald Darby along with defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald. The loss of Macdonald is massive as he was one of the most versatile defensive coordinators in the league with coverages. The offense also lost multiple starting offensive linemen. I still expect the Ravens to be good, but expect their defense to fall more into the fringe top-10 range instead of being an elite unit which puts more pressure on Lamar and the offense. This opens the door for both Cleveland and Cincinnati who won 11 and 9 games without their starting quarterbacks for much of last season. The Bengals specifically have an incredibly easy schedule this season and are favored in 14-of-17 games. It's not like they need the help but they get to play against the Patriots, Commanders, Panthers, Giants, Raiders, Titans, and Broncos, 7 of the worst teams in the league.
Risk 0.1 units to win 1 unit
Jalen Hurts MVP: (16/1 MGM, 15/1 DK, 14/1 FD)
Since 2013 every MVP has been a QB and all but one team has won fewer than 12 games. Starting there can cross a lot of names off the list and hone in on on certain players. Jalen Hurts provides fantastic value in this market at 15/1. The Eagles got materially better as a team this offseason, drafting CBs Cooper DeJean and Quinyon Mitchell after signing Isaiah Rodgers to their secondary. Coaching wise they upgraded at both OC (Kellen Moore) and DC (Vic Fangio). Offensively, a lot is being made of Jason Kelce's retirement but they are still a top-3 offensive line with Cam Jurgens sliding in as his hand-picked (by Kelce) replacement. New OC Kellen Moore historically has played extremely fast and leveraged a ton of pre-snap motion. The Eagles were dead last in pre-snap motion last year and reportedly are already using that much more in training camp. With Saquon Barkley added to the backfield and the Eagles adding depth to their receiving room in the draft, the ceiling for this offense is extremely high. On top of this: They are favored in 13 games including 6 straight to start the season. They don't play a single team off a bye this season and end the season favored in five straight games. The Eagles will be squarely in play for the #1 seed in the NFC and Jalen Hurts will be squarely in the mix to win MVP.
Risk 0.2 units to win 3.2 units
Tony Pollard under 775.5 rushing yards ( -120 DK, MGM, fine to 725.5 at CZRS)
The Titans signed Pollard this offseason but have been talking about how they view Pollard and Tyjae Spears as 1A/1B:
#Titans HC Brian Callahan on Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears:
“They’re both gonna play quite a bit of football for us, and I don’t view either one of them as a starter or a backup. They’re both starting players to me.”
This staff has spent the entire offseason talking about how… pic.twitter.com/sHw93Qi9yA— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) July 23, 2024
They have also talked about Pollard's pass-catching a bunch which makes me think that we see a near-even split on early downs and maybe a lean toward Pollard on pass-catching downs. Their OL was upgraded but still isn't very good (We have them ranked 27th, ETR 24th) and Brian Callahan has mentioned they will want to pass the ball a ton.
They are underdogs in almost every game this season and should face minimal positive game script. We have Pollard projected for closer to 700 yards and that even may be too high if Spears plays a bigger role than anticipated, the OL isn't good, or they just get game-scripted out too quickly.
775 over a 17-game season translates to 45.5 yards per game. Considering the circumstances, that's awfully rich to consistently go over and play the entire season.
Risk 1.20 units to win 1 unit
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Malik Nabers most rookie receiving yards (+500 DK, +350 FD lowest)
We can't go a day at this point without hearing about Malik Nabers' training camp performances. He is reportedly getting fed and catching everything thrown his way. The 6th overall pick in this year draft was uber productive in college, performed well at the combine, and can get open at an extremely high rate against man coverage per Matt Harmon's reception perception. Brian Daboll is going to scheme Nabers open as much as possible even if Nabers doesn't need it. He really has massive, massive upside here even with questionable QB play.
Nabers' competition for leading all rookies in receiving yards once looked a lot stronger than it is currently. Marvin Harrison Jr is tough to poke too many holes in, but does have actual target competition with Trey Mcbride. Keon Coleman and Ladd Mcconkey have had uneven camps with injuries or playing time while Rome Odunze will be competing for targets with Keenan Allen and DJ Moore.
Based on the current situations, Nabers and MHJ should be priced much closer than the market currently has it.
Risk 0.2 units to win 1 unit
Zamir White under 800.5 rushing yards (-105 DK, Play to 775.5 at FD/CZRS)
The Raiders offensive line is a bottom-10 unit and their offense projects to be wildly inconsistent. With either Gardner Minshew or Aiden O’Connell at QB & Luke Getsy at OC, it’s tough to imagine them being good on a week-to-week basis even with weapons like Davante Adams and Brock Bowers.
While Zamir’s end-of-season workload and production was obviously impressive, a few things stand out about those games. They faced positive or neutral game script the entire time (won 3-of-4), the teams they played ranked 15th, 18th, 25th, and 27th in rushing success rate allowed. This all came on the back of a massive momentum shift with coach Antonio Pierce taking the reigns.
On top of all those factors, rookie RB Dylan Laube has drawn rave reviews at training camp. There has been a borderline deafening drumbeat about how well he is playing. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him be used in a pass-catching plus type of role that may be used frequently given potential Raiders game scripts.
It’s also worth mentioning that Zamir White has never been a workhorse for an entire season, ever. He never eclipsed 160 carries at Georgia and even in high school had one season with more than 175 carries (sophomore year in 2015). He has since torn his ACL twice. He is built like a workhorse but assuming he can handle 250+ carries is somewhat of a projection.
Risk 1.05 units to win 1 unit (Played on 8/5 by Connor Allen)
Rachaad White under 825.5 rushing yards (-112 FD, -115 DK, CZRS, MGM)
White is coming off a big sophomore season, playing in all 17 games and racking up 336 total touches. He converted his 272 carries into just 990 rushing yards and has now averaged 3.6 and 3.7 yards per carry in consecutive seasons.
The Bucs lost OC Dave Canales who turned around Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield in consecutive seasons. I have my doubts about this offense as a whole, especially with a new offensive coordinator.
The Bucs added to their backfield, drafting Bucky Irving in the middle rounds. Rachaad White mentioned last week that he is excited to have Irving make sure he doesn’t have to take 300+ touches again this season.
I would anticipate Rachaad is still the primary running back but it seems unlikely he even eclipses 250+ carries in another fully healthy season. Given his career inefficiency, the offensive downside and increased competition, there are multiple outs here for an under at this number.
Risk 1.12 units to win 1 unit (Played on 8/5 by Connor Allen)
Xavier Legette (CAR) under 700.5 receiving yards (-115 DK, -110 MGM, 650.5 at CZRS is fine)
Legette is a non-traditional late breakout who transitioned from QB to WR early in his college career. He didn't clear 160 receiving yards until his final season (redshirt senior). According to Matt Harmon's reception perception, which tracks a player's ability to get open, he struggled. He was just in the 19th percentile against man coverage, generally a big indicator of success at the NFL level. His late-breakout profile is brutal when we find comparisons there.
One-Year Wonders / Late Breakouts
Here's all Day 1-2 WRs in the PFF College-Era with >60 YPG in final season and <35 YPG prior to that pic.twitter.com/HjEqCFMeDd— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) March 7, 2024
He tested extremely well at the NFL Scouting Combine, and the Panthers seem to be enamored with his athleticism as they traded up for him late in the first round. Yet even if Legette winds up being a good player (I have my doubts), he finds himself in a bad situation. The Panthers brought in Dave Canales who has mentioned repeatedly the Panthers need to run the ball a ton. When talking about Legette, most of it was how the Panthers want to get the ball in his hands on jet sweeps and plays close to the line of scrimmage. That generally doesn't result in a lot of yards. Canales is also tasked with reviving Bryce Young after a miserable rookie season. On top of the questionable schematics, he has reasonable target competition. The Panthers retained Adam Thielen and brought in Diontae Johnson, meaning Legette will likely be the third option in a low-volume, inefficient passing game.
I thought this number would come in around 550 and would play it down to 600. Our projection guru, John Paulsen, told me we will have him projected closer to 350. The floor here is really low for Legette and there is a very narrow path to a ceiling outcome.
Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit (Played on 5/8 by Connor Allen and Ryan Noonan)
Keon Coleman Under 725.5 receiving yards (-110 at DK, fine at 700.5 elsewhere)
The Bills lost Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis this offseason, leaving a lot of uncertainty at the wide receiver position for the Buffalo Bills. The market is assuming he essentially will play a near full-time role but i'm not sure that's the case, especially to start the season. They signed Curtis Samuel, retained Khalil Shakir, signed MVS to play the Gabe Davis field-stretching role, and still have Dalton Kincaid who will likely be their top pass-catcher and flashed immense upside as a rookie. James Cook also excels out of the backfield as a pass-catcher.
The Bills also figure to run much more. With Joe Brady they had a -3.3% PROE (55.2% pass rate), a sizable decrease from Ken Dorsey who had a 5.1% PROE and 65% pass rate!
Coleman ran a 4.64 at the combine, a relative disappointment even at his size with an 8.0 RAS. He was taken with the first pick in the second round but if you remember, the Bills traded down not once, but twice (27 to 32 to 33) before taking Coleman. According to Matt Harmon's reception perception charting, Coleman wasin just the 20th percentile at getting open against man coverage, 19th percentile vs press, and just 59th percentile vs zone and would really struggle on the outside as an X receiver.
Beyond Coleman not being a lock to be an every-down player given their roster and his profile, Coachspeak Index has done a fantastic job of compiling comments over the past few months from Joe Brady (OC) and Brandon Beane about Keon coming along slowly. Local beat reporters have also suggested that Coleman does not look ready to be an every-down player:
timeline of GM/OC comments on Keon Coleman since he was drafted:
GM Brandon Beane (April 27): “We’ll bring him along. He’ll have to learn the offense. We’ll see how many spots, can he just learn the X, can he learn multiple spots, that may not be right away, but he’ll help us a…— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) July 1, 2024
We have him projected for a little less than 700 yards but the floor here is much, much lower.
Risk 1.10 units to win 1 unit
Jerry Jeudy UNDER 750.5 Receiving yards (-115 at CZRS, fine at 725.5 at DK, play to 700 at FD)
Jeudy enters a unique situation in Cleveland. Deshaun Watson has not even approached the play we saw from him in Houston and there aren't many reasons to think that changes in his third season back. Last year he ranked 26th of 49 qualifying Qbs in EPA+ CPOE composite and the year prior he ranked 40th out of 53.
Beyond his lackluster play, the Browns were really run-heavy in the 5 games he started and completed. In those games, the Browns ranked 28th in pass rate overall and 29th in pass rate over expectation. Watson averaged just 222 passing yards per game. On top of what will likely be below average-to-average QB play and a run-heavy offense, Jeudy has fairly stiff target competition with Amari Cooper, David Njoku, and to some extent Elijah Moore and Cedric Tillman.
Even if we take out some real situational questions about his environment, Jerry Jeudy was just traded for a 5th and 6th round pick after four relatively dissapointing seasons. He hasn't lived up to the hype that saw him drafted in the mid first-round. The floor is incredibly low if he isn't playing well as the Browns have invested very little into him. He also hasn't played a full season since his rookie year due to a variety of ailments which adds another element that plays into season-long unders, which have blindly hit at 57% over the last 3 years for wide receiver receiving yards. We have 558 yard projected for Jeudy.
Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit (Played on 7/9 by Connor Allen)
Las Vegas Raiders Under 7 wins (+100 at CZRS, fine at 6.5 at + money)
This roster still has a ton of holes and to be honest I'm not buying the late-season Antonio Pierce steam we saw last season. He went 5-4 during his tenure as interim HC. They beat the Giants, the Jets, the Chargers in the Brandon Staley farewell game, and the Chiefs in the game with the biggest 3-week net rest disadvantage of the season for them (proved to be basically the only statistically relevant metric for net rest by deep value bettor) and then the Broncos. I wasn't impressed and their roster/makeup right now is ripe for disappointment.
They have major question marks at QB, OL, LB, RB, and CB. One of their projected outside corners is Jakorian Bennett who graded out as the 124th of 127 corners last season per PFF while Nate Hobbs is their best corner but isn't a good cover guy. Their OL is still a mishmash of below-average players at LG, RG and RT. It was a big need entering the draft and wasn't addressed. They added Christian Wilkins, making their DL a strength but every other unit has major question marks.
On top of serious roster questions, their OC is now Luke Getsy, one of the worst OC's in the league. I don't blame him fully for the disaster and misuse of Justin Fields in Chicago but the schemes and plays he drew up were horrendous. Receivers were running into the same parts of the field stacked on top of one another multiple times per game. I don't know how much clearer it could be that he is a horrible OC and is now paired with Gardner Minshew or Aiden O Connell plus a questionable OL. Rumors have already started about a potential Davante Adams trade, another potential downside scenario for this team that lead to the rest of their season spiraling.
The Raiders are favored in 1 game this season against CAR at home and that's it. I like to fade teams that have multiple outs of failure and minimal paths to success. The Raiders have a tough strength of schedule, and multiple questionable units on both sides.
Risk 1 unit to win 1 unit
Risk 0.1 units to win 1.2 units on Raiders worst record
