NBA Player Prop Bets: Darius Garland Will Sting The Hornets
After a successful Monday slate in the 4for4 Discord, we’re presented with another healthy eight-game slate on Tuesday, chock full of MVP candidates, role players stepping into larger roles, and injury implications. My three favorite player props for the slate are outlined below.
Regarding the process behind the plays, the suite of tools that 4for4 offers are second-to-none. I use the NBA Splits Tool to break down injury impacts and lineup changes and the NBA Prop Stat Explorer to look at historical data for how the player performs relative to their prop and compare it to our in-house projection. Using these alongside the Player Prop Finder to shop for the best line, 4for4 makes betting on NBA player props a stress-free and fun process.
Now, let’s put the tools to use and get to today’s top player props.
Today’s NBA Player Prop Bets (March 14, 2023)
Darius Garland Over 24.5 Points (-120 at DraftKings)
The absence of Donovan Mitchell is a big one, as it’ll lead to Darius Garland stepping into the alpha role that we saw him in last season, only this time, in a dream matchup.
In nine games without Mitchell this season, Garland has seen his usage rate spike from 26.3% to 30.4%, his shot volume jump from 15.6 attempts per game to 19.3, and his points per game jump from 21.3 to 26.2 points per game. Despite this being a lopsided matchup, the Cavs are also only 5.5-point favorites, given their absences.
This should lead to a full workload for Garland against a Charlotte defense that ranks 21st in defensive rating and sixth in pace, creating an incredibly betting-friendly game environment.
Risk: 1.20 units on DraftKings to win 1 unit.
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Jakob Poeltl Over 13.5 Points (+100 at DraftKings)
As crazy as it may sound, it’s starting to become a theme for teams to attack the reigning two-time MVP, Nikola Jokic. His lack of defensive prowess (and effort) has been on full display, as teams have been scheming their offenses around targeting him with his individual matchup.
Let’s take a look back at the last week or so and identify players who have excelled in individual matchups against Nikola Jokic:
- 3/7: Jakob Poeltl, 18 points (9-13 shooting)
- 3/8: Nikola Vucevic, 25 points (9-17 shooting)
- 3/10: Sandro Mamukelashvili, 11 points (4-5 shooting, 12 minutes)
- Mamukelashvili did not see the floor until the 4Q, in which he immediately attacked Jokic on defense repeatedly
- 3/12: Nic Claxton, 20 points (8-9 shooting)
*Insert GIF* - Not great, Bob!
With two incredibly capable defenders on the wing and backcourt in Aaron Gordon and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, teams have defaulted to attacking the reigning MVP, and it’s paying off.
I expect much of the same strategy (for the second time) for Toronto on Tuesday, especially given Poeltl’s role in Toronto, averaging 14.9 points in 28.4 minutes per game in 12 games as a Raptor.
At even odds, I’ll take the over here all day, given the trend we’re watching develop.
Risk: 1 unit on DraftKings to win 1 unit.
DraftKings $1,000 Deposit Bonus
Killian Hayes To Record a Double-Double (+270 at FanDuel)
This feels like a “too good to be true” spot after Hayes has double-doubled in consecutive games, and the odds are even more favorable than yesterday, but it’s incredibly difficult to pass up.
Over the last two games with the depleted Pistons team, Hayes has averaged a gaudy 22 potential assists per game, converting 12 per game. On top of that, he’s posted a 25.5% usage rate as he operates as the number-one option on offense.
He hasn’t been entirely efficient, but when you just need 10 points, that doesn’t matter as much on his current volume. With Marvin Bagley, Bojan Bogdanovic, and Jaden Ivey out with Cory Joseph questionable, Hayes is sure to retain his massive role for a third consecutive game, making this value simply too good to pass up, regardless of matchup.
Risk: 1 unit on FanDuel to win 2.7 units.
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