Best Week 7 NFL Bets: SharpClarke's NFL Betting Tracker

The dogs were barking in Week 6, as several teams with high expectations collapsed against inferior competition. Defensive schemes have begun to take center stage in my handicapping process, as we are seeing defenses dictate what offenses can and can't do. The Giants' blitz got to Lamar Jackson, who struggled without any elite outside weapons. The Jets exploited the Packers' vulnerability in the run game. And the Steelers frustrated Tom Brady by inviting the Bucs to run and taking away the big plays. These types of angles have been more successful than handicapping based on the quality of each team, so I will be looking to lean into these as the season progresses. All my Week 7 picks can be found here, with a detailed analysis for each one. For access, join up, and be sure to use promo code SharpClarke to save 10% off a 4for4 Betting Subscription!

Week 7 NFL Betting Tracker

[subscribe_betting]

DEN -9.5 (+285) v. NYJ (FanDuel, 10.22.22)

The Jets' defense has kept them afloat for two straight weeks while the offense struggled against two average defenses. But those games came against an unprepared Skylar Thompson and a dysfunctional Packers' offense. Perhaps their defense is legitimate, or perhaps they are a young defense that will have some ups and downs. Here, regardless of who is playing quarterback for Denver, the Broncos can capitalize if the Jets have a down game on defense. They can run the ball and have weapons to make plays. If Denver gets it going on offense, the Jets simply lack the offensive firepower to keep up against a very strong Broncos' defense. The weather will make this cover difficult, but my range of outcomes for this game involves Denver winning by 10 more than 25% of the time, making this a value bet.

Risk: 0.4% on FanDuel to win 1.14%.

SF +2.5 (-112) v. KC (Circa CO, 10.21.22)

My effectiveness ratings have the 49ers as a better team overall than the Chiefs this season. Patrick Mahomes can win any game in any way, but has his worst performances against defenses that can exert pressure without blitzing. The 49ers do that better than any team in the league. With several key players returning for this matchup, I project the 49ers to cause the Chiefs' offense to at least slow down. You can't really stop them completely, but without the explosiveness of Tyreek Hill, they are still trying to find their ideal identity. They should figure it out by the time the playoffs roll around, but I think patience is requried.

In the meantime, if the 49ers can succeed on offense, they can win this game at home. They match up perfectly against a defense that is at its best against offenses that rely on the talent of the quarterback. Steve Spagnuolo is great at taking away a team's primary option and forcing opponents to adapt. His exotic pressure schemes also force quick decisions. Unfortunately, the 49ers with Trent Williams are a team that can win up front and use aggressiveness against the defense by creating side-to-side action to create space. It's a scheme that works. I expect Christian McCaffery to get involved in the red zone, but they don't need him. They have enough weapons.

Finally, I much prefer the +2.5 than the moneyline here. If it comes down to an exchange of field goals in a close game, I don't want my money riding on Jimmy Garropolo over Mahomes. This could be a 1- or 2-point game, and we have the more meaningful side of it with this bet.

Risk: 2.24% on Circa CO to win 2%.

PIT @ MIA Over 44.5 Points (-110) (BetMGM, 10.21.22)

With confirmation we are going to get a healthy Tua Tagovailoa back, I am once again excited about this Dolphins offense. Last week, the Bucs insisted on running the ball into the Steelers' defensive line when the secondary was banged up (and not playing that great to begin with). That game plan made no sense and it cost them. Tom Brady also threw a lot of footballs into the dirt. But Miami's offense is explosive. They will attack downfield and get the ball to both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle in space. They should play aggressively and I expect a lot of big plays. Even without Tagovailoa, their offense looked okay. And he is a material upgrade at this point, particularly in terms of scheme. The Steelers' biggest weakness is speed, and the Dolphins have that in droves.

But I don't love that they are laying a whole touchdown, especially if Kenny Pickett plays for the Steelers. They continue to play without Byron Jones opposite Xavien Howard, and that situation became direr when Nick Needham went down with a torn Achilles in last week's game. Prior to the injury, the Vikings had just 13 yards on four drives. But without Needham, Miami's lack of secondary depth showed and the Vikings ended up winning the game. They'll be without Needham and Jones again here, and the Steelers have the receivers to take advantage. If Pickett plays, he has been responding very well to opposing teams' blitzes because he makes fast decisions and throws accurately and quickly. I expect another pass-heavy game plan from them, knowing they cannot run the ball consistently. If it's Mitch Trubisky under center, I don't love the bet as much, but I want to get ahead of any line movement if Pickett is ruled in. The number here does not reflect the quality of these offenses, and weather should not be a factor.

Risk: 1.65% on BetMGM to win 1.5%.

HOU +7 (-107) @ LV (Circa CO, 10.20.22)

The Raiders struggle to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks and their best cornerback, Nate Hobbs, quietly joined the IR over the bye week. That's great news for Davis Mills, who is a very situation-dependent quarterback. Dameon Pierce also should have a solid game here against a run defense whose metrics are inflated by the opponents they have faced. I expect Houston to move the ball fairly effectively, and whether or not they can keep up with the Raiders will depend on their red zone efficiency. With injury tags on Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow, there's also a chance they can keep up on defense. Besides, their defensive scheme excels at taking away big plays, and Carr has been overly reliant on big plays this season.

But the most attractive aspect of this bet is the number. Mills has shown time and again that he can put up points in comeback mode, and the Raiders struggle to bury opponents. They even lost outright to the Cardinals after building a 20-0 lead. The matchup favors Mills, and the game flow does as well. In today's parity-laden NFL, the only time you should lay more than a touchdown with a non-elite team is when you have a strong matchup advantage. Here, the only matchup advantages favor Houston so I will happily take the points.

Risk: 2.14% on Circa CO to win 2%.

ARI Team Total Under 22.5 (+100) v. NO (DraftKings, 10.19.22)

I have two leans on this game that are not strong enough individually to bet, but can be combined to create a perceived edge. I lean Saints and I lean under, so I will play the Cardinals' team total to leverage both angles.

First, the Saints have been a better team than the Cardinals this season. They are battling heavy injuries, but they have been hampered by injuries for weeks. Despite that, they played the Bengals to the final whistle, arguably should have beaten the Vikings, and beat the Seahawks. Their numbers have not dropped off significantly because they have versatility on offense. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have really struggled for consistency and identity. Kyler Murray has shown no signs that he is improving as a quarterback and processor, and the short week means it's unlikely this changes quickly, even with DeAndre Hopkins back in the mix.

Second, the injuries in this game are heavily weighted to the offense. The Saints will be without Andrus Peat, Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry, and Adam Trautman. The Cardinals will be without two of their best offensive linemen in Rodney Hudson and Justin Pugh. This should be an ugly game in which both offenses struggle for consistency. It's a good matchup for the Cardinals' defense, who project to fluster Andy Dalton with heavy blitz packages. The only real deep threat is Chris Olave. And it's a good matchup for the Saints' defense, who have been burned on big plays by quarterbacks effectively passing out of the pocket in recent weeks, but should be able to pressure Murray with all the offensive line injuries. The Cardinals also will struggle to run the ball outside of Murray's scrambling, especially if James Conner cannot play through injury on a short week.

I expect the Saints to win this game, but could also see them losing a close, low-scoring battle to the tune of 20-16 Cardinals.

Risk: 1.5% on DraftKings to win 1.5%.

CIN -6 (-110) vs. ATL (Caesars, 10.18.22)
CIN Team Total Over 27 Points (-110) vs. ATL (FanDuel, 10.18.22)
CIN -6.5 (-110) vs. ATL (Caesars, 10.22.22)

The Bengals' offense has struggled so far this season and I have not been comfortable backing them yet. But that ends this week. Several things favor them in this matchup. The new pieces on the offensive line have had enough time to gel. Joe Burrow's surgery before the season may have slowed the development down but that no longer is an excuse. They have also been playing a lot of snaps without Tee Higgins, who is healthy now. They put up 30 points on the Saints, which was their best offensive showing of the season. The Falcons are an ideal matchup because they do not get pressure. Last year, the Falcons had 18 sacks on the entire season, and they have kept that up this year with only eight sacks in their first six games. They have the fewest sacks per game and the lowest pressure rate in the NFL. The one thing they had going for them—good cornerback play—is also in question with Casey Hayward heading to the IR and A.J. Terrell banged up as well. The Bengals can score at will when you do not disrupt Burrow's timing, so this should be an easy game for Cincinnati.

However, the Falcons are plucky. They continue to impress, including two backdoor covers against the Rams and Bucs. It's a little scary laying 6 points against them, especially given a couple of defensive injuries for Cincinnati. Splitting the bet between the spread and the team total provides some cushion in case this game turns into a shootout, but hopefully, the Bengals can dominate and we can cash both bets. The Falcons have had a lot of positive variance in those two games, both of which were true blowouts. I think the odds are higher that type of variance ends.

10.22.22 Addition: Adding a small half-unit to the Bengals at -6.5. The injury report has settled and I think this will be a strong performance from Cincinnati.

Risk: 1.1% on Caesars to win 1%. (CIN -6)

Risk: 1.1% on FanDuel to win 1%. (CIN TT O 27)

Risk: 0.55% on Caesars to win 0.5%. (CIN -6.5)

DET +7 (-109) @ DAL (Circa CO, 10.18.22)

I am playing a limited bet (1%) on Detroit for now because I have been burned in recent weeks by breaking injury news, and there is a lot to sort out for this game. I am assuming Dak Prescott, Amon-Ra St. Brown, D'Andre Swift, and John Cominsky are all playing. If that's the case, I like the bet. We have seen quarterbacks rush back from hand injuries before and it typically doesn't go well (most recently, when Russell Wilson was shut out against the Packers last year). But there is also an outside chance Prescott is not ready. If Cooper Rush starts, I still like the bet, and will probably get some value on the closing line. But I can't play a full 2% without knowing the status of the key Lions players.

Fully healthy, the Lions are still a team that plays aggressively to the final whistle and has the offensive make-up to capitalize against softer defensive fronts late in games. The Cowboys have not been a strong offense this season, so even against a weak Lions defense, I don't expect easy touchdowns on every drive. If Swift and St. Brown both play, it will be very tough for the Cowboys to get a big enough lead that the Lions cannot get within 7 late in the game. The Lions' offensive line should be able to at least partially neutralize the Cowboys' pass rush. The Eagles did a good job against them until Lane Johnson got hurt in that game, and the Lions have had two weeks to prepare. The delayed pass rush from the Cowboys will give Goff just enough time to complete his short passes to complement the effective ground game. I'm not giving up on the Lions after their embarrassing loss to the Patriots, which was somewhat predictable. Goff always struggles against the smartest defensive co-ordinators in outdoor games. This will be in a more favorable environment against a simpler defensive scheme with more weapons. Back the Lions, when healthy, as big underdogs. That's a winning strategy.

Risk: 1.09% on Circa CO to win 1%.

NE -7.5 (-110) vs. CHI (Caesars, 10.18.22)

If you read my article discussing Justin Fields, this bet will not come as a surprise. He struggles to read defenses, both before and after the snap. He holds the ball too long and really struggles to hit timing routes with any kind of consistency. It's not even a problem of accuracy; it's a problem of decision-making and confidence. It doesn't help that his receiving weapons are subpar and the scheme leads him to those unfavorable situations. Against defenses that play passive, that's not a huge problem. His athleticism and play-making ability can overcome that. But Bill Belichick is a genius when it comes to stifling bad or inexperienced quarterbacks. I expect him to absolutely capitalize against Fields here and take away the run game, forcing Fields to the air. That means one-way action for New England.

I don't even care who is playing quarterback for New England. Bailey Zappe may have even more upside than Mac Jones, and this would be a good game to get him more experience and comfort. If it is Jones, then that's fine, too. Either way, the Patriots will lean on the ground game and play-action passing to create a few splash plays. They should make plays on defense, special teams, and offense. When things click for New England against an inferior team, Belichick does not take his foot off the gas. We saw it in the 29-0 win against Detroit, the 38-15 win against Cleveland, as well as last year in two wins against the Jets by a combined score of 79-19, a 45-7 win over Cleveland, a 25-0 win over Atlanta, a 36-13 win against Tennessee, and a 50-10 beat down of the Jags. The spread almost doesn't matter here under 10, because the Patriots should win with ease.

10.22.22 Addition: Adding half a unit of exposure to this position as it is a high-confidence bet.

Risk: 2.75% on Caesars to win 2.5%.

GB @ WAS Over 41 (DraftKings, 10.17.22)

With Taylor Heinicke set to start for Washington, we are likely to see some points. Due to a (justified) lack of trust in Carson Wentz, the Commanders have opted for a vanilla approach in recent weeks. It has made for some ugly football. But Henicke is a gunslinger. He takes chances and makes big plays and mistakes. His mobility will open things up and his familiarity with the offense allows them to take a step forward in creativity, as opposed to the general backup script of becoming more conservative. The Packers have been vulnerable on the ground as well, so I expect the Commanders to play complementary football and move the ball. I also expect him to have at least one costly turnover, creating a short field or quick score for the Packers. That only helps this game clear the total.

On the other side of the ball, the Packers are due for a get-right game. Their offense looked ugly against the Jets, primarily because (1) the Jets' defensive line got to Rodgers and bottled up the run game, and (2) Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner and the cornerbacks locked up the Packers' receivers. The Packers are reliant on the run game at this point and the short-area passing game. The Jets are giving up only 3.9 yards per carry on the season, whereas Washington is giving up 4.7. In addition, the Jets have been able to exert pressure without blitzing, whereas Washington is currently relying on blitzes. Aaron Rodgers is a smart quarterback, and I still have confidence he can figure this situation out. I would not have confidence they can cover the spread here, but they should be able to put up 24 or 27 points against a defense that can be exploited (particularly without William Jackson III at cornerback). And I think Washington can easily do the rest.

Risk: 1.65% on DraftKings to win 1.5%.

JAC -2 (-110) vs. NYG (DraftKings, 10.16.22)
JAC -3 (-110) vs. NYG (BetMGM, 10.20.22)
JAC -9 (+210) vs. NYG (BetMGM, 10.20.22)
JAC -13 (+310) vs. NYG (BetMGM, 10.20.22)

I'm betting this game at open because the line is not giving the Jaguars enough credit (or it is giving the Giants too much credit). I expect it to move to 3, and at that point, we can decide what to do with the position. This is a matchup between two teams with large discrepancies between their record and my effectiveness ratings. The Jaguars have graded as an average team but continue to make key mistakes in high-leverage situations to lose games. The Giants are the opposite. They struggle to move the ball with any consistency and give up easy first downs. But they make plays in key moments and find a way to win. Brian Daboll deserves an enormous amount of credit for the Giants' surprising start, but I have to lean into what I see on the field. And I see the Jaguars as a better team.

On top of that, matchups favor the Jaguars. On offense, Trevor Lawrence plays well when his receivers are able to get into space and evades quick pressure with his mobility and vision. The Giants love to blitz, which will help his receivers get open. And with a consistently low sack-per-pressure ratio, Lawrence should be able to handle it okay and move the chains. In addition, the Jaguars have been very effective running the ball and the Giants have not been stout on the ground. They should be able to play complementary football. On defense, the Jaguars have been decent against the run, which the Giants have relied on for success. They play aggressively and force quarterbacks into quick decisions. Matt Ryan handled this perfectly because he knows how to read defenses and get the ball out quickly. But I'm not sure Daniel Jones has that ability.

It can be tough betting on a team that has been a letdown in several spots against a team that is outperforming. But I think this number makes it worthwhile.

10.20.22 Additions: I am laddering this game with bets on the spread and alternate spreads for Jacksonville. These teams are being materially mispriced in the market and the chance of a big Jaguars' win is larger than normal. The types of events sustaining the Giants' start do not tend to replicate, and I think there is a good chance the regression happens in this game.

10.22.22 Addition: Adding one more half-unit on JAC -3 on Caesars. This is a high-confidence play.

Risk: 1.1% on DraftKings to win 1%. (JAC -2)

Risk: 0.55% on BetMGM to win 0.5% and 0.55% on Caesars to win 0.55%. (JAC -3)

Risk: 0.5% on BetMGM to win 1.05%. (JAC -9)

Risk: 0.4% on BetMGM to win 1.23%. (JAC -13)

For the most up-to-date picks check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord. This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my bets (and those from the rest of the betting staff) on the year. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.

This article is intended for entertainment purposes and adult users only. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem.