2023 Breakout Receiver Model: Week 12

Nov 22, 2023
2023 Breakout Receiver Model: Week 12

Welcome to the Week 12 edition of the Breakout Receiver Model. In what is becoming an every-week occurrence, the model predicted more than a dozen breakouts across the NFL in Week 11. And this week, we can use the model to predict not just breakouts for the main slate, but for the exciting three-game Thanksgiving slate as well. We’ve devoted a special section to breakout candidates playing on the Thursday slates for those looking for a DFS sweat while they gobble down some turkey.

About the Breakout Receiver Model

The 4for4 data science team, in conjunction with our award-winning projections expert John Paulsen, created the current iteration receiver "buy-low" model in order to use machine learning to identify under-performing wide receivers and tight ends on the verge of a breakout performance. The model utilizes historical data and recent player performance to help determine players who have received opportunity that is typically more valuable than recent production would indicate. This particular model's features include air yards and routes-run data as a means of determining opportunity. It also utilizes a proprietary efficiency metric that looks back at the past 10 weeks of individual player performance, all to better help predict the likelihood of a bounce-back in a player's future production. The model most heavily weights the last three weeks of data.

Model Predicted Breakouts - Week 11

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