UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall Betting Preview & Best Bets

The UFC returns to London for the first time since 2019 with a talent-stacked fight card featuring many hometown favorites. The matchmakers brought us some razor-thin matchups with plenty of action to look forward to. We’ll see plenty of young fighters with some question marks and something to prove. Let's make some picks, break down the biggest fights, and answer some of those questions.

UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall Best Bets

Tom Aspinall (-116, FanDuel) Over Alexander Volkov

This week’s five-round Main Event features two ranked heavyweights on different paths. Alexander Volkov (34-9) uses his 6-foot-7 frame and 80-inch reach to his advantage very well, packs solid power behind his punches, and has fought just about everyone there is to fight. He’s not the world-beater he was in his prime and the most recent wins haven’t come against very tough competition. The holes in his game are becoming more obvious and those openings are something his opponent can find. Tom Aspinall (11-2) being comparable to Volkov’s size is an advantage on its own. He has a very fluid motion, good Brazilian jiu-jitsu, and isn’t afraid to chase the takedowns and get to work on the ground.

Tom Aspinall averages 2.73 takedowns per 15 minutes and will look to get it there if he feels a disadvantage in striking. The biggest question mark for Aspinall is we haven’t seen him in deep waters. What I mean by this is his fights typically end pretty quickly and we haven’t seen how he rebounds from losing a round or getting gassed deep into a fight. There are fights where you feel this is someone’s time to make a jump and that’s Aspinall here. You can’t knock the added motivation of fighting in front of your home crowd and only being perhaps a couple of wins away from a title shot. We will either answer the question of if he can go five rounds or he will have his hand raised early again.

Risk: 2.32 units on FanDuel to win 2 units. (Playable up to -140)

Ilia Topuria to Win by Submission (+135, FanDuel)

Two fighters with heavy upside face-off here but one thing stuck out to me immediately; striking versus grappling. Ilia Topuria (11-0) has faced three very good fighters to begin his UFC career and disposed of the last two rather quickly with first-round knockouts. Topuria has solid power and a very slick, sneaky ground game as told by his seven wins by submission. This doesn’t bode well for Jai Herbert (11-3), who is a pure striker with good power. I was very impressed with Topuria in his last fight versus Ryan Hall—a phenomenal grappler Topuria engaged with on the ground, had his way with, and chose to finish the fight with punches.

Herbert has a massive reach advantage, which is good as a striker, but his 30% takedown defense is a huge red flag. Topuria averages 3.35 takedowns and 3.4 submission attempts per 15 minutes and is aware he shouldn’t engage in a striking battle with Herbert here due to the reach advantage, making the path of victory very obvious. Herbert’s weakness is Topuria’s strength and I think on the ground is where this fight will go and ultimately end.

Risk: 1 unit on FanDuel to win 1.35 units. (Playable up to +100)

Arnold Allen (-115, DraftKings) Over Dan Hooker

We have a fight of the night candidate with this matchup. There’s something to be said about Dan Hooker (21-11), and it’s that he has zero quit in his body. This has led to many wars in the cage and that comes with a price. You take so much damage when you absorb just as much as you dish out. He lands 4.9 strikes per 15 minutes while taking 4.61. No shame in losing three of his last four fights against two recent title challengers (Dustin Poirier and Michael Chandler) and one that will soon compete for a belt (Islam Makhachev). If we go a bit beyond that, we run into his fight against Edson Barboza where he took a level of damage that you just wish Dan Hooker’s corner threw in the towel. Your reaction times take a blow over time when you’re in constant wars and Hooker seems to be slowing down a bit even though his age says he shouldn’t be.

Arnold Allen (17-1) is just running through everyone. A well-rounded fighter with five wins by knockout and four by submission, Allen brings a relentless pace and pressure. We may see him go for the takedown more often in this spot to negate Hooker’s large reach advantage on the feet. Allen implements a gritty, dirty style of boxing and grappling where he just stays on you and doesn’t allow you to get into space, and will just smother you all night long. I see this fight going the distance and Allen, due to his grappling, has more outs than Hooker over 15 minutes. Give me Allen to extend his winning streak.

Risk: 1.15 units on DraftKings to win 1 unit.

Be sure to check out the 4for4 Discord where I’ll be analyzing fights live, giving my predictions for every fight and potentially more picks. See you there!

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