UFC Fight Night: dos Anjos vs. Fiziev Best Bets & Betting Preview

UFC 276 was just about everything I expected it to be and we came away with a very solid +2.44 units night while going 9-2 on card picks. Following big PPVs are typically weaker cards. While that trend sort of continues this week, that doesn't mean we don't have value to grab. Let's get started.

UFC Fight Night: dos Anjos vs. Fiziev Best Bets

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Rafael dos Anjos (+190, BetMGM) Over Rafael Fiziev

Winner of five straight, Rafael Fiziev comes in with an 11-1 record and looking to add his biggest test to date to his resume. With very fundamental and technical striking, Fiziev does a phenomenal job switching up his attack and knows what spots to load up in versus just touching the opponent.

With 44 fights under his belt, Rafael dos Anjos brings a two-fight win streak and loads of experience into this bout. He also offers one of the more well-rounded games with polished striking and a black belt in BJJ he may want to use in this one. We haven't seen Rafael Fiziev have to grapple his way out of danger so there's an avenue Fiziev will have to prove he can defend at an elite level. This is also Fiziev's first five-round fight, which adds some concern given his conditioning issues. He likes to get off to a hot start but he may choose to preserve energy early on which would mitigate his early-round edge. I see dos Anjos going for the takedowns early and often to test Fiziev, trying to tire him out as the fight goes on. The weakness and unknowns of Fiziev are major strengths for the durable dos Anjos who has gone five full rounds in six of his last eight fights.

Risk: 1 unit on BetMGM to win 1.9 units.

Ronnie Lawrence (-130, DraftKings) Over Saidyokub Kakhramonov

If you're in the 4for4 Discord (and you should be), you know all about #FFF. First Fight Fade is a rule I use for betting, DFS, parlays, etc. These fights are usually low-level MMA, with fighters on their way off of the roster. Weird things happen often in those situations. With that said, I can't figure out why this is the first fight as it could be an absolute banger.

Ronnie Lawrence is starting to get on a roll with three fairly dominating wins under the UFC umbrella. His high motor wrestling is something to admire and has led him to two unanimous decisions and a late knockout (KO) win. Lawrence has accumulated 26 takedowns in his three fights and while they're not against the toughest competition, that is an absurd number and shows how strong his conditioning is to be able to keep on that pace for 15 minutes.

He takes on Saidyokub Kakhramonov, who got his UFC debut win on short notice against Trevin Jones. He had some very strong fights before his debut including a decent 2018 performance against Umar Nurmagomedov, who is now 15-0 and on a tear in the UFC, and an impressive quick KO victory versus Askar Askar. There's nothing flashy in his game but he features a good striking game and isn't afraid to get dirty in the clinch, but this moment seems a bit too big for him. He still shows very raw tendencies in his overall game and Lawrence's 78% takedown accuracy with volume should be too much to handle for three rounds. Wrestling, conditioning, and non-stop pace get Lawrence the nod.

Risk: 1.3 units on DraftKings to win 1 unit.

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