Divisional Round NFL Player Props: Best Player Props to Bet From Connor Allen

Nothing feels better than winning a player prop bet on the first drive—exactly what happened this past weekend with Khalil Shakir. With Isaiah McKenzie out, sportsbooks floated Shakir’s prop at 15.5 receiving yards. We knew both Shakir and veteran Cole Beasley would likely fill in for McKenzie but Shakir is so explosive the number was simply too low. He finished with three receptions for 51 yards on five targets, with a 17-yard reception on the second play of the game. He nearly finished with 100 yards as a long pass that was initially ruled a completion was overturned. McKenzie looks like he will return in the Divisional Round but props like Shakir’s that we played 45 minutes before kick-off are why it's important to join the Discord and get notifications of all of our last-minute plays!

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Divisional Round Player Prop Bets

Miles Sanders Over 65.5 Rushing Yards (-114 at Fanduel)

This is 66.5 everywhere else and playable to 70.

Miles Sanders has already gashed the Giants' run defense once this season for 144 yards on 17 carries, but came into their last meeting banged up. The week prior to their Week 18 matchup he was wearing a knee brace and was on the injury report. They had two weeks off and Sanders is now completely off the injury report.

The Eagles also get back difference-maker Lane Johnson on the offensive line. The matchup couldn't be better with the Giants ranking dead last in run defense DVOA, 31st in EPA vs the run, and 31st in explosive run rates. On top of this, the Giants are also bottom-three at defending the run on early downs while the Eagles' offense is one of the best.

It also wouldn't be surprising to see the Eagles lean on the run even more than normal here with Hurts still dealing with an SC joint sprain and the matchup.

Risk: 1.14 units to win 1 unit at FanDuel.

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JuJu Smith-Schuster Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-114 at FanDuel)

This is playable to 57.5 but most shops have it at 55.5.

The Jaguars have been horrible against slot receivers as Ryan Noonan pointed out last week and JuJu Smith-Schuster leads the team in snaps from the slot. The Jaguars also play zone coverage on 70% of their snaps this season, one of the highest rates in the league. Smith-Schuster ranks 12th in yards per route run versus zone coverage.

If you are worried about his last outing against the Jaguars, he only played 24 snaps (38% snap rate) and ran 14 routes, but still saw four targets and recorded 33 yards. Last time against Jacksonville, we saw Marques Valdes-Scantling go for 60 yards on a season-high 51% slot rate with Smith-Schuster playing less than half the normal amount. With a full complement of snaps, Smith-Schuster is in a smash spot.

Risk: 1.14 units to win 1 unit at FanDuel.

Joe Mixon Under 50.5 Rushing Yards (-114 at FanDuel)

This is playable to 47.5 at DraftKings, Caesars, and BetMGM. It can be played down to 45.

The Bengals are missing their three best offensive linemen (Jonah Williams, Alex Cappa, and La'el Collins), and now head to Buffalo to face the Bills, who rank third in rush defense DVOA. On top of this, the Bills are 5-point favorites and could force the Bengals into negative game script.

Joe Mixon has gone under this number in roughly 50% of his games as is but given the matchup and offensive line injuries it may be tough sledding. He has averaged just 3.4 yards per carry since his O-Line started getting injured against New England and the injuries are only piling up.

Here's how Mixon has fared in games against top-10 run defenses, per DVOA (rank):

Baltimore (7th)

• 11 carries for 39 rushing yards (3.5 YPC)
• 11 carries for 27 rushing yards (2.5 YPC)
• 14 carries for 78 rushing yards (5.6 YPC)

New England (9th)

• 16 carries for 65 rushing yards (4.1 YPC)

Pittsburgh (6th)

• 7 carries for 20 rushing yards (2.9 YPC)
• 27 carries for 82 rushing yards (3.0 YPC)

NY Jets (10th)

• 12 carries for 24 rushing yards (2 YPC)

Miami (4th)

• 24 carries for 61 rushing yards (2.5 YPC)

Dallas (5th)

• 19 carries for 57 rushing yards (3.0 YPC)

As you can see, he has gotten over this number in tough matchups before but it takes immense volume as he has averaged three yards per carry or less in 6-of-9 matchups against top-10 run defenses. Given the Bills' explosive offense and potential to put the Bengals behind combined with the O-Line issues, the under is a strong look for me.

Risk: 1.14 units to win 1 unit at FanDuel.

I will update this column throughout the week with more bets.

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