Week 11 NFL Player Props: Best Player Props to Bet from Connor Allen
Week 10 Review: The last two weeks have not been pretty but it's not the end of the world. We are still up 14.46 units on the season and are just running into some negative variance. Breece Hall and the Jets couldn’t find any room on the ground, which busted our over and ladders. DK Metcalf fell two yards short of his 100+ ladder, and while we were still profitable, it could have been a much bigger hit. Austin Ekeler busted our longest rush under 12.5 yards after he got a random option pitch on the edge and flanked the run defense for 17 yards. It was a weird week but I am very ready to get after it in Week 11.
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Week 11 Player Prop Bets
Joe Burrow (CIN) under 258.5 passing yards (-115 Bet365)
This is also widely available. The Ravens' defense has been stellar this season, ranking 2nd in EPA per dropback, 3rd in passing success rate allowed, and the lowest yards per pass attempt allowed in the league at 4.7.
They have only allowed one quarterback to throw for more than 250 passing yards this season, and it was Jared Goff and the Lions who racked up 58 dropbacks due to immense negative game script.
The Ravens held Burrow to 220 passing yards in their first meeting, but since then, a few things have changed. Burrow is healthier, but Tee Higgins is likely out. Mike Macdonald took over as DC last season and has played the Bengals extremely passively in the four prior games, including minimal blitzing and tons of safety help. Burrow has averaged just 5.8 yards per attempt against the Ravens in those games.
In a tough matchup, likely without one of his top wideouts, I like this under a good bit. It probably won't get there, but I would play it down to 250.
Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit
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Keaton Mitchell (BAL) longest rush over 13.5 yards (-120 Bet365)
After just 3 carries last week, Harbaugh talked about how that was a mistake and how Mitchell needs to be more involved this week. He even went as far as to say they will make sure he is in the gameplan. Mitchell has been insanely explosive this season, with runs of 60, 40, and 39 on just 12 total carries. He also had a run for 11 yards, two for 9 yards, and one for 8. These runs came against Seattle and Cleveland, two run defenses that had largely been stellar this season.
Now Mitchell draws the Bengals, who are allowing the most explosive runs on the season and will be without Sam Hubbard, one of their DL (not like he mattered a ton anyway). The Bengals allowed five runs of 10-or-more yards to Devin Singletary and the TEXANS last week. A team that had been one of the worst running teams in the NFL nearly all season. Mitchell's yardage prop is a bit high for my liking, but even if Harbaugh doesn't increase his workload a ton, he can hit this longest rush on limited work.
Risk 1.20 units to win 1 unit
Gabe Davis under 39.5 receiving yards (-110 Bet365)
Gabe Davis has been boom or bust this season but this is a really tough spot for him. He draws the Jets who play stingy defense against outside wideouts where Gabe Davis lines up more than 80% of the time. In three games against the Jets with Sauce and DJ Reed Davis has lines of 2-33, 2-32, and 2-31. On top of that I think his outlook is actually worse in this game. With the Bills still moving around Diggs plus the emergence of both Kincaid and Khalil Shakir over the middle, Davis may just be used as a clear-out guy for the majority of the game.
Risk 1.14 units to win 1 unit
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Justin Herbert under 263.5 passing yards (-115 DK, MGM, CZRS)
There are multiple factors working for us here. Keenan Allen said he will play but is banged up. The Chargers may run more than usual due to a much better matchup on the ground against the Packers. The Packers' run defense hasn’t played well this season, ranking 25th in run defense EPA and 27th in explosive run rate allowed. Meanwhile, their pass D ranks top-10 in both of those same metrics. Jaire Alexander may not play but he did practice today in a limited fashion. Regardless, Kellen Moore is a coach who will scheme his game plan to exploit the opponent's weaknesses.
The Packers also play Cover-3 on nearly half of their snaps, which Justin Herbert has struggled against. He has only completed 62.2% of his passes for 7.0 yards per attempt against that this season. We have a touch over 240 passing yards projected here. Play to 255.
Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit
Jakobi Meyers under 38.5 receiving yards (-110 at B365)
The entire passing game has suffered as of late but Meyers may have taken the biggest hit. Over the past three weeks, he has 21, 38, and 19 receiving yards on just 8 total targets. Last week we got a preview of what their offense will likely look like going forward which is a lot of Josh Jacobs and designed throws to Davante Adams.
On paper Miami's overall metrics look bad but the reality is they were injured for most of the season. They finally got back Jalen Ramsey and Xavien Howard before the bye and played the Chiefs well, limiting Patrick Mahomes to 185 yards. None of the Chiefs wideouts even cleared 35 yards. Now they have a much easier matchup against AOC and the Raiders' run-heavy offense.
Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit
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