Scott Smith’s UFC 276 Adesanya vs. Cannonier Best Bets

UFC 276 comes to Las Vegas with two championships on the line. Fan-favorite Israel Adesanya defends his middleweight title against powerhouse Jared Cannonier. In a featherweight battle, Alexander Volkanovski takes on Max Holloway for the third time after two closely contested decisions. This card features a number of exciting matchups and competitive lines that should keep fans intrigued. Coming off some live props that missed, we countered with a +550 value play on Mateusz Gamrot last week. We will look to capitalize on another value play this week in our UFC 276 best bets.

Scott Smith’s Best bets for UFC 276 Adesanya vs Cannonier

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Israel Adesanya vs. Jared Cannonier Goes to Decision (-104, FanDuel)

The Main Event features fan-favorite Israel Adesanya chasing middleweight greatness. Jared Cannonier has won four of his last five fights, earning his shot at the title. Both of these fighters have a history of common opponents with Adesanya holding the advantage (5-3).

Jared Cannonier is one of the more unique fighters in UFC history. Starting as a heavyweight, Cannonier has finished fights in three different weight classes. His body transformation going to the welterweight division has been amazing. He has kept the power and comes into nearly all of his matches as the more physically imposing fighter. Cannonier is a smart, patient fighter with little wasted movement. With strong leg kicks and powerful hands, Cannonier is a threat to damage opponents at all three levels. He rarely looks to take the fight to the ground but could have the advantage over Adesanya should he land on top.

Adesanya is the best middleweight since Anderson Silva, a fighter that both he and Cannonier hold wins over. Adesanya is one of the most diverse strikers in the UFC. He is a master at controlling distance and movement. He rarely takes damage and sets traps forcing his opponents to overextend in their attempts to land strikes. The one concern in this fight for Adesanya is in the pull-back he uses to pull out of range of punches. At times that can leave his hands low and chin high. That technique leaves a slim margin for error and is dangerous, but Adesanya has thus far seemed to master it. This fight should take place on the feet where Adesanya simply has more tools to win this fight. Four of Adesanya’s last five fights have gone to decision and he has only finished 36% of his UFC fights. That trend lends itself nicely to this line.

Paths To Victory: Jered Cannonier possesses the power needed to land a shot to finish this fight. Adesanya, however, has yet to show he has trouble with power fighters. He should be able to control the distance and use movement to stay at range and outpoint Cannonier. This fight outcome hangs solely on Adesanya’s willingness to engage.

Prediction: Adesanya by decision.

Risk: 1.04 units on FanDuel to win 1 unit. (Playable up to -120)

Parlay of the Week

Maycee Barber/Jessica-Rose Clark (+122, DraftKings)

Jessica Eye vs. Maycee Barber Fight Breakdown

This fight pits veteran Jessica Eye and young prospect Maycee Barber. Eye is a tough customer in the women’s division but ultimately is 5-9-1 against UFC competition. She is willing to compete and fights with tough, forward pressure. The biggest issue for Eye is she is completely inaccurate on the feet, landing less than 37% of her strikes. Her best bet to win this fight will be to grind and make this a dirty fight.

Barber came into the UFC as one of the top women’s prospects with hopes of becoming the youngest champion ever. Barber has bounced back with two wins after dropping losses to Alexa Grasso and Roxanne Modafferi. With questions about her mental toughness in those losses, Barber has been putting in work and developing her game at Team Alpha Male and should be able to put those concerns to rest with a win over the tough veteran. Barber comes into this matchup as one of the safer plays on this card. According to my rating, she has a projected win probability of 69%.

Jessica-Rose Clark vs. Julija Stoliarenko Fight Breakdown

Low-level women’s fights usually have a lot of variance due to a lack of skills. This matchup will offer much of the same. Julija Stoliarenko is winless in four attempts at the UFC level. She is a willing striker but ultimately a specialist who is dangerous off her back with good arm bars. The issue for Stoliarenko is that she offers little ability and technique to get the fight to the mat.

Jessica-Rose Clark will have the striking advantage and is the better fighter. The question for Clark comes down to her fight IQ. In her last match against Stephanie Egger, she made the mistake of playing the clinch against the judo expert, leading to her being submitted. Clark should stay aware of taking this fight to the mat and should be able to dictate this fight taking place on the feet. As long as she sticks to that game plan she should be able to use her jab and take this to a decision win.

Risk: 1 unit on DraftKings to win 1.22 units. (Playable up to 100)

Value Play of the Week

Max Holloway to Win by Decision (+310, FanDuel)

Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski have fought for 10 rounds with Volkanovski winning both fights. Normally when a fighter wins the first two fights, there is little reason for a trilogy. That is not the case with this fight. Volkanovski won the first matchup in a very close decision. He attacked the legs of Holloway and edged a close decision. The rematch also went to Volkanovski, although many who watched the fight felt Holloway was the victor. An arguable, razor-thin decision win for Volkanovski is the reason we are here a third time. It’s hard to see the action in this fight going much differently than the first two did. Holloway is motivated and has dedicated himself to his strength and conditioning to gain an edge in this fight. Expect this fight to go another five rounds between the two best featherweights on the planet. This line, however, offers value on Holloway and is in no way representative of how close the first two were.

Risk: .33 units on FanDuel to win 1.02 units. (Playable down to +250)

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