2023 Breakout Receiver Model: Week 11

Nov 15, 2023
2023 Breakout Receiver Model: Week 11

The 4for4 breakout receiver model returns for Week 11, after yet another stellar week where the model predicted ten or more “hits” using historical data. As we get further into the season, we start to see some model drift due to the diverging paths of the NFL ‘haves’ vs. ‘have-nots’. The teams making a playoff push start to utilize their stars a little bit more, while teams headed toward a long offseason start to make personnel decisions that the model can’t always predict on its own. That’s where this article comes in. Throughout the season, we’ll interpret the model results in order to guide us in finding the next set of breakout candidates. Let’s dig into the data.

About the Breakout Receiver Model

The 4for4 data science team, in conjunction with our award-winning projections expert John Paulsen, created the current iteration receiver "buy-low" model in order to use machine learning to identify under-performing wide receivers and tight ends on the verge of a breakout performance. The model utilizes historical data and recent player performance to help determine players who have received opportunity that is typically more valuable than recent production would indicate. This particular model's features include air yards and routes-run data as a means of determining opportunity. It also utilizes a proprietary efficiency metric that looks back at the past 10 weeks of individual player performance, all to better help predict the likelihood of a bounce-back in a player's future production. The model most heavily weights the last three weeks of data.

Model Predicted Breakouts - Week 10

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