Week 6 NFL Player Props: Best Player Props to Bet from Ryan Noonan
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Between the weekly discussions on Move The Line and my weekly Lookahead Lines article, I'm constantly railing on our ability, or inability, to consistently beat a market as liquid as NFL sides. But player props? Player props are an entirely different story.
There are similarities that prop betting has with traditional markets, like sides and totals. First, the best way to consistently put yourself in a position to realize positive expected value (+EV) long-term is to beat the closing line number. Secondly, this is more difficult with sides than props, but you need better numbers than the market. With props, that means having the best projections. Projections that give you an edge against the field. Well, this is 4for4. We have the best projections, full stop.
I'm not here to promise you a list of winners every week like some old-school 800-number tout, but I have a pretty solid track record of forecasting player performance, and I believe our team's process is sound, and we can exploit this market every week of the season.
If you're waiting for this article to get some of my favorite tackle and assist bets of the week, you really need to get into the subscriber Discord. Even more than standard offensive props, these markets move quickly.
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Week 6 NFL Player Prop Bets
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Azeez Al-Shaair (TEN) Over 8.5 Tackles + assists (-125, Bet365)
Azeez Al-Shaair got us 15 combined tackles and assists last week on a 7.5 line. He now has 15, 9, 8, and 10 in his past four games. Linebackers versus the Ravens are averaging 22.2 TAs per game this season; that's the most in the league.
The Browns were the only team that failed to get a massive tackle performance from their linebackers against the Ravens, but that's because none of them played more than 75%-80% of the snaps in a given week. Al-Shaair has missed a total of 6 snaps this season; he's the every down anchor for this Titans defense. Here's how opposing linebackers have performed against the Ravens:
Week 1: Denzel Perryman 11
Week 2: Logan Wilson 10 (Germaine Pratt 9)
Week 3: Zaire Franklin 15
Week 4: Anthony Walker 8
Week 5: Cole Holcomb 9
My projection is similar to this number (9.2), but I love the matchup and think 9+ is in the cards here.
Risk: 1.3 units to win 1 unit on Bet365
Brandon Stephens (BAL) Over 2.5 Solo Tackles (-135, Bet365)
Outside of the matchup against the Browns, where Dorian Thompson Robinson started at quarterback, Brandon Stephens has topped this in every game this season(8, 3, 10, & 4). He's faced 41 targets this season, the third-most in the league.
The Ravens' run defense has been outstanding, and I think the Titans will struggle to get much going on the ground here, forcing them into a pass-centric approach. Stephens has 33 TAs on the season, with 27 of those as solos. He's averaging 13.19 snaps per solo, and with a conservative projection of 14 snaps per solo, Stephens is projecting for 4.24 in this matchup.
I'm showing a 38.45% edge and a 79.5% hit rate on this play. I prefer the solo angle, but I'm okay with over 4.5 TAs at +120.
Risk: 1.35 units to win 1 unit on Bet365
Kevin Byard (TEN) Over 5.5 Tackles + assists (-147, Caesars)
Kevin Byard was awesome last week and continues to play a high rate of box snaps for Tennessee. He has eight or more TAs in 4 of 5 games this season, and Baltimore's propensity to work over the middle of the field bodes well for Byard.
Similar to linebackers, as noted in the Al-Shaair play, opposing safeties have feasted against the Ravens this season:
Week 1: Jalen Pitre got hurt, but MJ Stewart got to 5 on just 56% of snaps
Week 2: Dax Hill 11
Week 3: Julian Blackmon 12
Week 4: Juan Thornhill 7
Week 5: Minkah Fitzpatrick 9
Playable to 6.5 at +100
Risk: 1.47 units to win 1 unit on Caesars
T.J. Edwards (CHI) Over 5.5 Solo Tackles +100 (DraftKings)
Last week's mess against Washington, where they threw it nearly 60 straight times, is the only instance where Edwards didn't reach six solos this season. (9, 10, 12, 7, 5). I can't envision that the new-look Justin Jefferson-less Vikings are going to come out and throw it on 85% of the snaps against the Bears.
I like Over 8.5 TAs for Edwards, but I'm showing more value on the solo play, and the Chicago scorekeeper has not been generous in dolling out assists. We have limited 2023 data, but in 2022, games in Chicago averaged 7.8 fewer assists per game than the league-average contest.
I have Edwards projected for 10.32 TAs and 7.67 solos in this spot.
Risk: 1 unit to win 1 unit on DraftKings
Jevon Holland (MIA) Over 6.5 Tackles + assists (-115, Bet365)
Last week's blowout against the Giants was the first time Holland fell short of 7 TAs all season, and we're getting a discount now because of it. He's been posted at 7.5 for the past three weeks, so this 6.5 is a great value based on his heavy in-the-box role in Vic Fangio's defense. Alt-tackle totals are in play for Holland against a Panthers team that's seen a TA rate from opposing safeties that's 5.5% above the league average.
I have Holland projected for 7.83 TAs and 5.1 solo tackles.
Risk: 1.13 units to win 1 unit on Bet365
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I will continue to update this column throughout the week as I release more bets.
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