Week 16 NFL Player Props: Best Player Props to Bet from Connor Allen
We have now stacked two positive weeks in a row and are back towards grinding out another solid season! Despite the worst betting month of my career, we are still up on the season. Last week was good, but it truly could have been even better. Zay Jones busted our under of 42.5 after Mossing some poor corner. He had four catches for 23 yards outside of that one 36-yard incredible catch. It honestly may have been the best of his career. Derek Carr busted our under of 215 by playing his most efficient game to date without Chris Olave or Michael Thomas. That was the 2023 season in a nutshell. When everything is lining up towards a player performing well or poorly, they have somehow found a way to do the opposite. Despite an uber-efficient day, we still only lost by 3 yards.
With that being said, we did have two very good beats this week, with DK Metcalf going off the final drive of the game and Alex Erickson catching a last-minute touchdown catch to win his prop of 12.5 receiving yards. After some run-pure and tough losses, I’m excited to handicap some props for Week 16!
Week 16 NFL Player Prop Bets
Jaylen Warren over 66.5 rushing and receiving yards (-114 at FD, -115 DK, CZRS)
Warren is set up for success this week. He had a season-high 55% of the backfield touches last week and now draws the Bengals, who are allowing over 4.5 yards per carry, are 27th in explosive run rate allowed, and 28th in rushing success rate allowed. They were bad on a play-to-play basis BEFORE losing run-stuffing DT DJ Reader. This is a massive deal, as they have allowed over 5.5 yards per carry on the 109 snaps without Reader so far this season (H/T Rich Hribar). With Mason Rudolph at QB, I expect them to lean on the run in neutral or positive game scripts. The issue is, Rudolph presents a level of variance that makes me more interested in the combined yardage. If they fall behind and are forced to throw it more, a rushing and receiving ticket is much, much stronger.
Warren is coming off a season-high in route participation (83%) and, on the year, has a 28% target per route run rate. If they fall behind, Warren will get all of the work as the pass-catcher. I would also expect multiple designed receptions for Warren as a solid base. He has three designed targets each of the last three weeks. This sets a solid pass-catching floor, even in positive game scripts. We played this at 68.5 and I would play it up to 70.5.
Risk 1.14 units to win 1 unit
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Terry Mclaurin under 48.5 receiving yards (-115 DK, CZRS, Builder)
Mclaurin popped off last week on the back of two Jacoby Brissett bombs. Before that, things seemed to be crumbling around him with games of 0, 50, 43, and 33 receiving yards in the weeks prior. Now, he draws one of the toughest matchups in the league against the Jets. Mclaurin runs nearly 90% of his routes from the outside, meaning he draws by far the toughest matchup. Howell was also benched last week and may be more conservative here, with Brissett looking over his shoulder.
I thought this would come in lower than this and think there is a good bit of value here, given the instability at QB and extremely tough matchup.
Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit
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