SharpClarke's Week 3 NFL Bets

Sep 18, 2023

Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

Week 2 is in the books, and we saw a little bit of normalcy returning with some of the top teams bouncing back. But as the season progresses, it becomes more and more important to keep track of all the things going on in a hectic league. After watching every snap of every game, these are the bets I like for Week 3. I released each of these on the date listed in the 4for4 Discord. For access, you'll need a 4for4 Betting Subscription. Good luck if you follow along!

NFL Week 3 Bets

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CLE -3 (-110) v. TEN (FanDuel, 9.20.23)*

*Available -110 across the board and -103 at Pinnacle.

Perhaps I am underreacting to the mess we saw on Monday night, but the adjustment down from the opening spread here is overdone by my numbers. This might be the biggest mismatch in the trenches we've seen all season when the Titans have the ball. Their uncreative offense and lack of real playmakers downfield (with all due respect to the player DeAndre Hopkins was once in his career) give me very little hope the Titans will be able to do much of anything on offense. Similar to how the Steelers kept giving the ball back to Cleveland, I expect the Titans to give the Browns plenty of opportunities on offense in this game. I retain low expectations for Deshaun Watson but ultimately believe the Browns' offensive line can do better against the Titans' ferocious front than the Titans' offensive line can do against the Browns.

Losing Nick Chubb hurts, especially when the Browns need to win by more than a field goal here. That means they'll actually have to get in the endzone and that won't be easy. But for all of Watson's misses on Monday night, there were several close calls on the sidelines that indicated the offense can be competent if things break the right way. The Titans' secondary health might determine whether the Browns can succeed in the passing game, but I ultimately make this spread much higher and see value at the flat 3. Once again, I'm trusting my numbers here despite a feeling that the Titans' coaching and culture is far superior to the Browns'.

Risk: 2.2% on FanDuel to win 2%.

TB +6.5 (-105) v. PHI (FanDuel, 9.18.23)*

*Available -110 at Circa, Caesars, BetMGM. Will grade at -110.

Last week we saw the Eagles' offensive struggles continue against a Vikings' defense that lacks talent but makes up for it in scheme. In particular, they pressure the quarterback and force quick decisions. The Bucs' defense should do the same here with Jalen Hurts, just like they did with Justin Fields. Now, I'm not saying Hurts is as bad as Fields (obviously). But some aspects of what they do well and poorly overlap, which means we might see a similarly underwhelming performance from Hurts relative to expectation. The Bucs also have excellent linebackers, which is essential for combatting a quarterback like Hurts.

The Eagles' defense, already banged up, has now lost Avone Maddox. Outside of a couple of monsters on the defensive line, the Eagles' defense is officially struggling. They did not look good against Mac Jones and the Patriots, and Sunday night showed us this had more to do with the Eagles than the Patriots. Then Kirk Cousins carved them up without two starting offensive linemen (and even a third offensive lineman that went down in-game). Baker Mayfield has been skirting by with some bad throws, but overall he is playing with confidence and getting the ball to his excellent wide receivers. I expect that to continue here, in a big home game on Monday night. It will be very difficult for the Eagles to win by margin here on the road.

Risk: 2.1% (or 2.2%) at FanDuel to win 2%.

ATL +4.5 (-110) @ DET (Caesars, 9.17.23)
ATL +3.5 (-110) @ DET (Circa, 9.20.23)

As we progress into the season, my bets will almost always just be "because my model tells me to bet it." That's the case here. My numbers project the Lions to be favored by less than 3 at home here, and I would play this to +3.5. I was very impressed with Desmond Ridder and the Falcons' offense against Green Bay. Bijan Robinson is a true difference-maker and Ridder showed his excellent pocket awareness and mobility, getting comfortable in and out of the pocket. The Lions' offense also looked very good against Seattle, but the defense put up very little fight against a banged-up Seattle offense, missing its two starting tackles. I was quick to adjust the Lions' defense up after Week 1, but after their performance in Week 2 (and some notable injuries), I'm adjusting back a little bit.

The Lions' offense at home is typically very strong, and I wouldn't say I expect the Falcons to shut them down. But the Falcons' defense has legitimately improved, with key additions in the off-season. Jared Goff is still Jared Goff, and he is liable for a few bad plays a game. In what should be a game with fewer possessions and both offenses moving the ball well, those mistakes will make it very difficult to cover a big number. Ridder has shown he can deliver with his team playing from behind, delivering the second fourth-quarter comeback of his career last week in just six games. He also was driving down 3 points against New Orleans in his first-ever game when Drake London fumbled a catch. I'll take the points here with a 2-0 team that is somehow still underrated.

9.20.23 Addition: Adding 1% to my exposure here at ATL +3.5 to make this a max play. Amon-Ra St. Brown showed up on the injury report with a toe injury, which could limit his effectiveness even if he does play. This is shaping up to be an ideal spot for an underrated Falcons team.

Risk: 2.2% on Caesars to win 2%. (ATL +4.5)

Risk: 1.1% on Circa to win 1%. (ATL +3.5)

BUF -6.5 (-110) @ WAS (FanDuel, 9.17.23)

I don't often bet a game before watching both sides' previous week's games, but when I think the market is more likely to move in the direction I like, I will lock in a bet early so I have options later in the week. That's the case here. The Bills re-established themselves in a dominant win against Las Vegas in which they exerted their will on both sides of the ball. Given how Josh Allen and the Bills have struggled with the Jets' defense, I am willing to look past a rough game one and re-insert them as the top team in the league. Washington is riding a hot 2-0 start, but I'm not convinced that either of their opponents (the Cardinals and Broncos) are any good. Sam Howell had some incredible highlight-reel throws but still holds the ball too long trying to make a play. The best way to attack the Bills' defense is to be decisive. It will take Howell's best game to hang with Buffalo here, and we know that the Bills are the type of team to run up the score in an easy win. The travel spot is not too bad for Buffalo, coming off a home game and just traveling down the coast a bit. It's a big number to lay with a road favorite, but the gap between these two teams is still very large (pending my grading of the Broncos-Commanders game). For now, I will lock in the bet on the Bills.

Risk: 2.2% on FanDuel to win 2%.

CAR +6 (-110) @ SEA (BetMGM, 9.19.23)*

*Also available at Circa, Bookmaker, DraftKings

I liked this at CAR +6.5 but wanted to see if we might be able to see a +7 and buy it up. Unfortunately, another group bet this at CAR +6.5 about 10 minutes ago so we lost that opportunity. I will never release a bet into a currently-moving line, but now that it has settled there are still some +6 left on the board that I want to take. I have been impressed with the Panthers' defense this season and their offense should have a much easier time here where they might finally be able to establish a ground game. That should make things easier for Bryce Young. Geno Smith looked fantastic in both the first half against the Rams and basically all game against the Lions, but the Rams' defense is terrible and the Lions suffered multiple key injuries in that game. I expect a little bit of "back to earth" Geno Smith in this game, especially with the team still relying on back-up tackles.

It can be ugly to bet on a bad rookie quarterback, but a matchup against the Seahawks' defense is probably just what the doctor ordered.

Risk: 2.2% on BetMGM to win 2%.

IND +8 (-110) @ BAL (Caesars, 9.22.23)
IND ML (+340) @ BAL (FanDuel, 9.22.23)

Prices for this one vary. Can get IND +8 -110 at Circa and IND +8.5 -115 at FanDuel too, which is fairly similar. The Ravens will once again be down two offensive linemen, plus Odell Beckham, Jr. On defense, they will miss Odafe Oweh in addition to Marcus Williams and Marlon Humphrey. Unfortunately, Quentin Nelson is questionable for Indianapolis and they will be without Ryan Kelly. No matter, I still like the Colts here.

It's time to hand it to Shane Steichen. Each season coordinators and coaches change teams and sometimes they make a material difference. The Giants last year saw a massive boost with Brian Daboll and I think we are seeing the same thing here in Indianapolis. He knows how to craft a game plan and use his options effectively. He also worked with Gardner Minshew in Philadelphia so I am not as concerned about the drop-off from Anthony Richardson. Minshew is a bit of a wildcard, so that's why I sprinkled on the moneyline as well. This could go bottoms-up, but the Colts could also win outright here.

My caveat on rating the Ravens is this: if you only look at last week's game, this spread is correct. But I also am factoring in Week 1 against Houston, which brings them down. If it was just growing pains with a new offense, then I am probably wrong here. And that's a valid way of looking at it. But I still do not fully trust this new offense and am willing to lose a little more learning the hard way.

Risk: 1.65% on Caesars to win 1.5% (IND +8).

Risk: 0.3% on FanDuel to win 1.02% (IND ML).

LAR @ CIN Over 43 (-110) (DraftKings, 9.19.23)*

*Also available at Betonline, playable to Over 43.5 available everywhere else

This one is a little dicey, I get it. We don't know if Joe Burrow will play. Based on the reports, it sounds like pure speculation that Burrow might miss this game (and more), but based on the price action in this matchup it appears very likely Burrow will miss. But honestly, with how well the Rams are playing and how poorly the Bengals are playing, it could also just be bettors who want the Rams in this game regardless, knowing they can get a good number if Burrow misses. I have no inside information. What I do have is a building belief that the Rams' offense is materially better than we anticipated and the Bengals' defense is materially worse. The Bengals could not get any pressure on Lamar Jackson despite the Ravens missing two offensive linemen, and Matthew Stafford was dealing against a very good 49ers' defense. Watching both Vonn Bell and Jessie Bates make key plays for their new teams raises some real concerns about the Bengals.

On the other side of the ball, if Burrow does play, this number is excellent. He said he would have gone back in the game last week if the Bengals got the ball back. I understand sometimes cooler heads can prevail off the field, but this is a desperate Bengals team that might as well be throwing in the towel if Burrow is missing until October. I think his chances of playing are higher than the market currently reflects, and I'm comfortable with this number even if they play a backup quarterback. They have excellent weapons and a strong offensive line, and the Rams' defense is bad outside of Aaron Donald. With the full recognition that I could get negative CLV here (tail at your own risk), I'm locking it in.

Risk: 1.1% on DraftKings to win 1%.

TEN @ CLE Under 41 (-110) (DraftKings, 9.19.23)*

*Also available at FanDuel, playable to Under 40.5 -110 available at BetMGM, Betonline, Bookmaker

The handicap on this one is pretty straightforward. This could be the matchup of the top two defensive fronts in football. No yards on either side of the ball will come easy. On top of that, the Titans have run a fairly conservative game plan and lack explosiveness (despite a couple of big plays against the Chargers). The Browns are dealing with the fallout of Nick Chubb's injury, meaning more reliance on Deshaun Watson. Watson has been erratic and inconsistent and seems to be not on the same page with his receivers. I expect both offenses to struggle for any traction here. Playing totals this early also implicates potential weather developments, but in this case that can only be a good thing. Cleveland has had some bad weather games historically so if we get one here, with extra wind, that only helps the handicap. This can always go over if we get multiple defensive touchdowns as we did on Monday night, but I'd happily bet against that at any number over 40.

Risk: 1.1% on DraftKings to win 1%.

6-Point Teaser: NO +8 @ GB, MIA -0.5 v. DEN (-120) (DraftKings, 9.21.23)*

*Both these lines are uniform at every book I have access to; however, make sure you get -120 or better on the teaser.

For the Saints' leg, I think the wrong team might be favored here. If Christian Watson and both questionable linemen play, the spread might be right. But I doubt Aaron Jones plays, who has been essential to this offense with Jordan Love. Matt LaFleur schemes up an excellent offense but this Saints' defense will be the toughest test they've faced. I doubt they have the horses to just pour points on them and bury the Saints. Getting over the touchdown makes this a high-percentage traditional Wong teaser leg.

The Dolphins' leg is not a traditional Wong teaser, but I make the game higher than 7 so for me It does cover the key numbers. Getting the MIA -1 and MIA -2 results is also more important than it has been historically because games do land on those numbers as coaches become more analytically driven. If Jaylen Waddle, Terron Armstead, and Jaelen Phillips all miss this game, it won't be overly comfortable. However, the Dolphins have a much better passing game than the Broncos, especially as I anticipate Russell Wilson will struggle against Vic Fangio. And the Miami sun will beat down on the Broncos' sideline this game, wearing them out as the afternoon progresses. I'll take the Dolphins in crunch time if things go sideways here.

Risk: 1.2% on DraftKings to win 1%.