NBA Player Prop Bets: Throw a Dart On Lu Dort
Tuesday slates are typically rather tame around the NBA, but that’s certainly not the case tonight. With a 10-game slate loaded with injury implications, lines should be shifting all day and value will open up across the board. My three favorite player props for Tuesday’s NBA slate are outlined below.
Regarding the process behind the plays, the suite of tools 4for4 offers are second-to-none. I use the NBA Splits Tool to break down injury impacts and lineup changes and the NBA Prop Stat Explorer to look at historical data for how the player performs relative to their prop and compare it to our in-house projection. Using these alongside the Player Prop Finder to shop for the best line, 4for4 makes betting on NBA player props a stress-free and fun process.
Now, let’s put the tools to use and get to today’s top player props.
Today’s NBA Player Prop Bets (February 28, 2023)
Luguentz Dort 3+ 3-Pointers Made (+165 at FanDuel)
Efficiency is not the name of the game when it comes to Luguentz Dort, but volume certainly is. Dort had a rather abysmal month of February as he dealt with injury, shooting 40% from the field and only 28.1% from deep. While the field goal percentage is roughly in line with his season average (40.6%), the 28.1% mark from deep is 6.8% below his season average (34.9%).
While his efficiency has been down, the absence of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander paves a path for more volume. Per our splits tool, Dort has seen a 6.4% increase in usage rate in games where Gilgeous-Alexander is out (25.9%) compared to when he’s active (19.5%), while also taking 15.5 shots per game compared to 11.3. Over the last two games without their star point guard, this has held true, as Dort has taken 34 total shots, 16 of them coming from deep.
He’s only converted 5-of-16 threes in these two games, but a 4-9 showing last game against the same opponent as he’ll see tonight (Sacramento) instills confidence. With his three-point line opening at 1.5 and juiced to nearly -200 to the over, it makes too much sense to take the massive value on FanDuel’s alt line of 3+ threes made given his volume and expected regression to the mean.
With the third-highest implied total on the slate (235.5 points), this game will feature more than enough possessions and volume for Dort to have his fair shot at the over here.
Risk: 1 unit on FanDuel to win 1.65 units.
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