NBA Player Prop Bets: It's Ladder Season
We’ve made it to the final week of the NBA regular season, and for those that are familiar with this time of year, I wish you the best of luck. For those unfamiliar, fasten your seatbelts and enjoy the wild ride of late-season NBA betting. There are few things that are more rewarding and simultaneously tilting, so we’ll do everything we can to guide you down the right path. My three favorite player props for Tuesday’s 13-game mega-slate are outlined below.
Regarding the process behind the plays, the suite of tools that 4for4 offers are second-to-none. I use the NBA Splits Tool to break down injury impacts and lineup changes and the NBA Prop Stat Explorer to look at historical data for how the player performs relative to their prop and compare it to our in-house projection. Using these alongside the Player Prop Finder to shop for the best line, 4for4 makes betting on NBA player props a stress-free and fun process.
Now, let’s put the tools to use and get to today’s top player props.
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Today’s NBA Player Prop Bets (April 4, 2023)
Austin Reaves Over 4.5 Assists (-104 at FanDuel)
The NBA’s newest golden child has seen a massive change in role as the season has gone along, and has quickly established himself as (arguably) one of the most important role players in basketball. Regardless of where you stand on the Austin Reaves debate, his assist market is oozing with value on Tuesday.
Over his last 10 games, we’ve seen Reaves top 4.5 assists in eight games, averaging 6.2 assists on 9.7 potential assists per game, trailing only D’Angelo Russell and LeBron James in the potential assist category on the team. His 32.5 minutes per game over that span trails only Anthony Davis on the team, as he’s gotta ample opportunities to produce, regardless of who is active on the team.
The Lakers come into Tuesday’s game as 9.5-point favorites against the Jazz, who are missing Jordan Clarkson, Walker Kessler, and Lauri Markkanen. This should allow the Lakers to get whatever they want on the offensive end and also instill a high level of blowout risk, which would only increase both Reaves’ minutes ceiling but also the potential to run the second unit by himself for more time than usual. Given the form he finds himself in as part of his newfound role, and the fact that there’s room for even more production in this game environment, I am all over the Austin Reaves assist number on Tuesday.
Risk: 1.04 units on FanDuel to win 1 unit.
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BONUS BETS
Given the game environment catering to a potential blowout and the minutes ceiling we’ve seen out of Reaves lately, his assists check in as my favorite ladder bet on the slate. I am laddering his assists (in addition to 1.04u on the o4.5) as outlined below.
To Record 6+ Assists (+240 at FanDuel)
Risk: 0.5 units on FanDuel to win 1.2 units.
To Record 8+ Assists (+750 at FanDuel)
Risk: 0.25 units on FanDuel to win 1.875 units.
Brandon Ingram Over 36.5 Points + Assists (-113 at FanDuel)
Very few players in the league come into Tuesday’s slate in better form than Brandon Ingram. Over his last 10 games, Ingram has averaged 29.5 points and 8.0 assists, shooting 52.4% from the field and 43.3% from deep.
He’s led the Pelicans with a 32.2% usage rate and 37.7% assist percentage over that span, as his facilitation has only increased as his recent run has gone on, averaging 12.8 potential assists per game over his last five games (15th in the entire NBA over that span).
He draws a picture-perfect matchup against the Kings on Tuesday, who rank 25th overall in defensive rating (116.0) and 11th in pace (101.42), creating an elite production environment in an ultra-important game for the Pelicans, who find themselves sitting in the midst of the play-in race.
Given the fact that this is a prop Ingram could hit on points alone in his current role, it feels like a no-brainer in this game environment on Tuesday.
Risk: 1.13 units on FanDuel to win 1 unit.
Gabe Vincent Over 8.5 Points (-108 at FanDuel)
The third and final player I’m targeting on this slate comes completely out of left field, and I do not blame you for raising your eyebrows.
Vincent has been a staple in the Miami rotation for the majority of the season, given the struggles of Kyle Lowry, and we should see much of the same on Tuesday, especially if Lowry (who’s listed as questionable) is ruled out.
He’s a player who certainly isn’t shy of shooting when on the court, it’s just a matter of minutes. Having seen 25 or more minutes in 35 games this season, Vincent has averaged 11.9 points on 40.9% shooting (10 attempts per game) and 34.9% from deep in those games this season.
On top of this, he’s played in 22 games without Lowry active this season, averaging 31.0 minutes and 11.4 points per game in this scenario, illustrating why Lowry’s status is so pivotal to this prop.
The silver lining here is the matchup. Even if Lowry suits up (which feels unlikely given the 13-point spread in favor of Miami), the Heat should have no problem with the Pistons, which could afford Vincent some extra garbage-time minutes when the primary players get some rest.
At 8.5 points, we don’t need much to break right to hit this prop. Projecting for 9.6 points with a 5.2% edge in our NBA Player Prop Tool, Vincent is another confident prop to hit on Tuesday.
Risk: 1.08 units on FanDuel to win 1 unit.
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