FanDuel & DraftKings NFL DFS Week 14 GPP Breakdown

Dec 09, 2023

Danielle Parhizkaran-USA TODAY Sports

In this space each week will be the top stacks, contrarian plays, and strategies to attack GPPs on both FanDuel and DraftKings. The backbone of our player pool is value, as highlighted by 4for4’s proprietary value metric, which goes beyond simple point-per-dollar projections. To be successful in GPPs, however, it’s essential to be unique and that can be accomplished by combining knowledge from 4for4’s suite of DFS tools including ownership projections, leverage scores, correlation, and stack values.

Even with all of these resources at our disposal, adjusting for game type is essential. For example, someone playing the Millionaire Maker shouldn’t have the same approach as someone entering a $300 single-entry contest with 150 entries. For nuanced explanations on game selection and lineup construction, be sure to check out 4for4’s DFS Strategy Hub and DFS MVP game theory segments.

Note: Many of 4for4’s value plays should be in your GPP player pool but may not necessarily be written about below. Most starters on teams with high implied totals are worthy of being rostered but players in this breakdown are those to be overweight on.

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More Week 14 DFS Strategy: Top Values and Cash Plays | WR/CB Matchups | Ownership Projections | Leverage Scores

Popular Games to Target

Bills @ Chiefs (-1.5); O/U 48.5

Buffalo enters this game fifth in both points and yards per drive, offering the ceiling necessary to roster Josh Allen ($8,300 DraftKings/$9,000 FanDuel) at cost. The Chiefs defense, albeit returning a handful of starters, has also leaked the eighth-highest rate (14.3%) of explosive passes out of their bye.

Whether it’s with Allen or as a standalone piece, I want to be overweight on James Cook ($6,000 DK/$6,600 FD) in tourneys following Joe Brady’s change in philosophy, targeting the backfield at the fourth-highest rate in the league (24.4%) without Ken Dorsey. Stefon Diggs ($8,800 DK/$8,700 FD) recorded 2-69, 3-7, and 10-148-1 in his last three games against the Chiefs but, much like winning Allen lineups against the Eagles, arguably takes away from optimal roster construction given his salary. Spending down for Gabe Davis ($5,300 DK/$6,800 FD) to create cheap Bills doubles is preferred.