Divisional Round Player Props: Best Player Props to Bet from Connor Allen
The Wild Card Round was an interesting one. I had two unders in the Bills-Steelers game prior to it being moved. After Covid, sportsbooks tightened up their terms and conditions, which now state that even if a game changes dates, as long as it is played within a week, all bets stand. That was extremely unfortunate, as the originally scheduled game would have seen probably the worst weather in NFL history. It was a blizzard with 25-30 MPH winds, gusts up to 40 MPH, and temperatures in the single-digits. They then moved the game to the day after, where they had relatively mild weather and just had to deal with the cold. Luckily, both James Cook over 14.5 carries and Stefon Diggs under 59.5 receiving yards came through, but it was an unnecessary sweat.
I was 4-2 on props heading into the final game, where the Bucs thoroughly dominated the Eagles. That bad of a thrashing was not really on my radar as a possibility. That led to 18 carries for Rachaad White, which busted our under there. Dallas Goedert also had two catches called back by penalty and then was injured on his last catch, which lost us over 44.5 receiving yards. We got in early, the market moved over 50 receiving yards by close, and we still lost. My co-worker Ryan Noonan coined “LCLV” or “Losing Closing Line Value,” where you get CLV and still find a way to lose. It’s mostly a joke, and CLV for props doesn’t really mean a whole lot since it’s largely steam, and any jabroni with a following can move a line, but still hurts nonetheless.
Noonan and I have combined to win over 20 units on unique player props this season and will continue firing through the Super Bowl. You can get access for the cheapest price yet at just $19.99. Even people betting small units (no unit shaming here), should be able to profit. All of our plays can be seen in our discord where subscribers can get push notifications. All plays are widely available at the time of release and come with an in-depth breakdown. On to the Divisional Round...
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Divisional Round Player Props
Jayden Reed over 3.5 receptions (-135 Bet365)
Bet Jayden Reed over 3.5 receptions at Bet365 here! This is widely available with Bet365 still posting a -135. It's more juice than we normally like to bet into, but I think it’s a pretty sizeable discount from what it should be. Reed had 4+ receptions in 8 consecutive games prior to last week where the Packers went run-heavy and used a season-high of 12 personnel. Reed is the primary slot guy so he didn’t see much run with less 11 personnel.
It’s very, very unlikely the Packers, as 9.5-point dogs, are able to run the ball as well or as frequently on the Niners as they did. With more pass volume out of 11 and a potentially negative game script, there are lots of outs for an over here, even in a “tough” matchup. The Packers could also opt to throw the ball quickly to negate the 49ers pressure.
I normally don't like to release things this early, but with multiple outs and a price that will likely climb into the -160 or 4.5 range, I wanted to fire it now.
Risk 1.35 units to win 1 unit
David Montgomery under 14.5 carries (-125 DK, MGM, CZRS)
There are multiple outs for this to go under but the primary one is the likely gameplan. This is because the Bucs are a massive pass funnel. I expect the Lions to react accordingly just like they did in their earlier matchup. The Lions leaned into the pass earlier in the year, with a +13% pass rate over expectation against the Bucs when these teams met last. Montgomery was injured midway through the second quarter and Jahmyr Gibbs didn't play at all but even before Montgomery was injured, they still dropped back 12 times to just 7 run plays. The Lions only finished with 20 total rushing attempts in a game they never trailed in and even had a two-score lead in the third quarter.
I fully expect Jahmyr Gibbs to out-snap Montgomery here as he did since both were healthy from Week 10 on. This is largely because I expect them to pass the ball a ton which generally calls for more Gibbs. The counterargument would be that it will also require more pass pro since the Bucs blitz a lot, but the Lions trusted Gibbs a lot more down the stretch. A good example is the Vikings who, like Tampa, blitz a lot as well and play a ton of zone. Gibbs out-snapped him in both contests while Montgomery only got 43% and 49% of the carries including just 10 carries to Gibbs' 13 the last time they played the Vikings even in a 30-20 win. Since these teams last met you could argue the Bucs are an even bigger pass funnel, with Vita Vea back after missing Week 14, the Bucs rank 1st in DVOA and 2nd in rushing success rate. Even if the Lions do try and run it, I don't expect them to stick with it as they likely won't be very efficient with it.
Looking at Montgomery's usage, from Week 10 on, he has fewer than 15 carries in 6-of-10 games with the only outliers mainly being against run funnels or on the back of insane play volume from the Lions.
Risk 1.25 units to win 1 unit
Zay Flowers under 4.5 receptions (-122 at FanDuel)
Flowers has been awesome down the stretch but his splits with and without Mark Andrews are pretty stark. With Andrews he has a 22% target share (down from 28%) and an 18.6% target per route run (down from 22.6%). On top of this there will likely be a reasonable amount of wind that could impact passing.
The more I handicap this game, the more I think Baltimore may struggle more than expected offensively with how Houston confused the Browns offense last week in the second half with post-snap adjustments. The Texans have also deployed two-high safety looks on over 60% of their defensive snaps. Against two-high looks Zay Flowers only has a 15% target share and a 0.15 target per route run rate.
Risk 1.22 units to win 1 unit
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